Long-Term Impact Assessment Report on the Price War Between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly's Weight Loss Drugs

Based on comprehensive collected data and market information, I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis report.

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The GLP-1 weight loss drug market is undergoing profound structural changes. According to the latest market data, global GLP-1 drug sales have exceeded $50 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, and Goldman Sachs predicts the market size will reach $130 billion by 2030[1]. This hundred-billion-dollar super market has become the most watched track in the global pharmaceutical industry.

Company	Product Name	Indication	Mechanism of Action
Novo Nordisk	Wegovy/Ozempic	Weight Loss/Glucose Lowering	GLP-1 Single-Target Agonist
Eli Lilly	Zepbound/Mounjaro	Weight Loss/Glucose Lowering	GIP/GLP-1 Dual-Target Agonist

• Novo Nordisk
  : Starting from 2026, the monthly price of Wegovy will be reduced from $1,349 to $299 (77.8% reduction), with the oral semaglutide priced at approximately $149-$299 per month[2]
• Eli Lilly
  : Reduced the monthly price of Zepbound from approximately $1,300 to $245, with the new drug Orforglipron expected to be priced at no more than $50 per month (96.2% reduction)[3]

• Novo Nordisk’s NovoRyz (semaglutide weight loss version)
  : Hospital listed price reduced by approximately 50%, with some specifications cut from RMB 2,463 to RMB 1,284[1]
• Eli Lilly’s Mufengda (tirzepatide)
  : 4 specifications reduced by approximately 80%, cutting the 16-week treatment cost for patients from around RMB 13,000 to RMB 2,500[1]

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According to market data analysis, the market shares of the two companies are undergoing a significant reversal:

Time Period	Novo Nordisk Share	Eli Lilly Share	Others
2023	72.0%	28.0%	0%
2024	58.0%	42.0%	0%
2025	41.7%	57.9%	0.6%
2026 (Forecast)	35.0%	60.0%	5.0%
2027 (Forecast)	30.0%	62.0%	8.0%
2028 (Forecast)	28.0%	63.0%	9.0%

1. Efficacy Advantage
   : Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide demonstrated superior weight loss efficacy compared to semaglutide in the SURMOUNT-5 head-to-head clinical trial, with a significantly higher average body weight reduction percentage[3]

2. Capacity Breakthrough
   : In April 2025, the FDA announced the resolution of the GLP-1 drug shortage issue, and Eli Lilly’s product supply capacity has been greatly improved[3]

3. Indication Expansion
   : Tirzepatide has been approved by the FDA for the treatment of sleep apnea, and will cover more metabolic diseases in the future

4. Oral Formulation Leadership
   : Eli Lilly’s oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist Orforglipron is expected to be approved via the FDA’s priority review pathway in 2026

1. Patent Expiration Pressure
   : The core patent of semaglutide will expire in China in March 2026, after which generic drugs will enter the market on a large scale[1]

2. Product Iteration Lag
   : R&D progress of dual-target/three-target agonists lags behind Eli Lilly

3. Passive Pricing Strategy
   : After Eli Lilly took the lead in launching the price war, Novo Nordisk was forced to follow up with price cuts

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Financial Indicator	Novo Nordisk	Eli Lilly	Difference Analysis
Market Capitalization	$253.9 billion	$927.9 billion	Eli Lilly leads by 3.65x
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	16.12x	50.32x	Market has higher growth expectations for Eli Lilly
Gross Margin	~82.5%	~78.5%	Novo Nordisk is slightly higher
Operating Margin	42.03%	43.86%	Eli Lilly is slightly higher
Net Profit Margin	32.88%	30.99%	Novo Nordisk is slightly higher
YTD Revenue Growth	23.5%	79.2%	Eli Lilly has faster growth
1-Year Stock Performance	-31.24%	+36.35%	Stock price trends are significantly divergent

Year	Novo Nordisk Gross Margin	Eli Lilly Gross Margin	Difference Change
2024A	82.5%	78.5%	+4.0pp
2025E	80.2%	76.8%	+3.4pp
2026E	76.5%	74.5%	+2.0pp
2027E	74.0%	73.0%	+1.0pp
2028E	72.0%	72.5%	-0.5pp

1. Novo Nordisk Faces Greater Profit Margin Pressure
   :
   • Gross margin is expected to drop from 82.5% to around 72% (a decline of approximately 10 percentage points)
   • Operating margin is projected to fall from 42% to around 34%
   • Main reasons: large price cut (77.8%), generic competition, patent expiration

2. Eli Lilly’s Profit Margin is Relatively Resilient
   :
   • Gross margin is expected to drop from 78.5% to around 72.5% (a decline of approximately 6 percentage points)
   • Product differentiation advantages and market share gains partially offset the impact of price cuts
   • Launch of new products such as Orforglipron can maintain price competitiveness

3. “Volume for Price” Effect
   :
   • Price reductions will significantly improve patient accessibility
   • GLP-1 drug penetration is expected to increase significantly from the current 1%
   • Sales volume growth is expected to partially offset losses from price declines

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Product	2024 Q1-Q3 Revenue	2025 Q1-Q3 Revenue	YoY Growth Rate	Evaluation
Wegovy (Novo Nordisk)	$11.2 billion	$15.6 billion	+39.3%	Strong Growth
Ozempic (Novo Nordisk)	$12.3 billion	$10.9 billion	-11.4%	Affected by Price War
Mounjaro (Eli Lilly)	$8.0 billion	$15.6 billion	+95.0%	Explosive Growth
Zepbound (Eli Lilly)	$3.0 billion	$9.3 billion	+210.0%	Ultra-High Growth

• Combined sales in the first three quarters of 2025 reached $24.837 billion, with a gap of only approximately $1.5 billion compared to semaglutide
• Growth Drivers: Efficacy advantage, capacity release, indication expansion

• Total sales of three core products in the first three quarters of 2025 reached $26.4 billion
• Challenges: Market share loss, price pressure, patent expiration

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The price war is driving the industry to shift from “innovation-driven” to “cost competition”. According to industry expert analysis[1], this shift will bring the following impacts:

1. Efficiency Competition
   : Cost control capabilities will become core competitiveness
2. Scale Effect
   : Companies with large production capacity will gain significant advantages
3. Brand Premium
   : Products with differentiation advantages can still maintain price premiums

Innovation Direction	Novo Nordisk	Eli Lilly
Oral Formulations	Wegovy oral tablets have been approved by the FDA	Orforglipron (expected to launch in 2026)
Multi-Target Agonists	CagriSema (GLP-1/amylin dual-target)	Retatrutide (triple agonist, 28.7% weight loss)
Indication Expansion	Cardiovascular benefit application submitted	Sleep apnea already approved
Muscle Protection	Muscle preservation therapy in development	Bimagrumab

• Semaglutide’s Chinese patent will expire in March 2026
• 10 companies have submitted generic drug applications: Jiuyuan Gene, Livzon Group, Huadong Medicine, Qilu Pharmaceutical, United Laboratories, Wison Biotech, CSPC Pharmaceutical, Chengdu BETTA, Fosun Wanbang, CSPC Zhengda Tianqing[1]
• Generic drug prices are expected to be only 30-50% of the original drug

• Canadian patent expired on January 4, 2026
• European market will face generic competition from 2026 to 2027
• Eli Lilly, with dual-target differentiation advantages, will be relatively less affected by generic drugs

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Company	5-Day Performance	1-Month Performance	3-Month Performance	6-Month Performance	1-Year Performance
Novo Nordisk	-3.95%	+16.67%	+1.84%	-14.80%	-31.24%
Eli Lilly	-4.96%	-2.02%	+26.07%	+30.79%	+36.35%

• Novo Nordisk
  : P/E ratio is only 16.12x, reflecting market concerns about the price war and patent expiration
• Eli Lilly
  : P/E ratio is as high as 50.32x, reflecting market recognition of its growth prospects and competitive position

• Novo Nordisk: Consensus target price of $47, representing a 17.7% discount to the current price[0]
• Eli Lilly: Consensus target price of $1,191, representing a 15.3% premium to the current price[0]

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• Both parties maintain current pricing strategies
• Eli Lilly maintains a 55-65% market share
• Novo Nordisk’s share stabilizes at 25-35%
• Profit margins of both parties decline moderately but remain profitable

• Price war eases, pricing stabilizes
• Market demand continues to grow rapidly
• Both parties benefit from the incremental market
• Gross margin decline is lower than expected (5-7 percentage points)

• Price war escalates further
• Generic drugs enter the market on a large scale, causing prices to plummet
• Novo Nordisk’s gross margin drops below 65%
• Intensified market share competition leads to a significant increase in marketing expenses

Risk Type	Novo Nordisk	Eli Lilly
Patent Risk	High (patent expiration in 2026)	Low (longer patent protection period for dual-target drugs)
Pricing Risk	High (main battlefield of price war)	Medium
Competition Risk	High (continuous share loss)	Low (leading position is stable)
Generic Drug Risk	High	Medium
Policy Risk	Medium	Medium

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1. Market Share
   : Eli Lilly has transformed from a follower to a leader, and is expected to maintain a 55-65% market share from 2026 to 2028; Novo Nordisk’s share is projected to drop from the current 41.7% to around 28% by 2028

2. Profit Margin
   : Both companies will face profit margin pressures from the price war, with Novo Nordisk being more severely affected (gross margin to decline by approximately 10 percentage points), while Eli Lilly is relatively more resilient (gross margin to decline by approximately 6 percentage points)

3. Long-Term Competitiveness
   :
   • Eli Lilly
     : With product differentiation, capacity advantages, and leading oral formulations, it is expected to maintain strong profitability
   • Novo Nordisk
     : Needs to accelerate product iteration (oral formulations, multi-target agonists) to address share loss

4. Industry Impact
   : The price war will drive industry reshuffling, and companies with high efficiency, low costs, and strong product differentiation will ultimately prevail

Company	Rating	Core Logic	Risk Warning
Eli Lilly	Buy on Dips	Market leader with clear growth prospects; valuation premium is supported by performance	Unexpected escalation of price war, product safety incidents
Novo Nordisk	Neutral/Hold	Faces multiple challenges; need to observe the effectiveness of product innovation and cost control	Continuous market share loss, profit margin pressure

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[1] Qianzhan Network - “Breaking! Plunging 80%, the First ‘Price War’ of 2026 Begins” (https://t.qianzhan.com/caijing/detail/260113-78598f8e.html)

[2] Zhitong Finance - “The Weight Loss Drug Landscape Shifts: Tirzepatide Cuts Price by 80%, Semaglutide Patent Countdown” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601163621815986.html)

[3] IQVIA - “Outlook for Obesity in 2026: From Consolidation to…” (https://www.iqvia.com/locations/emea/blogs/2026/01/outlook-for-obesity-in-2026)

[4] Brokerage API Data - Company financial data, market data, technical analysis data [0]

[5] Eli Lilly and Company 10-Q SEC Filing (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947825000254/lly-20250930.htm)

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January 16, 2026

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