Analysis of the Impact of ERCOT's Approval on Galaxy Digital's Cryptocurrency Mining Power Business

Based on the latest information I have collected, I will provide you with a detailed analysis of the impact of ERCOT’s approval on Galaxy Digital’s cryptocurrency mining power business.

According to official announcements, Galaxy Digital completed a Large Load Interconnection Study (LLIS) on January 15, 2026, and successfully obtained approval from ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) to add an additional 830 megawatts (MW) of computing power demand capacity at its Helios Data Center Campus in West Texas [1][2]. This approval doubles the total rated capacity of the Helios facility to approximately 1.6 gigawatts (GW), marking a major breakthrough for Galaxy Digital in the construction of Texas power infrastructure [1].

As part of this approval, Galaxy Digital also signed a service agreement with AEP Texas Inc., with Wind Energy Transmission Texas, LLC (WETT) serving as the transmission interconnection provider, to complete the LLIS [2]. Currently, Galaxy Digital is advancing the construction under its long-term lease agreement with CoreWeave as planned, with the first batch of power expected to be delivered in early 2026 [1][2].

ERCOT’s approval has a profound impact on Galaxy Digital’s business model. The company is transforming its original Bitcoin mining facilities into artificial intelligence data centers, a transition of significant strategic importance in the current market environment. Galaxy Digital’s 15-year lease agreement with CoreWeave is expected to generate over $100 million in annual revenue, demonstrating the market value of high-density computing infrastructure [3].

According to analysis from Piper Sandler, if the newly approved 830 MW capacity is contracted under economic terms similar to the CoreWeave deal, it could contribute over $10 per share in value to the company [1]. This estimate reflects strong market expectations for AI data center capacity demand and Galaxy Digital’s competitive advantages in this field.

On June 20, 2025, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed Senate Bill 6 (SB6), which imposes new regulatory requirements on large energy users (including data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations) in the ERCOT region [3]. The bill sets more stringent interconnection requirements and cost allocation rules for large loads of 75 MW or more.

1. Optimization of Interconnection Process and Increased Costs
   : SB6 aims to eliminate “ghost loads” – speculative projects that apply for interconnection but may never actually be built. This could lead to extended project timelines and increased costs [3].

2. Technical Requirements for Large Electric Loads (LEL)
   : In November 2025, ERCOT submitted proposals NPRR 1308 and NOGRR 282, defining frequency and voltage ride-through requirements for large electric loads (large loads of 75 MW or more with over 50% computing load), which set higher standards for the operational stability of cryptocurrency mining and data center facilities [3].

3. Grid Reliability Pressures
   : The number of large load applications to ERCOT surged from the total of 2022-2024 to 225 in the first 11 months of 2025, with total capacity exceeding 70,000 MW [3]. This growth in demand has brought enormous pressure to grid planning, potentially leading to a 15-20% increase in electricity costs [3].

According to data from TipRanks, Wall Street analysts are broadly positive on Galaxy Digital [4]:

• Consensus Price Target
  : Raised from $37.78 to $46.90, reflecting a significant upward revision of the company’s performance and outlook [5]
• 11 out of 12 analysts have issued Buy or equivalent ratings
  [4]
• Rosenblatt Securities
  : Raised target price from $44 to $46 [5]
• Piper Sandler
  : Reiterated Overweight rating with a target price of $42 [1]
• Jefferies
  : Raised target price to $48 [1]

1. Adjustments to Revenue Growth Expectations
   : Although revenue growth expectations were sharply revised down from 199.85% to 68.35%, indicating a more prudent growth outlook, the company’s fundamentals remain robust [5].

2. Dual Drivers of Digital Assets and Data Centers
   : Analysts believe Galaxy Digital is evolving into a “hybrid digital asset/AI data center platform” with dual growth drivers [5].

3. Per-Share Value Contribution
   : Piper Sandler estimates that the new 830 MW capacity at the Helios Data Center alone could contribute over $10 per share in value [1].

1. Market Volatility Risk
   : Galaxy Digital’s stock price was highly volatile in 2025, surging from below $9 in April to nearly $43 before falling back to approximately $28 [4][6]. The company’s announcement of a roughly $1 billion exchange note offering in October 2025 sparked investor concerns about dilution effects [4].

2. Pressure from Rising Electricity Costs
   : As demand for AI data centers surges, electricity costs in Texas could rise by 15-20%, which will compress profit margins for traditional Bitcoin mining operations [3].

3. Regulatory Uncertainties
   : While ERCOT’s approval is a positive for Galaxy Digital, uncertainties remain regarding the implementation details of SB6 and the enforcement discretion of the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) [3].

:

• ERCOT’s approval marks an important milestone in Galaxy Digital’s transition from cryptocurrency mining to AI data centers
• The 1.6 GW of approved capacity positions the company as one of the largest and fastest-growing data center developers in North America
• The consensus analyst rating and raised target price reflect market recognition of the company’s strategic transition

:

• Tighter regulation in Texas’ electricity market may increase operating costs
• The transition from traditional cryptocurrency mining to AI data centers requires sustained capital investment
• Volatility in the digital asset market remains a key factor affecting the company’s performance

:

Based on current data,

. Instead, market data shows that analysts generally their target prices during recent adjustments. The consensus target price of $46.90 implies significant upside potential from current trading levels, but investors should pay attention to the Q4 and full-year financial results to be released on February 3, 2026, for a more accurate assessment of the company’s business outlook [1].

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[1] Investing.com - “Galaxy Digital stock gets ERCOT approval for 830 MW expansion at Helios” (https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/galaxy-digital-stock-gets-ercot-approval-for-830-mw-expansion-at-helios-93CH-4450306)

[2] Galaxy Digital Investor Relations - “Galaxy Completes ERCOT Interconnection Studies and Secures Approval for Additional 830 Megawatts at Helios Data Center Campus” (https://investor.galaxy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/galaxy-completes-ercot-interconnection-studies-and-secures)

[3] Brave New Coin - “Texas Grid Overwhelmed: AI Data Center Energy Demand Surpasses Bitcoin Miners” (https://bravenewcoin.com/zh-CN/可行的洞察/德克萨斯州电网不堪重负，人工智能数据中心能源需求超过比特币矿工)

[4] TipRanks - “Galaxy Digital (GLXY) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts” (https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/glxy/forecast)

[5] Yahoo Finance - “Why Analysts Say Galaxy Digital’s Evolving Story Is Shifting Its Valuation and Growth Outlook” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-analysts-galaxy-digital-evolving-211542313.html)

[6] MarketBeat - “The Bullish Case for Galaxy Digital in 2026” (https://www.marketbeat.com/originals/the-bullish-case-for-galaxy-digital-in-2026/)