Assessment of the Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Energy Markets and Global Supply Chain Stock Valuations

Based on the latest market data, real-time quotes, and in-depth analysis, I will provide you with a comprehensive assessment report on the impact of changing geopolitical risks on energy markets and global supply chain stock valuations.

As of January 17, 2026, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its 1,423rd day, with geopolitical risks continuing to evolve[1]. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the Ukrainian team will travel to the United States for security guarantee negotiations, marking potential substantive progress in the peace process. However, the current conflict situation remains severe: Russia’s continuous strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have left the country with “no power plant untouched”, and Zelenskyy has declared a state of energy emergency in Ukraine[2].

• Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has suffered devastating damage, with nighttime temperatures dropping to minus 20 degrees Celsius, posing enormous challenges to repair work
• European energy security continues to be under pressure, with countries accelerating the diversification of energy sources
• Russian crude oil is sold at a discount, with the 2025 average price dropping to $55.60 per barrel, below the $58 budget benchmark[3]

Geopolitical risks are multi-polar; in addition to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the following events also affect the energy market:

• Venezuela Situation
  : U.S. intervention has drastically changed Venezuela’s oil supply pattern, and U.S. oil companies (such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron) face policy uncertainty[4]
• Tense Middle East Situation
  : Crude oil futures plunged 3.3% on January 15, 2026, reflecting that the geopolitical risk premium is receding from the market[5]

The current energy market is characterized by “coexisting geopolitical risks and structural supply surplus”:

• Non-OPEC oil producers hit record output (US, Brazil, Guyana)
• Structural decline in Chinese demand
• Refined products (rather than crude oil) have become more attractive investment targets[6]

• MACD indicator shows a “no crossover, bullish” signal
• KDJ Indicator: K=82.3, D=77.2, J=92.4 →
  Overbought Warning
• RSI Indicator →
  Overbought Risk
• Price Range: $122.29 (support) - $131.16 (resistance)
• Trend Judgment: Sideways consolidation, no clear direction

• Energy stocks generally have low beta coefficients (0.36-0.68), indicating low correlation with the broader market
• Chevron (CVX) hit a 52-week high of $169.37, showing the strongest performance
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) is near its all-time high of $131.72, facing technical pressure

Scenario analysis based on DCF models shows significant valuation discounts for energy stocks[0]:

• There is a huge gap between current market prices and intrinsic value, reflecting market concerns about long-term energy demand
• The divergence between low beta coefficients (0.36) and high intrinsic value suggests that the market may be underestimating the risk-adjusted returns of energy stocks
• In WACC calculations, energy stocks have a low cost of equity (only 7.1% for XOM), reflecting expectations of relatively stable cash flows

According to the latest research, global supply chains face five core risks in 2026[7]:

• Research shows that elevated geopolitical risks can reduce international trade by 20-30%, equivalent to an 11% increase in global tariffs[7]

• The industrial sector (+0.42%) led the market
  , reflecting investor confidence in economic activity recovery[0]
• Caterpillar (CAT)
  : A P/E ratio of 33.21 shows the market is giving a growth premium, benefiting from infrastructure investment and expectations of global trade recovery
• Boeing (BA)
  : Rebounded sharply from its low; although it still faces operational challenges, order backlogs provide support

• Logistics sector under pressure
  : UPS (-1.57%) and FDX (-1.59%) fell on the day, reflecting concerns about the outlook for global trade
• Boeing (BA)
  : Still in a loss-making state (negative P/E), indicating structural challenges
• Beta coefficient divergence
  : The overall beta of supply chain stocks (0.88-1.25) is higher than that of energy stocks (0.36-0.68), making them more sensitive to macro risks

The semiconductor industry is a core focus of supply chain risks:

• AI-driven growth
  : 93% of semiconductor industry leaders expect revenue growth in 2026[8]
• Supply bottlenecks
  : Shortages of neon gas and rare earth metals, plus Chinese export restrictions, have exacerbated supply concerns
• Capacity delays
  : TSMC’s Arizona plant has been delayed until 2028, exacerbating supply chain tensions[8]
• Geopolitical risk premium
  : Upstream challenges persist, from the Ukraine war to Chinese export restrictions

Geopolitical Events
      │
      ├─→ Risk of Energy Supply Disruption ──→ Oil Price Volatility ──→ Revenue Expectations for Energy Companies
      │
      ├─→ Trade Route Disruption ──→ Rising Logistics Costs ──→ Profit Margins of Supply Chain Stocks
      │
      ├─→ Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions ──→ Risk of Asset Impairment ──→ Valuation Discounts
      │
      └─→ Macroeconomic Uncertainty ──→ Adjustments to Demand Expectations ──→ Valuation Reassessment

• Tactical Reduction
  : Falling oil prices have pressured upstream earnings; XOM expects Q4 upstream earnings to decrease by $1.2 billion[4]
• Focus on Refining Assets
  : Refined products outperform crude oil; select companies with a high proportion of refining capacity
• Technical Focus
  : XOM faces strong resistance at $131.16, with short-term adjustment pressure

• Focus for Value Investors
  : DCF valuations show 300%-500% upside potential for XOM and CVX
• Focus on Dividend Income
  : High dividends of energy stocks provide defensive protection (XOM’s dividend yield is approximately 3.5%)
• Geopolitical Risk Hedging
  : Allocate some oil and gas assets as a hedge against inflation/geopolitical risks

• Energy Security Theme
  : Countries prioritize energy security, benefiting companies with diversified assets
• Natural Gas Transition
  : CVX’s investment in the expansion of the Leviathan gas field (valued at over $35 billion) demonstrates long-term strategic layout[9]

• Avoid High-Beta Stocks
  : Supply chain stocks are sensitive to macro risks and have high volatility
• Focus on Marginal Changes in Logistics Costs
  : Falling oil prices benefit the profit margins of logistics companies

• Industrial Cycle Recovery
  : The industrial sector leading the market (+0.42%) signals a rebound in economic activity
• Selective Allocation
  : Prioritize leading industrial equipment companies with pricing power (CAT)

• Supply Chain Restructuring Theme
  : Trends toward diversified procurement and regionalized production benefit related equipment investments
• Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency
  : The investment theme of chip self-sufficiency will benefit in the long term

• Oil Price Volatility
  : The energy sector equivalent of the VIX, reflecting geopolitical risk premiums
• Relative Performance of Energy Stocks
  : Relative performance of XLE/XOP ETFs
• Supply Chain Leading Indicators
  : Baltic Dry Index (BDI), Global Manufacturing PMI
• Geopolitical Event Calendar
  : Progress of Ukraine peace negotiations, China-US high-level dialogues

1. Divergence between Geopolitical Risks and Fundamentals
   : The current energy market is characterized by “frequent geopolitical risks but supply surplus dominating prices”. The 3.3% plunge in crude oil prices on January 15, 2026, shows that fundamental forces are reshaping market pricing[5]
2. Attractive Valuations for Energy Stocks
   : DCF models show that the intrinsic value of XOM and CVX has 300%-500% upside potential relative to their current share prices, and their low beta coefficients offer defensive properties[0]
3. Significant Divergence in Supply Chain Stocks
   : Leading industrial equipment companies (CAT) perform strongly, while logistics companies (UPS, FDX) face demand uncertainty, and the geopolitical risk premium for semiconductor supply chains remains elevated[7][8]
4. Differentiated Investment Strategies Needed
   : Energy stocks are suitable for long-term value investors, while supply chain stocks require grasping cyclical rhythms; the difference in their beta coefficients provides diversification opportunities

[1] Al Jazeera - “Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,423” (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/17/russia-ukraine-war-list-of-key-events-day-1423)

[2] Energy News - “Zelenskiy declares energy emergency in Ukraine” (https://energynews.oedigital.com/energy-markets/2026/01/14/zelenskiy-declares-energy-emergency-in-ukraine-to-deal-with-aftermath-of-russian-attacks)

[3] RBC Ukraine - “No power plants left untouched by Russian strikes” (https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/no-power-plants-left-untouched-by-russian-1768557443.html)

[4] Yahoo Finance - “Crude Oil Price Will Likely Remain Soft: Will ExxonMobil Suffer?” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-price-likely-remain-175700219.html)

[5] Chronicle Journal Markets - “Crude Oil Futures Plunge 3.3% as Geopolitical Risk Evaporates” (http://markets.chroniclejournal.com/chroniclejournal/article/marketminute-2026-1-15-crude-oil-futures-plunge-33-as-geopolitical-risk-evaporates-and-supply-surpluses-loom)

[6] Hedgepoint Global Markets - “Oil Market Update – January 2026: Geopolitical Risks vs. Structural Supply Surplus” (https://hedgepointglobal.com/en/blog/oil-market-update-january-2026-geopolitical-risks-vs.-structural-supply-surplus)

[7] EDC Canada - “Top 10 global risks for Canadian exporters in 2026” (https://www.edc.ca/en/article/edc-top-10-global-risks.html)

[8] The Street - “The new reality of global supply chains: From pandemic to AI” (https://www.thestreet.com/technology/the-new-reality-of-global-supply-chains)

[9] Yahoo Finance - “Chevron & Partners Approve Leviathan Expansion Project in Israel” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-partners-approve-leviathan-165600160.html)

[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Real-time market data, financial analysis, and DCF valuation models