Method for Calculating the ROI of Dayao Soda's Spring Festival Promotion Expenses

Based on collected industry data and market information, I systematically expound the method for calculating the ROI of Dayao Soda’s Spring Festival promotion expenses.

As an important peak sales season for the beverage industry, the Spring Festival period requires Dayao Soda to establish a scientific ROI evaluation system. According to industry practices, Spring Festival promotion expenses in the beverage industry typically account for 15%-25% of the annual marketing budget, covering multiple dimensions such as promotion materials, channel fees, personnel support, and advertising placement[1][2].

Expense Category	Specific Content	Industry Reference Proportion
Channel Fees	Supermarket entry fees, display stack fees, endcap display fees	30%-40%
Promotion Materials	Display stack construction, promotion counters, promotional posters, terminal materials	15%-20%
Personnel Support	Temporary promoter wages, shopping guide commissions, supervisor fees	15%-20%
Advertising Placement	Elevator ads, bus ads, social media promotion	10%-15%
Promotional Gifts	Purchase-with-purchase activities, lottery prizes, trial product distribution	10%-15%

• Channel price difference subsidies (compensation provided to distributors to maintain price system stability)
• Logistics and warehousing costs (increased warehousing and distribution costs for Spring Festival stock preparation)
• Return losses (disposal costs for unsold products after the Spring Festival)

Indicator Type	Calculation Method	Data Source
Incremental Sales Revenue	Sales during the promotion period - baseline sales in the same period	Sales System
Incremental Gross Profit	Incremental Sales Revenue × Average Gross Profit Margin	Financial System
Market Increment	Change in market share × Market size	AC Nielsen
New Channel Expansion	Number of new terminals × Output per store	Channel System

• Increased Brand Exposure
  : Social media interaction volume, changes in search index
• Increased Channel Penetration
  : Growth in terminal coverage rate
• Customer Asset Accumulation
  : Number of new members, changes in repurchase rate
• Competitor Substitution Effect
  : Substitution rate for competitors such as Coca-Cola and PepsiCo

Promotion ROI = (Incremental Gross Profit during Promotion - Total Promotion Input) / Total Promotion Input × 100%

Incremental ROI = (Incremental GMV × Gross Profit Margin - Promotion Cost) / Promotion Cost × 100%

(based on industry standard data)[3]:

Item	Amount (10,000 RMB)	Description
GMV during Promotion	3,500	Total sales during the Spring Festival period
Baseline GMV in the Same Period	2,500	Sales during non-promotion periods
Incremental GMV	1,000	Growth driven by promotion
Average Gross Profit Margin	45%	Beverage industry level
Incremental Gross Profit	450
Channel Fees	120	Display fees, entry fees
Promotion Materials	50	Display stacks, material production
Personnel Expenses	30	Temporary promoters, shopping guides
Advertising Placement	80	Multi-channel promotion
Gift Costs	20	Promotional gifts
Total Cost	300
ROI	50%	(450-300)/300

Dayao Soda focuses on the catering channel (accounting for more than 70% of sales revenue), and the following should be prioritized for catering channel promotions during the Spring Festival period[4][5]:

• Catering Store Cooperation Policies
  : Special packages for New Year’s Eve dinners and group dining scenarios
• Distributor Incentives
  : Spring Festival payment rebate policies
• Terminal Sales Support
  : Bottle opening fees, display rewards

The product portfolio under Dayao’s “1+2+N” strategy should adopt differentiated promotion strategies during the Spring Festival period:

Product Line	Spring Festival Positioning	Promotion Focus
Dayao Soda Series	Meal Matching Scenarios	Exclusive activities for catering stores
Yaoguoli Fruit Juice	Gifting Scenarios	Gift box set promotions
Yiyangshuo Plant Protein	Family Consumption	Holiday gifting promotion
Sugar-free Tea Series	Healthy Consumption	Scenario penetration

• Immediate Assessment
  : Within 1 week after the promotion ends (preliminary ROI)
• Mid-term Assessment
  : 1 month after the promotion ends (after inventory digestion)
• Long-term Assessment
  : 3 months after the promotion ends (brand asset accumulation)

Method	Applicable Scenario	Advantages	Disadvantages
Control Experiment Method	Comparable markets available	Accurate data	High implementation cost
Trend Comparison Method	Complete historical data	Simple and easy to implement	Affected by external factors
Attribution Model Method	Multi-channel promotions	Accurate attribution	Complex model
Survey Assessment Method	New market development	In-depth insights	Strong subjectivity

According to industry experience, the optimal expense allocation for Spring Festival promotions in the beverage industry is as follows:

• 40%
  Channel investment (ensure terminal visibility and sales momentum)
• 25%
  Promotion materials (display stacks, displays, atmosphere creation)
• 20%
  Personnel support (incentives for temporary promoters and shopping guides)
• 15%
  Advertising promotion (brand exposure)

It is recommended to adopt the “five-code integration” digital anti-channel conflict system to achieve precise tracking of promotion expenses and effect attribution (which can reduce the channel conflict rate from 30% to below 5%)[6].

Industry Level	ROI Performance	Evaluation
Excellent	>100%	Significant promotion effect
Good	50%-100%	Reasonable input-output ratio
Qualified	20%-50%	Strategy optimization required
Unqualified	<20%	Input adjustment recommended

1. Price System Management
   : Prevent price system collapse caused by promotions
2. Inventory Control
   : Avoid capital occupation caused by post-Spring Festival unsold stock
3. Channel Coordination
   : Balance benefit distribution among distributors
4. Competitor Response
   : Monitor competitors’ Spring Festival promotion dynamics

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[1] Bain & Company. Improvement in the FMCG Market, Cautiously Optimistic Outlook for 2025[R]. 2025.

[2] Sinolink Securities. Food and Beverage Industry Report: Spring Festival Sales Momentum Better Than Expected[R]. 2024.

[3] CSDN. Spring Recruitment Interview Question Bank (Data Analysis-related Positions)[EB/OL]. 2025.

[4] 36Kr. Dayao Soda with Annual Sales of 3 Billion RMB: Why Does It Repeatedly Face Rumors of “Being Sold”?[EB/OL]. 2024.

[5] Xinhua News Agency. Decoding Dayao Beverage’s 2025 Product Strategy: Diversified Matrix Opens Up New Growth Paths[EB/OL]. 2025.

[6] The Paper. Soft Drink Industry 2025: Breaking Through Dilemmas, Anchoring the Future[EB/OL]. 2025.