Analysis of the Impact of SF Holdings and J&T Express' HK$8.3 Billion Strategic Cross-Holding on the Domestic Express Delivery Market Competition Pattern

Based on the collected detailed information, I will systematically analyze the far-reaching impact of this HK$8.3 billion strategic cross-holding agreement on the domestic express delivery market competition pattern.

---

On January 15, 2026, SF Holdings (06936.HK) and J&T Express (01519.HK) jointly announced the reaching of a strategic cross-holding agreement, with the total investment transaction amounting to HK$8.3 billion (approximately RMB7.435 billion). According to the agreement [1][2]:

Transaction Direction	Number of Shares	Issue Price	Shareholding Ratio
SF → J&T	226 million H-shares	HK$36.74 per share	10% equity in J&T
J&T → SF	822 million Class B shares	HK$10.10 per share	4.29% equity in SF

Both parties’ held shares are subject to a

, reflecting the sincerity of long-term strategic cooperation. In addition, J&T’s Board Chairman Li Jie promised that, under the condition that SF holds no less than 8% of J&T’s shares, he will nominate and support a director candidate recommended by SF to join J&T’s board of directors [1].

The essence of this cooperation is that

[3]. According to the statements of the management of both parties at the analyst meetings [1][2]:

• SF’s Strategic Considerations
  : Relying on its core advantages in cross-border first-mile, international trunk lines and overseas warehouse networks, it has become the largest integrated logistics service provider in Asia and the fourth largest in the world. However, efficient global logistics cannot do without in-depth coverage of local last-mile delivery networks. Compared with self-built heavy asset investment, choosing to cross-hold shares with a strategic synergy partner is a more efficient and optimized resource allocation method.

• J&T’s Strategic Value
  : J&T currently has an extensive last-mile network layout in 13 countries around the world, forming a good complement to SF’s core advantages. Especially in the Southeast Asian market, J&T’s parcel volume in the first half of 2025 increased by 57.9% year-on-year, with a market share of as high as 32.8%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [4].

---

At present, the domestic express delivery market has formed a landscape of

, with the seven companies accounting for approximately 90% of the total market share [3].

:

Enterprise Type	Representative Enterprises	Market Share	Features
Franchise Model Leaders	ZTO, YTO	19.3%, 15.2%	Stable market share, profit-oriented
Top 3 Followers in Franchise Model	Yunda, STO, J&T	Approximately 13-11%	Fierce competition, narrowing gaps
Direct Operation Leader	SF	8.5% (+0.6pct YoY)	High-end positioning, leading growth rate
E-commerce Logistics	JD Logistics	Approximately 10%	Advantages of integrated warehouse and distribution

It is worth noting that

[3], which reflects the rapid expansion trend of the budget e-commerce express delivery market.

Zhao Xiaomin, an expert in the express delivery industry, pointed out that the core of the cooperation between J&T and SF lies in in-depth business integration rather than holding control. The shareholding ratios of both parties are limited, and there is no change in control, which is more a reflection of strategic synergy [5]. This transaction may accelerate the end of the price war in the express delivery industry — the price war in the express delivery industry reflects deep-seated issues such as management, network, and governance concepts, and capital market-driven integration may be a more effective solution [5].

:

• In November 2025, the growth rate of domestic express delivery business volume dropped to 5%, and the industry entered the stock competition stage [3]
• SF’s single-parcel revenue in November 2025 decreased by 8.49% year-on-year, and price pressure continues [3]
• The industry’s single-parcel revenue has continued to decline, dropping from more than 10 yuan to a few yuan

Although this cooperation may strengthen the synergy effect of head enterprises,

[3]:

Restrictive Factors	Specific Analysis
Market Scale Constraints	Annual business volume exceeds 200 billion pieces, making it difficult for a single enterprise to break through business bottlenecks
Decentralization of Upstream E-commerce	Pinduoduo and live-stream e-commerce weaken platform discourse power, restricting the monopoly pricing of express delivery enterprises
Policy Restraint	The State Post Bureau clearly introduced the ‘anti-involution’ policy in 2025 to rectify price wars and last-mile service quality

The synergy between the two parties at the domestic business level is mainly reflected in [2][4]:

• Last-mile Network Sharing
  : J&T can use SF’s last-mile station network for part of the parcel delivery
• Customer Complementarity
  : SF focuses on business parcels and high-value item delivery, while J&T focuses on e-commerce parcels and budget express delivery, with low customer overlap
• Regional Resource Integration
  : Realize resource sharing in their respective advantageous network coverage areas to reduce operating costs

---

The

, directly targeting the reconstruction of the new closed-loop of ‘Southeast Asian Manufacturing - China Transit - Global Consumption’ [3]:

:

• Core resources in cross-border first-mile and trunk line segments
• Mature international operation system
• Global overseas warehouse resources (under gradual construction)

:

• Last-mile network in 13 countries worldwide
• Localized operation capabilities
• Absolute leading position in the Southeast Asian market (32.8% market share)

From the perspective of financial data,

[4]:

Market	Gross Profit Margin	Business Growth Rate
Southeast Asia	17.8%	+57.9%
Mainland China	4.5%	+20.0%

SF can use J&T’s network to enter the high-margin market at low cost, while J&T can rely on SF’s trunk lines to reduce cross-border costs. The two parties form a significant

.

One of the core goals of the cooperation between the two parties is to

, compete for the right to formulate logistics rules through data ecosystem integration (such as the interconnection of J&T’s COD payment data and SF’s customs system), and compete against international giants such as DHL and FedEx [3].

---

Type of Challenge	Specific Performance
Model Conflict	There are significant differences between SF’s direct operation model and J&T’s franchise system in management philosophy, operation processes, and service standards
Interest Game	The distribution of domestic and overseas customers may trigger interest games
Decision-making Efficiency	Establishing decision-making mechanisms such as a strategic synergy committee requires continuous communication and adaptation between the management of both parties

This cooperation will bring pressure to the Tongda Department (ZTO, YTO, Yunda, STO) and other peers [5]:

• Changes in E-commerce Express Delivery Pattern
  : With the alliance of leading enterprises, the remaining enterprises are facing greater competitive pressure
• Need for Strategic Adjustment
  : Enterprises need to break the closed business philosophy and seek transformation and upgrading
• Possible New Alliances
  : Cainiao may accelerate its global layout, and the Tongda Department may seek new alliances

At the specific operational level, whether the in-depth cooperation between the two parties can proceed smoothly

[5]. Anti-monopoly review will be a key consideration factor.

---

1. Strategic Level
   : This cooperation marks a new era for China’s express delivery industry from ‘going it alone’ to ‘strategic synergy’. The two parties achieve resource integration and complementary advantages through equity binding.

2. Competition Pattern
   : Although it will accelerate the concentration of head enterprises, it is difficult to form an oligopoly pattern in the short term. Industry competition will shift from ‘price war’ to differentiated competition based on ‘service and efficiency’.

3. Global Significance
   : The cooperation between the two parties directly targets the incremental market of cross-border logistics, and is expected to play an important role in the process of Chinese-funded enterprises challenging international giants.

4. Policy Orientation
   : It is consistent with the ‘anti-involution’ policy orientation of the State Post Bureau, which is conducive to the rational return of the industry.

Trend	Prediction
Accelerated Integration	More companies may optimize their structures through mergers and acquisitions and reorganization
Global Competition	Head enterprises will invest more resources in cross-border e-commerce logistics
Service Upgrading	The focus of competition shifts from price to timeliness, service and experience
Differentiated Positioning	Enterprises will focus more on their core advantage areas

This transaction has set a new vane for China’s express delivery industry. The industry’s game rules are being rewritten, and all players must make new strategic choices accordingly [5].

---

[1] Securities Times - Involving HK$8.3 Billion! SF and J&T Officially Announce Cross-Holding to Build a Global Integrated Logistics Network (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3595689.html)

[2] Sina Finance - SF Holdings and J&T Announce HK$8.3 Billion Strategic Cross-Holding to Jointly Build a Global Integrated Logistics Network (https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/digi/2026-01-15/doc-inhhiusc3497072.shtml)

[3] Sina News - After SF and J&T’s HK$8.3 Billion Strategic Cross-Holding, Will the Concentration of the Express Delivery Industry Accelerate to Oligopoly? (https://news.sina.cn/bignews/insight/2026-01-16/detail-inhhncwv6930984.d.html)

[4] Futu News - Hundred-billionaire Partners with Ten-billion Newcomer, Will the Express Delivery Industry Change? (https://news.futunn.com/post/67523168)

[5] Sina Finance - SF and J&T Invest HK$8.3 Billion in Cross-Holding: 5-year Lock-up and Heavy Bet on Globalization May Trigger In-depth Industry Restructuring (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-16/doc-inhhmhtp6087286.shtml)