Analysis of Qicai Chemistry (300758)'s Strong Performance: Short-term 20% Limit-up Driven by Mass Production of Photoresist Project; Exercise Caution When Chasing High Amid Fundamental Pressures

Qicai Chemistry (300758) surged to a 20% limit-up on January 15, 2026, closing at 20.22 yuan with an increase of 20.01%, achieving two consecutive trading days of “20CM” limit-up [1][2]. In terms of market performance, the stock has entered the strong stock pool and become one of the most watched targets in the ChiNext market on that day.

The core driving factor for this stock price increase is the major breakthrough in the company’s photoresist project. Qicai Chemistry disclosed on the Hudongyi Interactive Platform that “the technical transformation project of 2,000 tons/year photosensitive intermediate and 600 tons/year photoresist photosensitizer raw materials has achieved mass production and external sales” [3]. This news directly triggered bullish sentiment in the market. As the “photosensitive soul” of photoresist, photoresist photosensitizers directly determine the resolution, sensitivity, and line width accuracy of the lithography process, and are indispensable key materials in the chip manufacturing process. Relying on its fine chemical technical advantages accumulated in the field of high-performance organic pigments and intermediates, the company has successfully entered the upstream raw material link of the semiconductor industry chain. This strategic layout aligns with the main investment theme of domestic substitution and independent controllability of semiconductors [3].

From the industry background perspective, about 70% of the global photoresist market is occupied by four Japanese enterprises: JSR, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (TOK), Shin-Etsu Chemical, and Fujifilm. The self-sufficiency rate of high-end photoresist in China is relatively low. The third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund plans to invest over 50 billion yuan to support the R&D and industrialization of photoresist, with a focus on supporting EUV photoresist materials and high-end resins [3]. Qicai Chemistry’s achievement of mass production at this time coincides with a critical window period of policy dividend release and market sentiment recovery.

From a technical perspective, Qicai Chemistry shows a typical strong breakthrough pattern. On January 14, 2026, the stock price broke through the suppression of the annual line, and on January 15, it continued to hit the limit-up and stabilized above the annual line, forming an effective technical breakthrough [5]. However, it is worth noting that the cumulative deviation of the company’s closing price increase over three consecutive trading days has exceeded 30%, triggering the exchange’s abnormal fluctuation attention criteria [4].

Capital flow data shows that main capital has continued to enter the market. On January 15, 2026, the net inflow of main capital was 109 million yuan, accounting for 11.82% of the total turnover; on January 14, the net inflow of main capital was 73.03 million yuan, with a total net inflow of over 180 million yuan in two trading days [1][2]. Notably, on January 15, the net outflow of hot money was 79.2365 million yuan, accounting for 8.61% of the total turnover, indicating that short-term speculative capital has shown signs of profit-taking; retail capital also showed a net outflow of 29.5889 million yuan [1]. This capital structure of “main capital entering, hot money exiting” indicates that there is divergence in the market regarding the short-term trend of the stock.

In terms of trading volume, on January 15, the trading volume was 456,300 lots, the turnover was 921 million yuan, and the turnover rate was 12.46%, showing active capital participation, but high turnover also means that the chips are starting to loosen. The turnover rate on January 14 was as high as 14.31% [1][2][3]. The continuous expansion of volume combined with the limit-up shows that bullish momentum is still being released, but the risk of volume-price divergence needs to be guarded against.

Qicai Chemistry’s main business covers high-performance organic pigments, special new materials, and material monomers, with products serving multiple fields such as inks, coatings, plastics, oil exploration, transportation, medical devices, 5G communications, and flexible copper clad laminates. The company’s customers include global industry leaders such as DIC, Sherwin-Williams, PPG, and Nippon Paint, with strong brand endorsement and customer stickiness [1][3].

However, the company’s recent fundamental performance is under pressure. Data from the 2025 third quarterly report shows that operating revenue in the first three quarters was 1.119 billion yuan, down 3.04% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 73.3886 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 38.96% year-on-year; non-net profit was 79.8067 million yuan, down 27.43% year-on-year [1]. The performance in the third quarter alone was even more severe, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 20.91 million yuan, down 60.56% year-on-year [1]. Financial expenses were as high as 31.2975 million yuan, which significantly eroded profits [1].

From a valuation perspective, at the current performance level, the stock price after consecutive limit-ups may have obviously deviated from fundamental support. Although the company’s entry into the photoresist track has a long-term growth logic, the contribution of this business to overall performance is limited in the short term, leading to a divergence between fundamentals and stock price trends.

The case of Qicai Chemistry reveals a typical path for chemical new material enterprises to extend to the semiconductor material field. Relying on core process technologies such as ammoxidation and hydrogenation, as well as production experience in high-performance organic pigments such as benzimidazolone, the company has successfully achieved a technological leap to the photoresist photosensitizer field [3]. This dual-drive model of “basic chemical industry + high-end materials” provides a reference paradigm for the transformation and upgrading of traditional chemical enterprises.

From the perspective of industrial security, Qicai Chemistry’s breakthrough has special significance. Against the backdrop of the restructuring of the global semiconductor supply chain, as a core consumable for IC manufacturing, there is an urgent demand for domestic substitution of photoresist. The MXD6 material deployed by the company features high barrier properties, light weight, and high rigidity, and has application potential in the fields of packaging and modified engineering plastics [3], further expanding its growth space.

Notably, during this rally, there was obvious differentiation among market participants. Main capital (suspected institutional investors) continued to have net inflows, while hot money and retail capital chose to exit [1]. This phenomenon of “smart money entering, follower money exiting” often occurs in the early stage of a rally or the middle stage of an uptrend. Combined with data showing that the company’s share pledge ratio is 17.18% and the number of shareholders increased by 987 from the previous period to 26,856 [5], the chips are undergoing a process from dispersion to concentration, which may provide certain support for the subsequent evolution of the market.

However, in terms of M&A dynamics, the company’s wholly-owned subsidiary plans to acquire a 12% stake in Liaoning Tiancai Materials for 16.8 million yuan [5]. This asset integration move is small in scale and has limited impact on the company’s overall value, so investors should maintain rational expectations.

Comprehensive assessment shows that

– the current stock price increase has fully reflected the positive news of photoresist mass production, and the risk of technical correction is high. Investors should take risk prevention and control as the primary goal. In the medium term, it is necessary to closely track the annual performance forecast and the progress of the photoresist business, with a time window of 1-4 weeks. Long-term opportunities require waiting for the actual contribution of the photoresist business to performance to be verified, with a time window of more than 1-6 months.

Qicai Chemistry’s current strong performance is driven by the resonance of three factors: mass production of the photoresist project, rebound of the semiconductor sector, and entry of main capital. The company’s entry into the photoresist track has solid technical accumulation and industry logic, which is in line with the strategic direction of domestic substitution, and its long-term growth potential is promising. However, the fundamental reality of a sharp decline in performance in 2025 forms an obvious divergence with the short-term skyrocketing stock price. The accumulated correction risk and regulatory attention pressure after consecutive limit-ups cannot be ignored.

Observing from the capital structure, the continuous net inflow of main capital shows that institutions have long-term attention to the company, but the signs of hot money exiting indicate that short-term game sentiment is heavy. Technically, the stock price is far from the annual line, and there is a need for a pullback confirmation.

: Changes in trading volume (guard against rapid shrinkage), main capital flow (whether net inflow continues), semiconductor sector sentiment, company annual report forecast and photoresist business progress, regulatory dynamics (whether there is a specific suspension). Investors should closely monitor changes in the above indicators and carefully evaluate the timing of participation.