Analysis Report on the Sustainability of Changxin Bochuang (300548.SZ)'s 2025 Performance Growth

Based on the searched information, I now provide you with a systematic and comprehensive

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Changxin Bochuang released its 2025 annual performance forecast on January 16, 2026, showing explosive growth in performance [1][2][3]:

Indicator	2025 Forecast	2024 Actual Value	YoY Growth Rate
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	RMB 320-370 million	RMB 72 million	344%-413%
Non-Recurring Net Profit	RMB 305-355 million	RMB 58 million	429%-516%
Revenue	Approximately RMB 2.4 billion (estimated)	Approximately RMB 1.794 billion (first three quarters)	45%+ (cumulative)

Looking at the first three quarters of 2025 data, the company’s main business revenue was RMB 1.794 billion, up 45.41% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 250 million, up 566.59% year-on-year; non-recurring net profit was RMB 240 million, up 859.5% year-on-year [4]. In the third quarter alone, main business revenue was RMB 594 million, up 23.34% year-on-year; single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 81.7489 million, up 244.57% year-on-year [4].

Current financial data shows that the company has strong profitability [5]:

• Gross Profit Margin
  : 39.90% (industry average 30.19%, ranked 7th out of 105)
• Net Profit Margin
  : 23.31% (industry average 0.53%, ranked 9th out of 105)
• ROE
  : 14.35%
• Asset-Liability Ratio
  : 31.28%
• Dynamic P/E Ratio
  : 123.17x

The company’s gross profit margin is significantly higher than the industry average, indicating that it has a certain technological premium capability in the optical module field [5].

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Changxin Bochuang’s explosive performance growth is highly correlated with the overall boom in the optical module industry. 2025 is a key year for the outbreak of AI computing power demand [6][7]:

:

• The global optical module market is expected to exceed USD 23 billion in 2025 [7]
• China’s optical module market is expected to reach RMB 67 billion in 2025 and exceed RMB 70 billion in 2026 [8]
• The AI optical module market is expected to reach RMB 71.6 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of over 80% [8]
• Global demand for 800G optical modules exceeds 20 million units [8]

:

• 800G optical modules have become the market mainstream, and 1.6T technology will enter its first year of large-scale commercialization in 2026 [9]
• NVIDIA confirmed at the CES 2026 conference that the ratio of GPUs to 1.6T optical modules under the Rubin architecture will increase from 1:2.5 in the GB200 era to 1:5~1:9 [10]
• Silicon photonics technology has significant cost advantages, with the mass production cost of 800G silicon photonics modules 30% lower than that of traditional EML solutions [8]

Its subsidiary Changxinsheng (Wuhan) Technology Co., Ltd. is the core driver of this performance growth [1][2][3]:

:

• The company acquired a total of 18.16% equity held by minority shareholders of Changxinsheng
• The shareholding ratio increased from 42.29% to 60.45%
• The increase in shareholding ratio directly boosted the net profit of the listed company

:
Based on the 2025 net profit forecast of RMB 320-370 million and reversing calculation with the 60.45% shareholding ratio, Changxinsheng’s 2025 net profit is approximately RMB 530-610 million, showing a substantial growth compared to 2024.

As an integrated optoelectronic device supplier in the optical communication field, Changxin Bochuang has the following competitive advantages:

Advantage Area	Specific Performance
Technological Accumulation	Mastery of key technologies in optoelectronic chip integration, optical devices, optical module design, and production processes
Product Layout	Offers a variety of optical module products targeting telecom and data communication markets
Capacity Release	Focuses on a phased capacity release strategy to match market demand growth
Industry Position	One of China’s top 10 optical module enterprises, with continuously increasing global market share

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Global AI infrastructure construction is in a peak investment period, with tech giants increasing capital investment one after another [9]:

• Companies such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta have invested hundreds of billions to trillions of US dollars in AI infrastructure
• The optical module industry is in tight supply and demand, and the price of domestic G652D optical fiber has continued to increase month-on-month since the third quarter [7]
• Overseas AI demand drove an 87.78% year-on-year increase in China’s optical fiber preform exports from January to November 2025 [7]

As clearly seen in various conferences and exhibitions in 2025, 1.6T and 200G/lane technologies have become new industry benchmarks [9]:

• 1.6T optical modules have completed the sample phase, with a steeper growth curve
• Mass shipments are expected to be achieved in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for approximately 20% of total shipments [8]
• If Changxin Bochuang can successfully introduce 1.6T products, it will achieve significant incremental revenue

Silicon photonics technology has evolved from a technical option to an industry mainstream [9]:

• Zhongji Innolight’s 800G silicon photonics modules have been applied in batches in hyperscale data centers such as Google and Amazon
• Silicon photonics technology accounts for more than 80% of the overall solution
• If Changxin Bochuang can accelerate the layout of silicon photonics products, it is expected to reduce production costs and increase gross profit margin

The company has entered the core supplier system of mainstream leading data communication companies [11], and the optimization of customer structure will support sustained performance growth.

The competitive pattern of the optical module industry shows obvious differentiation [6][12]:

Echelon	Enterprise	Optical Module Business Revenue
First Echelon	Zhongji Innolight	>RMB 20 billion
Second Echelon	Xinyisheng, Zhongtian Technology, Accelink Technologies	RMB 8-10 billion
Third Echelon	Changxin Bochuang, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Techsun	<RMB 2 billion

Leading enterprises such as Zhongji Innolight and Xinyisheng are accelerating 800G capacity expansion, which may trigger price wars and squeeze the industry’s gross profit margin space [8]. As a third-echelon enterprise, Changxin Bochuang faces the risk of market share erosion.

The technological iteration cycle of the optical module industry has been compressed from 3-4 years to 1-2 years [9], putting forward higher requirements for enterprises’ R&D investment and innovation capabilities:

• The mass production and delivery time of 1.6T products are very sensitive to market judgments, and there are variables in the pace of technology implementation [8]
• 800G delivery once fell short of market expectations due to customer-supplied chip issues, affecting the credibility of the growth story [8]
• New technologies such as CPO and silicon photonics have become the core of competition, and mistakes in technical route selection may lead to backwardness

Downstream customers of optical chips are optical module enterprises, and the market is relatively concentrated. In 2024, the CR10 of global optical module manufacturers reached 69.3% [12], giving customers strong bargaining power. If Changxin Bochuang has a high dependence on a single customer, it may face the risk of order fluctuations.

Currently, the company’s dynamic P/E ratio is 123.17x and P/B ratio is 21.90x, with valuation at a historical high [5]:

• The overall valuation of the A-share optical module sector is relatively high, requiring sustained high performance growth to support it
• If performance growth slows down in 2026, it may face the risk of a “Davis Double Kill”

After acquiring the equity of Changxinsheng’s minority shareholders, achieving effective resource integration and management synergy is a key challenge:

• Need to ensure that the subsidiary forms synergies with the parent company in terms of technology, channels, supply chain, etc.
• After the increase in shareholding, the listed company’s ability to control the subsidiary needs to be improved accordingly

Assessment Dimension	Score (1-10)	Explanation
Industry Boom	9	AI computing power demand remains strong, and the industry is in a boom period
Company Competitiveness	6	In the third echelon, facing relatively high competitive pressure
Technological Capability	7	Has basic technological accumulation, needs to accelerate breakthroughs in high-end products
Performance Certainty	7	Consolidation effect + industry growth, performance is supported
Valuation Rationality	5	Valuation is relatively high, requiring high growth to digest
Comprehensive Score	6.8	Mid-to-long-term growth is expected, but attention needs to be paid to changes in the competitive pattern

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, with supporting logic as follows:

1. Global AI Investment Cycle Has Just Entered the Mid-Stage

• Tech giants’ capital expenditure continues to expand, and the peak period of AI infrastructure investment will continue from 2025 to 2026
• Demand for large model training and reasoning continues to grow, forming rigid pull for high-speed optical module demand

2. Upgraded Demand for Internal Interconnection in Data Centers

• NVIDIA’s Rubin architecture increases the ratio of GPUs to optical modules to 1:5~1:9 [10]
• The density of optical modules per cabinet has soared from 12-16 to over 72, with 1.6T or even 3.2T optical modules as standard [10]

3. Expansion of Emerging Application Scenarios

• In addition to AI data centers, emerging scenarios such as new energy vehicle intelligent driving, industrial AI, and medical imaging bring incremental demand [8]
• The value of optoelectronic devices per vehicle has increased to USD 1,500

, with the following factors needing attention:

:

• Sustained performance growth of Changxinsheng is the foundation of consolidation contribution
• After the shareholding ratio is increased to 60.45%, the listed company will enjoy more growth dividends from the subsidiary

:

• Whether Changxinsheng itself has the ability to sustain high growth
• Whether intensified industry competition will affect the subsidiary’s profitability
• The integration effect and synergy after the equity acquisition

Based on industry development and the company’s capacity planning, a scenario analysis of 2026 performance is carried out as follows:

Scenario	Revenue Growth Rate	Net Profit	YoY Growth Rate	Driving Factors
Optimistic	+50%	RMB 540 million	+46%	1.6T product volume growth + high industry boom
Neutral	+35%	RMB 450 million	+22%	Steady growth of 800G products
Conservative	+20%	RMB 380 million	+8%	Intensified industry competition + price decline

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:

:

• ✅ AI computing power demand remains strong, with strong industry beta factors
• ✅ Subsidiary consolidation effect combined with industry growth ensures performance
• ⚠️ Need to be alert to price competition pressure brought by industry capacity expansion

:

• ❓ Depends on the R&D and mass production progress of 1.6T and higher-rate products
• ❓ Depends on the expansion of market share among leading customers
• ❓ Depends on the layout progress of new technologies such as silicon photonics and CPO

Investors should focus on the following indicators:

Indicator	Focus of Attention
Revenue Growth Rate	Whether it continues to be higher than the industry average
Gross Profit Margin Change	Whether there is a downward trend
1.6T Product Progress	Customer introduction and mass production schedule
Customer Structure	Changes in the proportion of the top five customers
R&D Investment	R&D expense ratio and patent application status
Capacity Utilization Rate	Matching degree between capacity release and orders

1. Intensified Industry Competition
   : Expansion of leading enterprises may trigger price wars
2. Backward Technological Iteration
   : 1.6T product introduction falls short of expectations
3. Risk of Valuation Correction
   : The current dynamic P/E ratio of 123x is relatively high
4. Fluctuations in Downstream Demand
   : Changes in AI investment rhythm affect orders
5. Integration Risk
   : Management difficulty increases after subsidiary consolidation

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Changxin Bochuang’s 344% explosive growth in net profit in 2025 mainly benefits from two factors:

and . From the perspective of sustainability:

• Industry Level
  : Global AI infrastructure construction is in a peak investment period, with sustained growth in demand for 800G/1.6T optical modules. The high industry boom is expected to continue until 2026-2027
• Company Level
  : As a third-echelon optical module enterprise, Changxin Bochuang faces competitive pressure from leading enterprises and needs to accelerate the mass production of 1.6T products and customer expansion to increase market share
• Valuation Level
  : The current valuation is relatively high, requiring sustained high growth to digest it

Overall, the company’s mid-to-long-term growth logic still holds, but investors need to closely monitor

, , and to make prudent decisions.

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[1] Caiwen News - Steady Growth in Data Communication Related Product Revenue: Changxin Bochuang’s 2025 Net Profit Expected to Increase by 344%~413% Year-on-Year (https://www.caiwennews.com/article/1413680.shtml)

[2] Sohu - Changxin Bochuang’s 2025 Net Profit Expected to Surge by Over 344%, Revealing the Driving Factors Behind It (https://m.sohu.com/a/976880949_121956424)

[3] NetEase News - Steady Growth in Data Communication Related Product Revenue: Changxin Bochuang’s 2025 Net Profit Expected to Increase by 344%~413% Year-on-Year (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KJDVHSLE0550WHYR.html)

[4] Securities Star - Changxin Bochuang (300548) Saw a Net Main Capital Purchase of RMB 297 Million on January 15 (https://www.sohu.com/a/976602186_115377)

[5] Eastmoney - Changxin Bochuang (300548) Stock Price and Trend Chart (http://quote.eastmoney.com/sz300548.html)

[6] Qianzhan Industry Research Institute - Comprehensive Comparison of Listed Companies in China’s Optical Module Industry in 2025 (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-03/doc-inhezczt3766739.shtml)

[7] Jiemian News - Dual Drivers of AI Demand + Tight Supply Push Optical Modules to Rise Strongly (https://www.jiemian.com/article/13791938.html)

[8] Caifuhao - Four Core Technologies Broaden Cambridge Technology’s Prospects in the Optical Module Market (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260113101641208916530)

[9] ICCSZ - Year-End Review: Top 10 Keywords for Optical Communications in 2025 (http://www.iccsz.com/site/cn/News/2025/12/25/20251225082120058773.htm)

[10] Xueqiu - NVIDIA’s CES 2026 Conference Brings Huge Increment to Optical Modules (https://xueqiu.com/S/COHR/time?page=16)

[11] Broadex Technologies Interactive Platform - The High-End Micro Fiber Connection Products R&D and Produced by the Company Are Mainly Used in High-Speed and Ultra-High-Speed Optical Modules Such as 100Gbps, 400Gbps, and 800Gbps (https://www.stcn.com/quotes/index/sz300620.html)

[12] 36Kr - Tsinghua Top Student Zhang Xingang Built a RMB 60 Billion Optical Chip Giant (https://m.36kr.com/p/3634805630747906)