Analysis of Terminal Gross Margin of SAIC Volkswagen ID.3 After Price Cuts

Based on the market data and industry materials I collected, I conducted a detailed analysis of the terminal gross margin of the ID.3. The key findings are as follows:

Time Node	Price (10,000 Yuan)	Price Cut Margin	Remarks
2023 Original Guide Price	16.29	-	Pure Smart Enjoy Edition
2025 Official Starting Price	12.59	-22.7%	Official Price Cut
Current Terminal Lowest Price	11.17	-31.4%	Dealer Promotion
Theoretical Price After 30k Cut	9.59	-41.1%	Hypothetical Additional 30,000 Yuan Price Cut

According to my calculation and analysis:

1. Current Gross Margin Estimate: Approximately 1.5%
   • Calculated based on the current terminal price of 111,700 yuan and SAIC Volkswagen’s net profit of 1,700 yuan per vehicle
   • Estimated cost per vehicle is approximately 110,000 yuan
   • Current gross margin is only 1.5%, hovering on the edge of break-even

2. Gross Margin After 30,000 Yuan Price Cut: -14.7% (Loss)
   • If the official price is further reduced by 30,000 yuan to 95,900 yuan
   • With unchanged costs, a negative gross margin of approximately 14.7% will occur
   • Meaning a loss of about 14,000 yuan per vehicle sold

Indicator	Value	Comparison with ID.3
ID.3 Current Gross Margin	1.5%	Far Below Industry Average
ID.3 After 30k Price Cut	-14.7%	Loss-Making Sales
SAIC Motor Overall Gross Margin	10.5%	Higher Than ID.3
Industry Average (New Energy Vehicles)	15-17%	Healthy Level
Industry 15% Warning Line	15%	ID.3 Has Fallen Below It

SAIC Volkswagen’s net profit per vehicle trend:

• H1 2023
  : 1,061 yuan (year-on-year decrease of 3,819 yuan) [1]
• Q1-Q3 2024
  : Approximately 1,700 yuan [2]

This indicates that although profitability per vehicle has rebounded slightly, it remains at a very meager level.

1. Current Status
   : The terminal gross margin of ID.3 is only about 1.5%, far below the healthy level of 15%
2. Impact of Price Cut
   : If the price is further reduced by 30,000 yuan, it will result in a loss of approximately 14.7%
3. Industry Pressure
   : This reflects the enormous pricing pressure faced by joint-venture brands in the electric vehicle market
4. Sustainability
   : The strategy of exchanging price for volume has limited effects, and the gross margin has touched the cost bottom line

This phenomenon shows that even giant joint-venture brands like Volkswagen are facing severe profitability challenges in the electric vehicle sector amid fierce market competition.

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[1] Essence Securities Research Report - “Industry In-Depth Analysis” (https://file.iyanbao.com/pdf/d20e3-c3ad4b81-dc0f-4e8e-8a06-01a3b977b2e7.pdf)
[2] Soochow Securities Research Report - “SAIC Motor (600104) In the Midst of Reform, Turnaround Expected” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202412151641306360_1.pdf)
[3] The Paper - “Volkswagen is Cornered” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_24728697)
[4] SAIC Motor 2024 Annual Report (https://www.saicmotor.com/chinese/images/tzzgx/ggb/dqgg/2024ndqgg/2025/4/29/685D33923ABE4D109BBE39F92BFBF945.pdf)