Analysis Report on the Impact of Kweichow Moutai's Corporate Group Purchase Strategy Adjustments

Based on collected data and analysis, I will provide you with an in-depth analysis report on the impact of Kweichow Moutai’s corporate group purchase strategy adjustments on channel profits and valuation.

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According to recent market reports, Moutai opened applications for Feitian Moutai at RMB 1,499 per bottle to tax-qualified enterprises, but the company clarified that it is currently

and not open to new enterprises. This adjustment is mainly to [1].

Chen Hua, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Moutai Group, clearly stated at the 2026 National Dealer Friendship Conference that we should “focus on consumers and comprehensively promote the market-oriented transformation of Moutai liquor marketing”[2]. This strategic adjustment reflects Moutai’s transformation from a “passive seller” to an “active seller”, emphasizing proactive customer expansion and enhanced service capabilities.

Adjustment Dimension	Specific Measures
Channel Model	Launch all mainstream Feitian Moutai products on iMoutai, cancel the distribution method for non-standard products
Pricing Mechanism	Establish a dynamic retail price adjustment mechanism that “follows market trends and remains relatively stable”
Product Structure	Focus on three core product SKUs (Moutai 1935, Feitian Moutai, Premium Moutai) and cut quotas for non-standard products
Customer Expansion	Accumulated over 5,000 group purchase customers; plans to further expand the scale of corporate customers in 2026

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Moutai’s core product channel price system has undergone significant changes in 2026:

Product	Dealer Payment Price	iMoutai Retail Price	Market Price	iMoutai Channel Profit	Channel Profit Margin
Feitian Moutai (500ml)	RMB 1,169	RMB 1,499	RMB 1,500	+RMB 330	+28.2%
Premium Moutai	RMB 2,969	RMB 2,299	RMB 2,200	-RMB 670	-22.6%
Moutai 15 Year	RMB 2,299	RMB 4,399	RMB 3,500	+RMB 2,100	+91.3%
1L Feitian Moutai	RMB 3,419	RMB 2,989	RMB 3,030	-RMB 430	-12.6%

As a core product, Feitian Moutai maintains a price difference of approximately RMB 330 between its ex-factory price and iMoutai retail price, with a dealer profit margin of about 28.2%. This profit margin is basically in line with the market price, indicating that Moutai has made balanced arrangements to ensure reasonable profits for dealers[1][2].

Premium Moutai and 1L Feitian Moutai have experienced price inversion:

• Premium Moutai
  : Dealer payment price is RMB 2,969, iMoutai retail price is RMB 2,299, with an inversion of RMB 670
• 1L Feitian Moutai
  : Dealer payment price is RMB 3,419, iMoutai retail price is RMB 2,989, with an inversion of RMB 430

Moutai has announced that it will significantly cut quotas for non-standard products in 2026: 30% cut for Moutai 15 Year, 30% cut for 1L Feitian Moutai, and 50% cut for Zodiac Moutai[3]. This measure aims to reduce supply from the source and ease channel profit pressure.

Moutai is piloting consignment and commission sales models for some products (such as Zodiac Moutai). Dealers no longer obtain ownership of the goods, but only provide pick-up and delivery services to earn commissions. Although this model has limited profit upside, it can avoid the risk of losses for dealers if they cannot sell the goods after purchasing them[2].

Traditional Model: Ex-factory Price → Market Price (price difference captured by dealers)
     ↓
New Model: Dealer Payment Price → iMoutai Retail Price (Moutai controls pricing power)
     ↓
Profit Distribution: Moutai gains more pricing power, dealers return to the essence of service

According to an analysis by Securities Daily, Moutai’s new plan leaves room for dealer operations. Taking Premium Moutai and Moutai 15 Year as examples, the contract price leaves a profit margin of nearly 20% compared to the iMoutai retail price[2].

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Based on the DCF model, Moutai’s current valuation shows obvious differentiation:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Relative to Current Stock Price	Core Assumptions
Bear Case	RMB 1,173.42	-15.1%	Zero revenue growth, EBITDA margin 75.1%
Base Case	RMB 1,734.04	+25.5%	20% revenue growth, EBITDA margin 79.1%
Bull Case	RMB 2,928.03	+111.9%	23% revenue growth, EBITDA margin 83.1%
Probability-weighted	RMB 1,945.16	+40.7%	Weighted average of the three scenarios

: 8.8% (Beta 0.64, risk-free rate +4.5%, market risk premium +7.0%)

1. Strengthened Brand Moat
   : Channel reform enhances Moutai’s control over prices and terminals, which is conducive to brand value maintenance
2. Financial Health Support
   : ROE 36.48%, net profit margin 51.51%, current ratio 6.62, low financial risk[0]
3. Expanded Consumption Scenarios
   : Over 5,000 group purchase customers have been developed, with corporate customer demand providing stable support

1. Short-term Performance Pressure
   : Volume control policies may affect short-term sales revenue; 2025 Q3 EPS missed expectations by 5.30%[0]
2. Growing Pains of Channel Adjustment
   : Narrowing dealer profits may affect channel enthusiasm
3. Downward Industry Cycle
   : The liquor industry is in an overall adjustment period, with weakened consumer demand

The current stock price of RMB 1,382 is in the lower-middle range of the DCF valuation interval:

• Lower Bound (Bear Case)
  : RMB 1,173 → Current stock price has a 17.8% premium
• Midpoint (Base Case)
  : RMB 1,734 → Current stock price has a 20.3% discount
• Upper Bound (Bull Case)
  : RMB 2,928 → Current stock price has a 52.8% discount

This indicates that the market has fully priced in the short-term channel pressure and industry cycle risks faced by Moutai.

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Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
Current Price	RMB 1,382.00	-
20-day Moving Average	RMB 1,408.36	Short-term pressure
Support Level	RMB 1,372.96	-
Resistance Level	RMB 1,408.36	-
Beta	0.64	Low beta attribute, strong resistance to decline
Trend Judgment	Sideways consolidation	No clear directional signal

Indicator	Moutai	Industry Average	Evaluation
P/E (TTM)	19.23x	Approx. 25-30x	Relatively undervalued
P/B	6.73x	Approx. 5-7x	Reasonable range
ROE	36.48%	Approx. 15-20%	Significantly leading

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1. Impact on Channel Profits
   : The adjustment of corporate group purchase strategies has limited short-term impact on dealer profits. Moutai is reshaping the channel profit distribution structure through volume control measures and a dynamic price adjustment mechanism. The channel profit of the core product Feitian Moutai remains stable, while non-standard products face certain pressure in channels.

2. Impact on Valuation
   : Channel reform has enhanced Moutai’s long-term competitiveness and brand moat. The DCF base case shows an upside of approximately 25.5%, and the probability-weighted valuation shows an upside of approximately 40.7%. However, short-term attention should be paid to performance pressure brought by the downward industry cycle and channel adjustments.

3. Long-term Value
   : Moutai’s brand moat, excellent financial indicators, and consumption upgrade trend support its long-term value. The current stock price is in the lower-middle range of the valuation interval, with a certain margin of safety.

Risk Type	Specific Content
Industry Risk	The liquor industry is in an overall adjustment period, with weakened consumer demand
Channel Risk	Adjustments to dealer interests may lead to reduced cooperation
Price Risk	Further declines in market prices may compress channel profits
Policy Risk	Changes in tax compliance policies may affect corporate customer expansion

• Track the shipment pace of Moutai liquor and terminal price trends in Q1 2026
• Monitor sales data and user activity changes on the iMoutai platform
• Track dealer inventory levels and capital status
• Pay attention to management guidance after the release of the 2026 annual report in April

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[1] Xinhua News Agency - Feitian Moutai Price Survey (http://www.news.cn/fortune/20251113/5332924290a04c979bbcc9fe5c30fa8e/c.html)

[2] Securities Daily - Moutai’s Major Announcement: Regains Pricing Dominance After Eight Years (http://www.zqrb.cn/gscy/gongsi/2026-01-15/A1768467310979.html)

[3] Securities Times - Rumors of Moutai Launching Volume Control Measures? Feitian Price Rebounds! (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3539270.html)

[4] Xinhua News Agency - Moutai Anchors a New Journey of Market-oriented Reform Focused on Consumers (http://www.news.cn/enterprise/20251229/9c4bab013d5f4b5a9aea30b3a833402c/c.html)

[5] Southern Weekend - Millions Log On to Snatch Feitian Moutai, Dealers No Longer “Make Money While Lying Down” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260108A00ST800)

[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Kweichow Moutai Company Overview, Financial Analysis, DCF Valuation, Technical Analysis