In-Depth Analysis of the Impact of Novo Nordisk (NVO)'s Wegovy High-Dose Approval

On

, the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approved an increase in the maximum weekly dosage of Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide (Wegovy) to [1][2]. This regimen is only indicated for weight management in adult patients with obesity (BMI ≥ 30kg/m²), and must be used in conjunction with a low-calorie diet and exercise. It is not suitable for overweight individuals (BMI < 30) or for patients seeking to reduce the risk of severe heart disease.

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The global GLP-1 weight-loss drug market currently presents a

, with Novo Nordisk facing strong challenges from Eli Lilly:

Metric	Novo Nordisk (NVO)	Eli Lilly (LLY)
Core Product	Wegovy (semaglutide)	Zepbound (tirzepatide)
2024 Market Share	59%	41%
2025 Market Share	50%	50%
12-Month Stock Performance	-31.24%	+36.35%
Market Capitalization	$253.9 Billion	$926.0 Billion
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	16.25x	50.32x

Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 market share dropped from 59% in 2024 to 50% in 2025, and its obesity drug market share plummeted even more sharply from 74% to 53%[0][3]. This change is mainly due to:

1. Efficacy Gap
   : Eli Lilly’s Zepbound achieved approximately 20-21% weight loss in clinical trials, slightly higher than the 16.6% of Wegovy’s standard 2.4mg dose
2. Capacity Bottlenecks
   : Wegovy supply shortages in 2024 allowed Eli Lilly to rapidly seize market share
3. Impact of Combination Drugs
   : As many as 30% of patients in the U.S. have switched to combination versions, and Wegovy has been hit harder due to its molecular structure being easier to replicate

The approval of Wegovy’s 7.2mg high-dose regimen will reshape the competitive landscape across

:

Competitive Factor	Before 7.2mg Approval	After 7.2mg Approval
Maximum Weight Loss Efficacy	16.6%	20.7%
Gap vs. Zepbound	~4%	Essentially Equal
Coverage of Severe Obesity Patients	Limited	One-third can achieve 25%+ weight loss

Clinical data from the STEP UP trial shows:

• 20.7%
  average weight loss (vs. 2.4% in the placebo group)[4]
• 33%
  of participants achieved
  25% or more
  weight loss[4]
• Efficacy over the 72-week treatment period is comparable to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound 15mg dose[5]

This means that Novo Nordisk has eliminated the gap with its competitor in

, and patients no longer need to switch to other brands due to “efficacy plateau”.

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Novo Nordisk’s latest financial report (Q3 2025) shows:

• Revenue: $11.78 billion (year-over-year growth)
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.02, exceeding market expectations by 32.47%[0]
• Net Profit Margin: 32.88%, demonstrating strong profitability
• Q4 2025 earnings report will be released on February 4, 2026, with market expectations of $11.87 billion in revenue[0]

High-dose regimens typically mean higher unit prices. Based on the current market pricing structure, the 7.2mg dose is expected to be priced significantly higher than the 2.4mg version, bringing to the company.

Previously, some patients switched to Zepbound after reaching Wegovy’s standard 2.4mg dose due to an “efficacy plateau”. The high-dose regimen provides an option, which helps:

• Reduce patient churn rate
• Increase customer Lifetime Value (LTV)
• Reduce marketing and customer acquisition costs

Starting in July 2025, CVS Caremark (the largest pharmacy benefit manager in the U.S.) has listed Wegovy as a [3][6]. This strategic channel position, combined with the high-dose product, will help Novo Nordisk regain its advantage in prescription penetration.

The global obesity drug market is in a period of explosive growth:

• 2024 Market Size: Approximately $60 billion
• 2025 Forecast: $100 billion (+67%)
• 2028 Forecast: $320 billion[7]
• 97% of obese patients still remain untreated
  , leaving huge growth potential

Scenario	2026 Revenue Growth Impact	Key Assumptions
Optimistic Scenario	+12%	Rapid uptake of high-dose, market share recovery, ASP increase
Base Case Scenario	+5%	Normal uptake, stable competitive landscape
Conservative Scenario	-3%	Eli Lilly launches superior products, continued erosion from combination drugs
Neutral Scenario	+2%	Overall market growth offsets competitive pressure

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Advantage Area	Details
Capacity Investment	Invested DKK 47.2 billion in 2024 to expand production, spent $11 billion to acquire three Catalent production facilities, and the FDA has announced that supply shortage issues have been resolved[3]
Brand Recognition	First-mover advantage of Wegovy as the “first” GLP-1 weight-loss drug
Channel Position	Preferred prescription status with CVS Caremark, advantages in PBM channels
R&D Pipeline	CagriSema (combination formulation), oral Wegovy (FDA-approved in December 2025)[8], triple agonist drug (24% weight loss efficacy)
Global Layout	Accelerated expansion in emerging markets such as China, India, and Africa

Risk Type	Details
Patent Expiry	Key patents for semaglutide are set to expire in multiple countries, intensifying generic drug competition[9]
Legal Litigation	Compounding pharmacy Strive has filed an antitrust lawsuit accusing Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly of colluding to suppress combination drugs[10]
Price Pressure	U.S. politicians (Senator Bernie Sanders) have criticized Wegovy’s high pricing (U.S. $1,300+ vs. Europe <$200)[3]
Competitor Iteration	Eli Lilly’s Retatrutide (triple agonist) has shown 29% weight loss efficacy, leading in pipeline development[11]

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Metric	Data
Current Stock Price	$57.12
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	16.25x (approximately 68% discount to Eli Lilly)
Analyst Consensus Rating	Buy (61.5% of analysts recommend Buy)
Consensus Target Price	$47.00 (17.7% discount to current stock price)
Price Range	$42.00 - $54.00

: Novo Nordisk’s current valuation is approximately one-third of Eli Lilly’s, but considering its leading position in the diabetes field (supplying over 50% of the world’s insulin), the results of its capacity expansion, and the boost to competitiveness from the high-dose regimen, there may be .

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The approval of Wegovy’s 7.2mg high-dose regimen is a

for Novo Nordisk, mainly reflected in:

1. Efficacy Gap Closure
   : Eliminates the core efficacy gap with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, stabilizing the patient base
2. Revenue Enhancement
   : The high-dose regimen drives ASP growth, and the “upgrade without switching drugs” strategy increases patient LTV
3. Stabilized Competition
   : Combined with the preferred channel status with CVS Caremark, it is expected to halt further market share losses

However, investors need to pay attention to:

• Patent expiry and generic drug competition remain long-term risks
• Next-generation products such as Eli Lilly’s Retatrutide may re-open the efficacy gap
• The outcome of antitrust lawsuits may impact the business model

: At the current valuation level (16.25x P/E), combined with the positive impact of the 7.2mg approval and continued market expansion, Novo Nordisk has . It is recommended to pay attention to the Q4 2025 earnings report in February 2026 and management’s guidance on the uptake of the high-dose regimen.

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[0] Jinling AI Brokerage API Data - Novo Nordisk (NVO) Company Profile and Financial Analysis

[1] GuruFocus - “UK Approves Higher Wegovy Dose for Obesity; Novo Nordisk Shares Rise 3%” (https://www.gurufocus.com/news/4114810/uk-approves-higher-wegovy-dose-for-obesity-novo-nordisk-shares-rise-3)

[2] Bloomberg - “Get Ready for Generic Ozempic as a Key Patent Expires” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-16/how-generic-weight-loss-drugs-will-reshape-global-health-care)

[3] CompoundingQuality.net - “Deep Dive Novo Nordisk - Investment Case” (https://www.compoundingquality.net/p/deep-dive-novo-nordisk)

[4] AOL News - “Weight loss jab to launch stronger dosage as UK demand…” (https://www.aol.com/articles/wegovy-launch-stronger-dose-weight-092828100.html)

[5] NowPatient - “Is Wegovy 7.2mg stronger than Mounjaro 15mg?” (https://nowpatient.com/blog/is-wegovy-7-2mg-stronger-than-mounjaro-15mg)

[6] Drug Topics - “Obesity Management: Most-Read Stories of 2025” (https://www.drugtopics.com/view/obesity-management-most-read-stories-of-2025)

[7] Fierce Pharma - “Lilly’s Zepbound, Mounjaro show out with $10B quarter despite CVS…” (https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/cvs-formulary-hitch-doesnt-dent-lillys-zepbound-growth-analyst-hails-strong-quarter-across)

[8] PR Newswire - “Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy Pill Now Broadly Available Across America” (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/novo-nordisks-wegovy-pill-the-first-and-only-oral-glp-1-for-weight-loss-in-adults-now-broadly-available-across-america-302652205.html)

[9] Bloomberg - “How generic weight-loss drugs will reshape global health care” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-16/how-generic-weight-loss-drugs-will-reshape-global-health-care)

[10] Endpoints News - “A compounding pharmacy hits back at Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk with antitrust lawsuit” (https://endpoints.news/a-compounding-pharmacy-hits-back-at-eli-lilly-novo-nordisk-with-antitrust-lawsuit/)

[11] GoodRx - “The Latest Updates: 14 New Weight-Loss Drugs on the Horizon” (https://www.goodrx.com/conditions/weight-loss/new-weight-loss-drugs)