Lianke Technology (001207) Limit-Up Analysis: Short-Term Breakout Driven by Carbon Black Concept

The core catalyst for Lianke Technology’s limit-up today comes from the overall performance of the carbon black concept sector. According to Sohu Finance, carbon black concept stocks rose 1.41% on the day [1], and Lianke Technology, as a leading enterprise in the carbon black field, directly benefited. As an important raw material for industries such as rubber, plastics, and coatings, especially indispensable in tire manufacturing, carbon black demand has gradually increased with the recovery of the global automotive industry, driving performance growth of related enterprises [1].

From the perspective of capital flows, today’s turnover reached 78.78 million yuan, with a trading volume of 13.31 million shares, which is more than 4 times the average daily trading volume of 3.29 million shares, indicating a large influx of capital [0]. The specific capital composition shows obvious differentiation: retail capital saw a net inflow of 8.25 million yuan, accounting for as high as 10.47% of the turnover, reflecting strong market participation enthusiasm; main force capital had a net inflow of 1.37 million yuan, accounting for 1.73% with relatively limited participation; hot money saw a net outflow of 9.62 million yuan, accounting for -12.2% [1]. This capital structure of “retail-dominated, hot money withdrawal” indicates that today’s limit-up was driven more by market sentiment and retail chasing gains, rather than systematic buying by institutional capital.

The company delivered steady performance in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving operating revenue of 1.788 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.66%; net profit attributable to parent company was 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.26% [0][2]. The net profit growth rate was significantly faster than the revenue growth rate, indicating continuous improvement in the company’s profitability. The return on equity (ROE) reached 14.92%, net profit margin was 12.57%, and gross profit margin was 14.33%, all indicators being within a reasonable range [0]. As of September 30, 2025, multiple public funds newly entered the top 10 tradable shareholders, including Hua’an Anxin Consumption Hybrid A (holding 965,000 shares), Huaxia Xingyang One-Year Holding Hybrid (holding 860,500 shares), and Hua’an Exquisite Life Hybrid A (holding 726,900 shares) [2], reflecting institutional recognition of the company’s long-term value.

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Indicator	Value
Current Price	¥27.15 (Limit-Up Price)
52-Week High	¥28.11
Support Level	¥24.99
Next Target Level	¥27.94

Today’s stock price rose sharply at the opening, touched the limit-up board at 10:30 and remained sealed until the close [1]. The current price is only 3.4% away from the 52-week high, and after breaking through the resistance level of ¥27.15, the next target points to ¥27.94 [0].

Indicator	Status	Signal Interpretation
MACD	Golden Cross	Bullish signal, confirming an uptrend [0]
KDJ	K:57.5, D:42.6, J:87.2	J-value is overbought, short-term pullback risk [0]
RSI(14)	Overbought Zone	Warning of short-term overheating risk [0]
Beta	0.74	Low correlation with the broader market, relatively independent trend [0]

The technical aspect shows a mixed bull-bear pattern: the MACD golden cross confirms a positive medium-term trend, but the KDJ J-value is as high as 87.2 and RSI has entered the overbought zone, indicating a short-term risk of overheating pullback [0]. Investors need to closely follow the subsequent volume coordination.

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The carbon black concept benefits from the macro background of automotive industry recovery, and the market has optimistic expectations for the growth of raw material demand. The company’s net profit in the first three quarters increased by 15.26% year-on-year, with steady performance growth [2]. Multiple public funds newly entered the top 10 tradable shareholders, increasing institutional attention [2]. The MACD golden cross and KDJ indicators form a breakout pattern, providing a bullish signal technically [0].

However, today’s limit-up has obvious sentiment-driven characteristics: hot money saw net outflows, main force and institutional capital participation is limited, and the limit-up was driven more by sector sentiment rather than major fundamental positive news [1]. Technical indicators show overbought risks, with the J-value reaching 87.2 and RSI in the overbought zone [0]. It is worth noting that the basic materials sector fell 0.09% overall today [0], and the sustainability of the carbon black concept amid sector rotation remains to be observed. In addition, there is a suspicion of follow-up speculation due to the lack of support from substantial positive announcements.

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Risk Type	Specific Performance	Risk Level
Volatility Risk	Trading volume abnormally surged 4 times, strong short-term speculation atmosphere	Medium-High
Chasing Highs Risk	Limit-up was sealed early, risk of board breaking exists	Medium-High
Overheated Sentiment	Lack of substantial positive announcements, suspected concept speculation	Medium
Sector Rotation	A-share market hot spots switch frequently, sustainability is questionable	Medium

The current stock price is only about 3.4% away from the 52-week high of ¥28.11. If the carbon black concept can continue to gain momentum and trading volume remains at a high level, it is expected to challenge the previous high or even achieve consecutive limit-ups. The company has solid fundamentals and high certainty of performance growth, with allocation value in the medium and long term. Technically, the MACD golden cross confirms the medium-term trend; if the pullback does not break the ¥24.99 support level, investors may consider buying on dips.

: The current price has already priced in some upside expectations, and technical indicators show short-term overheating. Considering the recent high volatility in the A-share market, it is recommended that investors control their positions and be cautious about chasing highs.

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Scenario	Probability	Trigger Conditions	Expected Trend
Optimistic	30%	Carbon black concept continues to gain momentum + trading volume remains high	Challenges the previous high of ¥28.11, even consecutive limit-ups
Neutral	50%	Sector differentiation + strong capital absorption	Consolidates at high levels, stays above ¥27
Pessimistic	20%	Sentiment fades + board breaks and pulls back	Retests the ¥24.99 support, or even lower

1. Tomorrow’s Trend
   : Whether it can continue to hit a limit-up or maintain high-level capital absorption
2. Trading Volume Changes
   : Whether it can stay above 10 million shares
3. Sector Linkage
   : Whether carbon black concept stocks strengthen as a whole
4. Capital Flow
   : Whether main force capital turns to continuous net inflow

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Shandong Lianke Technology Co., Ltd.'s main business is the R&D, production, and sales of silica and carbon black [0][1]. The company has a market value of approximately 5.4 billion yuan, with a TTM P/E ratio of 17.86x and P/B ratio of 2.47x, placing it in a reasonable valuation range [0]. In the first three quarters of 2025, it achieved operating revenue of 1.788 billion yuan (YoY +8.66%), net profit attributable to parent company of 230 million yuan (YoY +15.26%), and ROE reached 14.92% [0][2].

The current price of ¥27.15 has broken through an important resistance level, with a support level below at ¥24.99 and a target level above at ¥27.94. The MACD golden cross confirms the medium-term trend, but KDJ and RSI indicate short-term overbought conditions, with a need for a pullback [0]. Trading volume surged 4 times today, so it is necessary to observe whether the subsequent volume can be sustained.

: Medium-high short-term risk, medium medium-to-long-term risk. This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance and invest rationally.