In-Depth Analysis of the Impact of Surging HBM Demand on the Memory Chip Landscape

Based on the latest collected market data and industry information, I have prepared a systematic and comprehensive in-depth analysis report on the impact of surging HBM memory demand on the memory chip landscape.

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High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), a new-generation high-performance memory technology, is profoundly reshaping the global memory chip industry landscape. With the explosive growth in demand for training and inference of large AI models, HBM has become a core component of AI data centers, smart terminals, and high-performance computing systems [1][2].

According to forecasts from industry research institutions, the global HBM market will exhibit exponential growth:

• 2024
  : Market size of approximately $14 billion
• 2025
  : Projected to reach $28 billion (100% YoY growth)
• 2026
  : Projected to reach $45 billion
• 2027
  : Projected to reach $65 billion
• 2028
  : Projected to exceed the $100 billion mark [1][3]

Micron Technology predicted at its earnings conference that the total addressable market (TAM) for HBM will reach $100 billion in 2028, achieving this two years earlier than previous guidance, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 40% [4].

The current global HBM market presents a

landscape, with SK Hynix occupying a leading position through first-mover advantage:

Manufacturer	Market Share (Q3 2025)	Competitive Advantage
SK Hynix	53%	First manufacturer to mass-produce HBM3E, deeply integrated with NVIDIA
Samsung Electronics	35%	Vertical integration advantage, aggressive capacity expansion plan
Micron Technology	11%	Technology follower, focused on AI memory solutions [5]

Notably, UBS predicts that SK Hynix will capture approximately 70% of the HBM4 market for NVIDIA’s next-generation Rubin platform in 2026, further solidifying its market leadership [6].

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2025 marks the entry of the memory industry into a new “super cycle”, whose intensity has been compared to the semiconductor industry boom of the 1990s [1]. Bank of America defines 2026 as a “super cycle similar to the 1990s”, predicting that global DRAM revenue will grow 51% YoY and NAND flash revenue will grow 45% [1].

Product Category	Price Increase	Notes
DDR4 Memory	+2233%	Soared from $3 to $70
DDR5 Memory	+307%	Rose 30% in one week
Surveillance Hard Drives	Over +30%	Transmitted from tight supply and demand
NAND Flash	+50%	Contract prices continue to rise [4][7]

The price of a 256GB DDR5 server memory module has exceeded RMB 49,999, equivalent to the value of a residential property [4].

: Leading manufacturers are shifting production capacity from traditional memory chips to high-value-added AI memory products.

• Samsung Electronics
  : Clearly stated in 2025 that it will cease production of DDR4 within the year, focusing capacity on DDR5, LPDDR5, and HBM [7]
• SK Hynix
  : 85%-90% of capital expenditure is invested in the DRAM sector, with HBM-related investment reaching 2 trillion KRW [1]
• Micron Technology
  : Will gradually reduce DDR4 shipments until production cessation within the next 6-9 months, fully betting on AI memory [7]

This capacity structural shift has led to a supply-demand imbalance of “insufficient supply for excessive demand” in the traditional memory chip market, causing spot DRAM prices to continue soaring.

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The surging HBM demand has directly driven astonishing stock price growth for memory chip companies:

Company	Ticker	1-Year Stock Price Growth	Current Price	Market Capitalization
SK Hynix	000660.KS	+394.44%	756,000 KRW	~$85 billion
Micron Technology	MU	+310.54%	$362.75	$40.8 billion
Samsung Electronics	005930.KS	+113.32%	148,900 KRW	~$320 billion [8][9]

Micron Technology has performed particularly strongly recently, with a 60.85% monthly gain and a 79.24% three-month gain, and the market has highly recognized the prospects of its HBM business [9].

: Two major memory giants have both achieved record-breaking performance:

• Samsung Electronics
  : The memory division’s operating profit reached 17 trillion KRW, up 250% YoY, with ASP rising over 40% [1]
• SK Hynix
  : Revenue reached 30.7 trillion KRW, operating profit reached 17.1 trillion KRW, with an operating margin of nearly 56% [1]

HBM and high-density DDR5 products have become the core growth drivers.

Facing a situation of supply shortage, memory chip giants have increased their investment efforts one after another:

Company	2025 CapEx	2026 CapEx Forecast	Investment Focus
Samsung Electronics	33 trillion KRW	Over 40 trillion KRW	DRAM (90%), HBM
SK Hynix	28 trillion KRW	Over 35 trillion KRW	DRAM (85-90%), HBM [1]

:

• SK Hynix: Construction of the first manufacturing plant in the Yongin Semiconductor Cluster has been accelerated, with a scale equivalent to six M15X factories [4]
• Samsung Electronics: Restarted the fifth production line at the Pyeongtaek plant in November 2024, with production scheduled to start in 2028 [4]
• Micron Technology: The first wafer fab in Idaho is expected to start production in mid-2027 [4]

In addition, SK Hynix announced a $13 billion investment to build a new advanced packaging plant, which is expected to be completed in 2027 and fully operational in 2028 [5].

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The launch of NVIDIA’s next-generation Rubin architecture has officially ignited the “HBM4 Memory War” [6]. Different from previous-generation products, HBM4 is not just an increase in capacity, but a fundamental restructuring of the interaction method between memory and logic, to support the computing needs of trillion-parameter AI models.

:

• 2025
  : HBM3E remains the flagship product, expected to account for two-thirds of HBM shipments
• Early 2026
  : 12-Hi HBM4 enters mass supply stage
• Second Half of 2026
  : 16-Hi HBM4 (possibly named HBM4E) is expected to start shipping [6][10]

NVIDIA has required memory manufacturers to deliver 16-Hi HBM4 chips by Q4 2026 [10].

The HBM4 competition landscape has split into two strategic camps:

Camp	Representative Manufacturers	Strategic Model	Core Advantage
Foundry-Memory Alliance	SK Hynix, Micron	Collaborate with TSMC to manufacture base chips	Leverage TSMC’s advanced logic process
Vertical Integration Model	Samsung Electronics	Independent R&D and production across the entire industrial chain	High internal collaboration efficiency [6]

The “One-Team” collaboration model between SK Hynix, Micron, and TSMC enables their memory products to perfectly match NVIDIA’s Rubin GPUs manufactured by TSMC [6]. Samsung is betting on Hybrid Bonding technology, and if it can stabilize yield, it is expected to reverse the situation.

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The price increases of HBM and memory chips are having a profound impact on the entire technology industrial chain:

:

• Memory chips already account for 40% of data center procurement costs, and are expected to exceed 50% in 2025 [4]
• Server procurement costs for major players such as Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud continue to rise

:

• Smartphones
  : Embedded memory costs for mobile phones in 2026 face pressure to double compared to 2025, with LPDDR4X/5X increases potentially reaching 30%-35% [4]
• PC Industry
  : Skyrocketing memory module prices have led to increased overall machine costs
• Automotive Electronics
  : Automakers such as NIO stated that their biggest cost pressure in 2025 comes from memory price increases [4]

OpenAI’s “Stargate” project needs to purchase 900,000 DRAM wafers per month, accounting for nearly 40% of global total DRAM capacity [7]. The focus of the AI industry is extending from data training to inference services, further igniting the demand for high-capacity memory.

Server-side DRAM demand in 2026 is projected to surge 21% YoY compared to 2025 [4].

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Against the backdrop of Micron’s products failing China’s cybersecurity review, domestic memory chips have ushered in a key development window:

:

• Established a foothold in “edge markets” such as IoT, new energy vehicles, and industrial control
• Secured orders for core infrastructure such as Party and government agencies, military, and financial data centers

:

• Steadily improved yield in data center and client SSD sectors

• Technology Gap
  : There is a clear generational gap between domestic HBM technology and that of international giants
• Capacity Bottleneck
  : Severe shortage of advanced packaging capacity
• Equipment Restrictions
  : Import restrictions on high-end semiconductor equipment

1. Edge Encircles Core Strategy
   : Achieve breakthroughs first in fields with relatively low performance requirements but high demand, such as IoT and new energy vehicles
2. Layout of New Compute-in-Memory Architecture
   : Bet on next-generation technology routes to achieve overtaking on curves
3. Industrial Chain Collaboration
   : Strengthen cooperation with domestic wafer foundry enterprises to build an independent and controllable ecosystem [4]

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Theme	Beneficiary Targets	Rationale
HBM Leader	SK Hynix (000660.KS)	53% market share, integrated with NVIDIA
High-Growth AI Memory	Micron Technology (MU)	HBM business sold out, valuation reconstruction
Memory Equipment	Netac Technology, Taekwang Industrial	Capacity expansion drives equipment demand
Domestic Substitution	ChangXin Memory-related Concepts	Policy support + domestic substitution demand

Risk Type	Details
Overcapacity Risk	HBM oversupply may occur in 2027, entering a price correction phase [6]
Technology Iteration Risk	Uncertainty in HBM4/HBM5 technology routes
Geopolitical Risk	Intensifying localization trend of semiconductor supply chains
Demand Shortfall Risk	Slowdown in AI investment growth may affect demand
Intensified Competition Risk	Samsung and Micron are accelerating their catch-up efforts, which may reshape the market landscape [1]

Current Valuation of Micron Technology:

• P/E Ratio: 34.27x
• P/B Ratio: 6.94x
• ROE: 22.43%
• Net Profit Margin: 28.15% [9]

The analyst consensus rating is “Buy”, but it should be noted that the current price is approximately 10% higher than the average target price ($330) [9].

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The surging demand for HBM memory is profoundly reshaping the global memory chip industry landscape, with the main conclusions as follows:

1. Market Scale Expansion
   : The HBM market will grow from $14 billion in 2024 to $100 billion in 2028, becoming the most dynamic segment in the semiconductor industry.
2. Competition Landscape Restructuring
   : SK Hynix will still dominate the HBM market in the short term through first-mover advantage and deep integration with NVIDIA, but the catch-up momentum of Samsung and Micron cannot be ignored.
3. Price Super Cycle
   : Memory chips are experiencing unprecedented price increases, with traditional DDR4 rising over 20x, but risks of price correction after 2026 need to be watched out for.
4. Industrial Chain Transmission
   : Cost pressure is being transmitted to end-user markets, which may lead to price increases for end-user products such as smartphones, PCs, and automobiles.
5. China’s Opportunities and Challenges
   : Domestic memory chips have achieved breakthroughs in edge markets, but still face a large gap in high-end HBM, and need to achieve breakthroughs through differentiated strategies.

For investors, it is recommended to focus on memory leading enterprises with leading HBM capacity layout and deep integration with AI chip manufacturers, while paying attention to long-term investment opportunities brought by the domestic substitution theme.

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[1] Global Semi Research - 2026 Memory Industry Insights (https://globalsemiresearch.substack.com/p/2026-memory-industry-insights)
[2] SK hynix News - 2026 Market Outlook: SK hynix’s HBM to Fuel AI Memory Supercycle (https://news.skhynix.com/2026-market-outlook-focus-on-the-hbm-led-memory-supercycle/)
[3] The Business Research Company - High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Market Analysis (https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com)
[4] Weikehao - Memory Capacity Expansion “Stalled”? (https://mp.ofweek.com/Internet/a656714859577)
[5] Yahoo Finance - SK Hynix Bets $13 Billion To Lock In AI Memory Dominance (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sk-hynix-bets-13-billion-003113661.html)
[6] Financial Content - The 2026 HBM4 Memory War (https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/tokenring-2026-1-15-the-2026-hbm4-memory-war-sk-hynix-samsung-and-micron-battle-for-nvidias-rubin-crown)
[7] Beijing News Shell Finance - Looking Back at 2025 | Memory Prices Change Daily, the “Hot Chip Matters” of Huaqiang North Merchants (https://m.bjnews.com.cn/detail/1766626384129974.html)
[8] Jinling API Data - Stock Price Performance of Major Memory Chip Companies
[9] Jinling API Data - Micron Technology (MU) Company Profile and Financial Data
[10] TweakTown - SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron fighting for NVIDIA supply contracts for new 16-Hi HBM4 orders (https://www.tweaktown.com/news/109495/sk-hynix-samsung-and-micron-fighting-for-nvidia-supply-contracts-for-new-16-hi-hbm4-orders/index.html)