Baidu (BIDU): Analysis of Apollo Go's Overseas Commercial Operation Expansion and Its Impact on Valuation

Based on the comprehensive data and analysis I have collected, I now present a systematic and detailed report for you.

On January 17, 2026, Baidu’s Apollo Go, in partnership with K2’s AutoGo, a local autonomous driving mobility company in the UAE, officially launched a fully driverless commercial ride-hailing service for the public on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi [1][2]. This milestone marks the first large-scale fully driverless operation of China’s autonomous driving technology in an overseas market, with important strategic significance.

• March 2025
  : Apollo Go and AutoGo reached a strategic partnership to enter the Abu Dhabi market [3]
• November 10, 2025
  : Received one of the first fully driverless commercial operation licenses issued by the Integrated Transport Centre (ITC) of Abu Dhabi [2]
• November 2025
  : Signed a cooperation agreement for the next phase of expansion
• January 17, 2026
  : Officially launched service to the public

Apollo Go has launched operations in 22 cities worldwide, with cumulative autonomous driving mileage exceeding 240 million kilometers, including over 140 million kilometers of fully driverless mileage. It has provided over 17 million ride services globally, firmly maintaining its position as the world’s largest autonomous driving mobility service provider [2][3].

• China
  : Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Changsha, Hong Kong, and 8+ other cities (total 16+)
• Middle East
  : Dubai, Abu Dhabi
• Europe
  : Switzerland (launched AmiGo in partnership with PostBus), Germany, UK (planned 2026 in partnership with Lyft)
• Southeast Asia
  : Singapore

JPMorgan recently released a research report reassessing Baidu Cloud and its driverless business, assigning a valuation of $79.6 billion to Baidu, with Apollo Go independently valued at approximately $40 billion [5]. This valuation reassessment reflects the market’s renewed recognition of the value of Baidu’s autonomous driving business.

Based on the DCF model data I obtained [0], Baidu’s valuation has significant upside potential:

• Base case uses 5-year historical average data
• Revenue Growth Rate: 5.6%
• EBITDA Margin: 31.1%
• WACC: 4.3%
• Beta Coefficient: 0.29 (low-beta stock, strong downside resistance)

As the world’s largest Robotaxi mobility platform, Apollo Go’s independent business value is being repriced by the market:

According to the latest data, Apollo Go’s Wuhan operation has achieved per-vehicle profitability, with gross profit margin surging from -120% in 2023 to 35% in Q2 2025 [6]. This profitability inflection point verifies the feasibility of the Robotaxi business model.

In Q2 2025, Apollo Go’s Robotaxi paid service revenue reached $625 million, representing a 78.6% year-over-year increase and a 25% quarter-over-quarter increase [6]. High-frequency order growth (weekly paid orders exceeding 250,000) provides a solid foundation for valuation.

The per-unit cost of the 6th-generation driverless vehicle is only RMB 200,000 (approximately $29,000), a 60% decrease compared to the 5th-generation model [5]. Compared to Waymo’s vehicle cost (approximately $100,000), the cost advantage is significant, which is conducive to large-scale expansion and profitability improvement.

According to industry research data [6][7], major global Robotaxi players can be divided into two tiers:

• Baidu/Waymo/Pony.ai/WeRide
  : Multi-sensor Fusion + HD Maps + Combined Modular and End-to-End Approach
• Tesla
  : Vision-Only + Mapless + End-to-End (most unconventional, but strong technical capabilities)

The success of fully driverless commercial operations in Abu Dhabi marks the recognition of China’s autonomous driving technology by the Middle Eastern market. Considering the Middle Eastern region’s:

• Hot desert environment (extreme climate validation)
• High regulatory standards (strict license review)
• International operation standards (high service quality requirements)

This breakthrough will significantly enhance Apollo Go’s brand awareness and credibility in the global market, laying the foundation for subsequent entry into European and American markets.

According to forecasts from Frost & Sullivan and Soochow Securities [5][7]:

• China is expected to become the world’s largest Robotaxi market by 2030
• Apollo Go holds approximately 40% of China’s Robotaxi market share
• Scale cost advantages and rapid technological iteration are expected to continue to consolidate its leading position

• Current Price: $149.53
• 52-Week Range: $77.97 - $152.76
• Technical Support Level: $137.98
• Technical Resistance Level: $152.21
• Beta: 0.29 (low volatility, strong downside resistance) [0]

1. Short-Term (1-3 Months):
   • Q4 FY2025 Earnings Report (February 17, 2026) with increased contribution from Robotaxi business
   • Hong Kong business expansion (received pilot license)
   • Progress on European market deployment

2. Mid-Term (3-12 Months):
   • Replication of Wuhan’s profitability model to more cities
   • Value unlocking from Kunlun chip business spin-off
   • Large-scale order growth in overseas business

3. Long-Term (1-3 Years):
   • Network effects from 20+ global cities
   • Regulatory breakthroughs for driverless technology (large-scale L3/L4 deployment)
   • Verification of technical strength through head-to-head competition with Tesla’s Robotaxi

• Conservative Target: $160 (+7%)
• Mid-Term Target: $188 (JPMorgan, +26%)
• Bullish Target: $215 (Benchmark, +44%)

1. Apollo Go has achieved a major breakthrough in overseas commercial operations
   : The launch of fully driverless commercial operations in Abu Dhabi marks the first large-scale overseas deployment of China’s autonomous driving technology, a milestone achievement.
2. Significant valuation reassessment upside
   : JPMorgan has assigned a valuation of $79.6 billion to Baidu, with Apollo Go independently valued at approximately $40 billion. The DCF model indicates a significant discount in the current stock price.
3. China’s autonomous driving technology has international competitiveness
   : It has formed differentiated competitive advantages in cost control, operating scale, scenario coverage, and internationalization speed, forming a three-way competitive landscape with Waymo and Tesla.
4. Profitability model has been verified
   : The Wuhan operation’s positive per-vehicle gross profit margin (35%) proves the feasibility of the Robotaxi business model, laying the foundation for large-scale expansion.

• Apollo Go’s European market deployment (Germany, UK)
• Fleet size expansion to hundreds of vehicles (Abu Dhabi)
• Replication of Wuhan’s profitability model to more cities
• Q4 FY2025 Earnings Report (February 17, 2026) performance validation
• Progress on Kunlun business spin-off

• The global Robotaxi market is expected to reach $66.6 billion by 2030, with Baidu expected to capture a 20-25% market share
• China will account for approximately 58.5% of the market, and Baidu, as the industry leader, will benefit significantly
• Technological iteration and cost reduction will drive continuous improvement in profitability

Apollo Go’s overseas expansion is not only a major catalyst for Baidu’s valuation but also an important milestone for China’s autonomous driving technology to go global. In the trillion-dollar global Robotaxi market, Baidu is expected to become one of the world’s leading autonomous driving mobility companies leveraging its cost advantages, operational experience, and first-mover advantage.

[1] PR Newswire - Baidu’s Apollo Go and K2’s AutoGo Commence Fully Autonomous Ride-Hailing Service on Yas Island (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/baidus-apollo-go-and-k2s-autogo-commence-fully-autonomous-ride-hailing-service-on-yas-island-announce-phased-expansion-across-abu-dhabi-302663468.html)

[2] Baidu Official Website - Two Good News from Abu Dhabi for Apollo Go (https://home.baidu.com/home/index/news_detail/id/18044)

[3] Apollo Go Official Website - News and Information (https://www.apollogo.com/ch/news)

[4] Yahoo Finance - Benchmark Raises Baidu (BIDU) Price Target to $215 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benchmark-raises-baidu-bidu-price-203639550.html)

[5] The Paper - Trillion-Dollar Robotaxi Market Ignites! Baidu Reassessed at $79.6 Billion (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_31103165)

[6] Soochow Securities - In-Depth Report on the Robotaxi Industry (http://testtoo1.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/eastmoney_pdf/AP202509191746456759.pdf)

[7] Huaxin Securities - Business Model Outlook for Robotaxi (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202409201639951334_1.pdf)

[8] OFweek - Six Major Global Autonomous Driving Robotaxi Developments (https://nev.ofweek.com/2025-12/ART-77015-8420-30677892.html)

Report Generation Date: January 17, 2026
Data Sources: Jinling API (real-time market data), News API, major financial media