US CEOs Face Elevated Economic Uncertainty as Top 2026 Threat, Outpacing Global Peers

The Conference Board’s 2026 C-Suite Outlook Survey, encompassing responses from over 1,700 executives including more than 750 CEOs across North America, Europe, and Asia, provides a comprehensive view of global business sentiment as organizations navigate an increasingly complex economic landscape [1][2]. The survey’s most striking finding is the pronounced divergence between US and global CEO priorities, with American business leaders expressing heightened anxiety about economic uncertainty—a concern that now supersedes traditional recession fears in their ranking of top threats [1].

This elevated uncertainty among US CEOs reflects the convergence of multiple compounding pressures. The challenge of quantifying returns on substantial artificial intelligence investments has emerged as a central concern, with global AI spending projected to reach $2.53 trillion in 2026 and $3.33 trillion in 2027 according to Gartner estimates [5]. CEOs face intensifying pressure to demonstrate measurable business value from these investments, particularly given that 46% of US CEOs identify improving data quality and quantity to measure AI ROI as their top AI priority for 2026—the highest such priority globally [1][2]. The emphasis on data quality underscores a broader industry recognition that AI’s potential is fundamentally constrained by the underlying data infrastructure that powers these systems.

The labor market context adds another layer of complexity to US CEO concerns. Twenty-seven percent of US CEOs identified expectations of higher compensation as a key hiring barrier—substantially higher than their Asian (19%) and European (15%) counterparts [1][2]. This wage pressure reflects tight labor market conditions, persistent inflation eroding real wages, and shifting employee expectations in an AI-augmented workplace. The intersection of labor dynamics with AI adoption creates additional uncertainty, as 27% of midsize business leaders anticipate some headcount impact from AI in 2026, with process automation (62%), predictive analytics (44%), and market intelligence (42%) representing primary use cases [3].

Despite these concerns, investment activity remains resilient. PwC’s 2026 Annual Outlook forecasts steady US GDP growth of 2.1%, anchored in part by continued AI-related capital spending on data centers, power generation, and digital infrastructure [4]. Deloitte similarly projects strong business investment as companies compete to maintain positions at the AI technology frontier [4]. This investment resilience suggests that CEOs view AI spending as a strategic imperative that outweighs near-term uncertainty concerns.

The survey reveals a fundamental shift in corporate AI strategy from experimental adoption to a period focused on scaling, integration, and demonstrable business value. Nearly 41% of executives overall, including 33% of CEOs, identified ROI measurement as their top AI priority, outpacing even enhancing AI expertise (32%) [2]. This prioritization signals that the corporate sector has moved beyond initial curiosity about AI capabilities to a demanding phase requiring measurable outcomes.

The juxtaposition of continued heavy AI investment alongside significant pessimism about its impact suggests that CEOs view AI adoption as a defensive necessity rather than an opportunistic advantage. This dynamic—where CEOs skeptical of AI’s near-term benefits nonetheless feel compelled to invest to avoid competitive disadvantage—parallels historical patterns observed during transformative technology adoption cycles [5]. The finding that 38% of US CEOs expect AI to negatively impact their firms in 2026, exceeding concerns about climate events (17%) and political polarization (26%) among global CEOs, highlights the disruptive uncertainty AI presents to established business models [2].

Regional dynamics present an interesting paradox: while US CEOs express heightened uncertainty about their domestic environment, the US and Canada remain the most attractive expansion region globally, with 53% of all respondents naming it their top expansion priority [1][2]. This suggests a disconnect between domestic CEO sentiment and global perceptions of US market attractiveness—a gap with important strategic implications for US-based companies operating in the most-sought-after market.

Cyber risk has emerged as the top geopolitical concern, with 54% of US CEOs and 47% of global CEOs ranking it as their primary worry [1][2]. This cybersecurity focus creates competitive implications across technology, insurance, and risk management sectors, as companies with robust security postures gain advantages in enterprise sales, regulatory compliance, and supply chain relationships.

: The elevated uncertainty among US CEOs suggests potential headwinds for aggressive expansion strategies and capital allocation decisions in the near term. The pressure to demonstrate AI ROI may lead to compressed investment cycles and heightened scrutiny of technology spending programs. Organizations struggling with measurement frameworks may face competitive disadvantage as peers successfully demonstrate value. Labor market pressures, including compensation expectations and AI-induced workforce changes, will significantly impact cost structures and productivity metrics throughout 2026.

: The emphasis on business model transformation creates demand for consulting, technology, and transformation services. Companies with agile, adaptable business models may outperform incumbents locked into legacy structures. The focus on data quality for AI ROI measurement suggests opportunities in data management, analytics, and infrastructure providers. Organizations that successfully navigate AI integration while maintaining workforce engagement may establish sustainable competitive advantages over peers.

: The immediate period will be influenced by Federal Reserve policy decisions, ongoing trade negotiations, and the resolution of any remaining government funding uncertainties. AI investment decisions made in the near-term window will set trajectories for the remainder of 2026. CEO sentiment may improve if economic indicators suggest “soft landing” scenarios, while deterioration could amplify defensive positioning.

The Conference Board’s 2026 survey findings indicate that US corporate leadership is entering the year with a defensive posture shaped by economic uncertainty and AI implementation challenges. The 14-percentage-point gap between US and global CEO uncertainty levels represents a significant divergence requiring careful interpretation by stakeholders across investment, policy, and business domains [1][2]. The focus on business model transformation rather than incremental improvement signals that traditional approaches may prove inadequate in the current environment, warranting fundamental strategic repositioning consideration.

Investment resilience in AI-related capital spending provides a foundation for continued economic activity, with projected spending of $1.36 trillion on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone representing a substantial economic driver [5]. Consumer sentiment indicators show signs of strength, with roughly three-quarters of midsize business owners expecting revenue increases in 2026 and 64% projecting higher profits [3]. This consumer resilience provides a counterbalance to CEO uncertainty, suggesting underlying economic fundamentals may support continued activity even as business leaders navigate elevated concerns.

The evolution of AI from experimental to operational technology will be a defining dynamic over the medium term. Organizations that successfully demonstrate AI ROI will likely accelerate investment, while those struggling with measurement may face increasing competitive pressure. The emphasis on data quality suggests that infrastructure investments will prove as consequential as AI algorithms themselves in determining successful outcomes.