In-Depth Analysis Report on Daimler Truck's North American Sales Volume

Based on collected data and market information, I have prepared this in-depth analysis report for you.

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The tariff policy of the U.S. Trump administration is the primary external factor leading to the sharp decline in North American sales. According to reports from the Financial Times and Transport Topics, due to logistics companies’ concerns about further increases in truck prices, they generally postponed their procurement plans, resulting in a 53% year-on-year plunge in order volume to 13,842 units in the second quarter of 2025 [1][2]. Although the 25% Section 232 tariff on heavy-duty trucks and parts, originally scheduled to take effect on October 1, 2024, was delayed to November 1, the specific scope of affected models and parts remains unclear. This policy uncertainty has severely suppressed end-demand. Daimler Truck currently benefits from the USMCA trade agreement framework, which allows it to assemble trucks in Mexico and ship them to the U.S. duty-free, but this arrangement may be broken by a national security investigation in the future [1].

The North American truck market is experiencing the longest freight rate recession on record. According to Transport Topics, sales of heavy-duty Class 8 trucks in the U.S. in 2024 were 156,187 units, down 4% year-on-year; sales in Canada fell 5% to 15,608 units [2]. Weak freight rates have compressed the profit margins of logistics companies, suppressing both their willingness and ability to update their fleets. More worryingly, leading industry indicators show that truck orders have declined year-on-year for 8 consecutive months, and operators generally expect no substantial recovery in the freight market in the coming months [2].

Persistent supply chain challenges have dealt a double blow to Daimler Truck’s North American business: on the one hand, unstable supply of key components affects vehicle delivery capabilities; on the other hand, economic uncertainty has interrupted the market recovery expected at the end of 2024. Eva Scherer, CFO of Daimler Truck, stated that against the backdrop of global uncertainty, the company can only focus on controllable factors – improving organizational operational efficiency and strict cost management [3].

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Data for the third quarter of 2025 shows that Daimler Truck’s global sales volume was 98,009 units, down 15% year-on-year; industrial business revenue was €10.6 billion, down 14% year-on-year [3]. Cumulative sales in the first three quarters were 304,536 units, down 9% year-on-year. The company has revised its 2025 full-year sales forecast from the initial 460,000 units to the range of 410,000 to 440,000 units [3]. The table below shows the sales performance of each regional market:

Region	2024 Sales (thousand units)	2025 Sales (thousand units)	YoY Change
North America	191.0	141.8	-26%
Europe	124.0	134.0	+8%
Asia	82.0	75.3	-8%
Other	63.0	71.4	+13%

The impact on profitability is even more severe. The group’s adjusted EBIT in the third quarter was €716 million, a sharp 40% year-on-year decline; the adjusted operating margin of the industrial business fell from 9.3% in the third quarter of 2024 to 6.3% [3]. Cumulative adjusted EBIT in the first three quarters was €2.998 billion, down 16% year-on-year. The free cash flow situation is also worrying, with the industrial business’s free cash flow in the first three quarters being only €77 million, a sharp 91% year-on-year decline [3]. Full-year net profit in 2024 fell 23% to $3.334 billion, and revenue fell 3% year-on-year to $58.802 billion [2].

Despite the severe drag from the North American business, other regional markets have performed relatively robustly. Mercedes-Benz Truck’s sales volume in the third quarter increased 8% year-on-year to 39,290 units, regaining the top market share in Europe; Daimler Buses continues to maintain strong profit performance; the financial services division has seen improvements in both profit and profit margin [3]. However, the Asian market faces difficult conditions in key markets such as Japan and Indonesia, with sales volume falling 8% year-on-year to 25,515 units in the third quarter.

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The share price of Daimler Truck (DTG.DE) on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange has continued to fall from its July 2025 high of €42.83, dropping to around €39.74 in January 2026 [4][5]. This trend reflects the market’s pricing of the difficulties in the North American business. Looking at a longer cycle, the stock price hit a high of €42.65 in January 2025, then entered a downward channel due to growing concerns about the North American business. Notably, the stock price fell to a low of €34.71 in October 2025, and has since gradually stabilized and rebounded.

Current analyst consensus shows:

[5]. The average target price is €41.31, implying an upside of approximately 4% compared to the current price. The price-to-earnings ratio is currently 13.61 times, lower than the historical average, and the valuation has fully reflected the market’s expectations of short-term difficulties [4][5]. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) to grow 24.76% to €3.83 in 2026, and further increase by 22.72% to €4.70 in 2027, indicating confidence in long-term recovery [4].

The market is currently focused on three core variables: first, the final direction of U.S. tariff policy and its potential impact on the Mexico assembly business; second, the timing of the freight market recovery, which directly determines the speed of order volume recovery; third, the implementation effect of the company’s cost-cutting program, including the specific results of the 5,000-person layoff in Germany and the €1 billion cost-cutting program in Europe [1][3].

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In the face of the severe market environment, Daimler Truck has launched a number of cost control measures: laying off 2,000 production employees in the North American business; the parent company plans to lay off 5,000 people in Germany; the European business has launched a €1 billion cost-cutting program, targeting at least €1 billion in cost savings by 2030 [1][3]. In addition, the company is actively adjusting its business structure, seeking to double the size of its defense business (currently accounting for about 1% of total revenue) by 2030, while merging its Japanese heavy-duty truck business with Toyota to cope with competitive pressure from Chinese rivals [1].

Karin Rådström, CEO of Daimler Truck, emphasized that the company is focusing on “factors that can be actively controlled”, including improving organizational operational efficiency and strict cost management. Notably, despite the difficulties, Daimler Truck maintains a leading position in core markets: its North American truck business continues to lead the U.S. market, Daimler Buses maintains the top position in core European markets, and Mercedes-Benz Truck has reclaimed the title of the number one brand in the European market [3].

The company will maintain its 2025 full-year outlook unchanged: it expects group full-year sales volume to be 410,000 to 440,000 units, industrial business revenue to be €44 billion to €47 billion; adjusted EBIT is expected to be between €3.6 billion and €4.1 billion; adjusted operating margin of the industrial business is expected to be 7% to 9%; free cash flow of the industrial business is expected to be €1.5 billion to €2 billion [3]. The company also warned that the outlook will still be affected by macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, especially the direction of U.S. trade policy.

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The 26% decline in Daimler Truck’s North American sales volume is the result of multiple overlapping factors: procurement delays caused by U.S. tariff policy uncertainty, demand contraction brought by the longest-ever freight recession, and supply chain bottlenecks. This downturn has significantly dragged down global performance, with global sales falling 15% in the third quarter and profit margin contracting to 6.3%. However, the robust performance of the European business and the company’s proactive response measures provide support for long-term recovery. The stock price has fully reflected short-term difficulties, and the current valuation has a certain margin of safety.

Risk Type	Specific Content	Impact Level
Policy Risk	Changes in U.S. tariff policy may affect Mexico business arrangements	High
Industry Cycle	Uncertainty about the timing of freight market recovery	High
Geopolitical Risk	China-EU relations, China-U.S. trade frictions may affect business	Medium
Competitive Pressure	Global expansion of Chinese commercial vehicle enterprises intensifies competition	Medium

• Rebound in European market share, with Mercedes-Benz Truck reclaiming the top position
• Electric vehicle sales increased 175% year-on-year, and transformation continues to advance
• Cost-cutting programs will gradually release profit improvement space
• Financial services business maintains steady growth

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The chart above shows a comprehensive analysis of Daimler Truck’s share price trend, regional sales comparison, quarterly sales trend, and profitability. The chart clearly shows that the North American market is the main source of decline, the European business has performed robustly, and profitability showed a significant contraction in 2025.

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[1] Financial Times - “Daimler Truck Does Not Rule Out Exiting Chinese Manufacturing, Faces Challenges from U.S. Tariffs and Weak European Demand” (https://www.ft.com/content/daimler-truck-china-exit)

[2] Transport Topics - “Daimler Truck Eyes Reset as Steady DTNA Awaits OTR Rebound” (https://www.ttnews.com/articles/daimler-truck-earnings-q4-2024)

[3] Europe & America Truck Network - “Daimler Truck Releases Q3 2025 and First Three Quarters Performance Data” (https://omkcw.com/company-news/7689.html)

[4] Simply Wall St - “Daimler Truck Holding Future Growth” (https://simplywall.st/stocks/de/capital-goods/etr-dtg/daimler-truck-holding-shares/future)

[5] Yahoo Finance - “Daimler Truck Holding AG (DTG.DE) Analysis” (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DTG.DE/analysis/)