Analysis on the Strong Performance of Biwin Storage (688525): Earnings Outbreak Driven by the Storage Super Cycle and AI Demand

Biwin Storage performed strongly on January 16, 2025, with its closing price rising 17.19% and hitting the 20% daily limit, setting a new all-time high of approximately RMB 181 [1][2]. The company has been included in the strong stock pool and became the leading gainer in the memory chip concept sector on that day. This strong performance stems from the annual performance forecast released on January 13, 2025, which showed a far-exceeding-market-expectation surge in earnings, combined with the structural positive of the global memory industry entering a “super cycle” [3][4][5].

From the timeline perspective, on January 14 (the first trading day after the release of the performance forecast), the stock price rose 7.77% to hit a new all-time high of RMB 155, maintained its strength on January 15, and hit the 20% daily limit on January 16 [4]. Its cumulative increase since 2025 has reached approximately 135%, showing extremely strong performance. The net inflow of main capital reached RMB 386 million, and the turnover rate of 12.18% indicates active market transactions [2].

[3][4][5]:

Financial Indicator	Full Year 2025	YoY Change	Q4 Single Quarter	YoY Change
Operating Revenue	RMB 10-12 billion	+49%~79%	RMB 3.4-5.4 billion	+105%~225%
Net Profit Attributable to Parent Companies	RMB 850-1,000 million	+427%~520%	RMB 820-970 million	+1225%~1450%
Non-recurring Net Profit	RMB 760-900 million	+1035%~1244%	-	-

Notably, the fourth quarter alone contributed over 90% of the full-year net profit, with the single-quarter net profit surging by more than 12 times year-on-year [4]. This earnings outbreak stems from the superposition of three factors: memory prices have stabilized and rebounded from the cyclical low in Q1 2025; the gradual delivery of key projects has driven the recovery of sales revenue and gross profit margin; and the emerging edge AI sector has maintained a high-growth trend [3][5].

The global memory chip market is experiencing a rare “super cycle”. According to industry information, Samsung and SK Hynix plan to increase server DRAM prices by 60%-70% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4, while NAND Flash contract prices are expected to rise by 33%-38% [1][4]. JPMorgan expects the average DRAM price to rise by nearly 60% year-on-year in 2026 [4].

Tight supply and demand is the core driver of continuous price hikes. Memory manufacturers have shifted a large amount of their production capacity to HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) production, leading to a severe shortage of supply for general-purpose DRAM and NAND Flash [1]. Leading cloud service providers have placed huge procurement orders with memory manufacturers, and industry insiders stated that this is the first time they have encountered such extreme market conditions in nearly 20 years of practice [4]. The demand from AI application deployment is solid, and the demand for memory from data centers continues to grow, forming a solid support on the demand side.

[2][6]:

• The cumulative deviation of closing price increases over three consecutive trading days exceeds 30%, triggering an exchange announcement on abnormal price fluctuations
• The stock price hit a new all-time high (approximately RMB 181), breaking through all previous resistance levels
• The turnover rate is 12.18%, with good volume coordination and active capital turnover
• Net inflow of main capital is RMB 386 million, with a main capital net inflow ratio of 3.89%
• Ranked 13th in the main capital inflow ranking of its industry

The memory chip concept sector rose 4.08% on January 16, ranking first among concept sectors in terms of increase, with 145 individual stocks in the sector rising [2]. The Chiplet/advanced packaging concept also strengthened simultaneously, forming a good sector linkage effect. GigaDevice (+10%), Changjiang Electronics Technology (+10%), Tongfu Microelectronics (+10%) and other industry chain stocks were also sought after by capital [2].

The fundamental support for Biwin Storage is reflected in the following dimensions [5][6]:

: The company provides low-power, high-performance, small-form-factor, large-capacity memory solutions, and maintains a high-growth trend in the emerging edge AI sector. This sector is an important scenario for AI deployment, with high certainty in demand growth.

: The wafer-level advanced packaging and testing manufacturing project has entered the sample verification stage. Although it is still in the early stage, it represents the company’s strategic direction of extending to high-value-added sectors [5][6].

: The company’s inventory scale increased from RMB 3.537 billion at the end of 2024 to RMB 5.695 billion at the end of Q3 2025, a growth rate of over 60% [4], reflecting the company’s optimistic expectations for subsequent sales and its active stocking strategy.

: As of December 2025, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase II (Big Fund II) remains the second-largest shareholder with a 6.91% stake [5], reflecting the confidence of industrial capital in the company’s long-term development.

[4][5]:

The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 9,342,600 shares (accounting for 2% of the total share capital), with the reduction period from February 4 to May 3, 2026. Based on the current stock price, the cash proceeds from the reduction will exceed RMB 1.3 billion [4][5]. In addition, a large number of restricted shares (24.11%) were unlocked on December 30, 2025, and the concerted action agreement expired and terminated, providing convenient conditions for scattered share reductions in the future. Shareholders holding less than 5% of the shares can freely reduce their holdings without announcement after six months [4].

[6]:

Memory prices are at historical highs, and the company has officially reminded investors to pay attention to the risk of cyclical corrections. The wafer-level advanced packaging project is still in the sample verification stage, and its progress may fall short of expectations. In terms of supply chain risks, 70% of the company’s costs come from memory wafers. The tight supply of memory wafers and price fluctuations directly affect the company’s performance. The company also reminded investors to pay attention to the sustainability risk of AI investment. Price hikes of terminal products may suppress demand, and the supply-demand pattern may change after the peak of supply shortage in H2 2026 [4].

Institutions are generally optimistic about the sustainability of this memory super cycle [4][5]. Chen Haijin, an analyst at Soochow Securities, believes that the company is expected to continue to benefit from the upward memory cycle and the volume growth trend of edge AI memory. Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that this AI-driven memory super cycle has strong sustainability, and will drive the domestic memory industry chain to benefit simultaneously. China Merchants Securities believes that AI has driven the global memory chip industry into a “super cycle”, and the supply-demand mismatch has driven product price hikes beyond expectations.

[4][5][6]:

• The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund’s share reduction plan will be implemented starting from February 2026
• There is strong expectation of continued memory price hikes in Q1 2026
• The application for H-share listing was submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 28, 2025, and is still awaiting approval from relevant regulatory authorities such as the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
• The progress of order fulfillment for the advanced packaging project deserves continuous attention

Biwin Storage’s current strong performance is driven by the superposition of three factors: earnings surge, industry super cycle, and AI demand, with strong fundamental support. In the short term, the cumulative deviation of price increase over three trading days exceeding 30% implies certain correction pressure; the upcoming implementation of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund’s share reduction plan may cause periodic disturbances to the stock price. In the medium to long term, if the memory super cycle continues, combined with the H-share listing and the implementation of the advanced packaging business, the company’s valuation will have further support.

Investors should closely monitor memory price trends, earnings fulfillment, progress of the advanced packaging project, and the specific impact of the share reduction plan implementation. The memory industry has strong cyclical characteristics, and the current stock price has fully reflected expectations. Investors need to carefully evaluate the risk-return ratio when chasing the rally.