In-Depth Analysis of the Driving Factors Behind NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto's Countertrend Rally

Based on obtained market data, financial indicators, and industry research reports, I provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis:

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Stock Ticker	Company Name	Latest Stock Price	Daily Change	52-Week Performance	Relative Strength Index
NIO	NIO	$4.62	+1.32%	+60.08%	32.0%
XPEV	XPeng	$20.89	+1.53%	+60.08%	49.8%
LI	Li Auto	$16.50	+1.82%	-24.57%	2.4%

Against the backdrop of a broad decline in most Chinese concept stocks, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto rose over 1% in a countertrend move, showing a clear divergent trend [0].

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The 2026 automotive industry will focus on two key themes: “large batteries” and “intelligent driving”, and NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto have differentiated competitive advantages in these two areas [1]:

• XPeng (XPEV)
  
  Since its establishment, XPeng has focused on the core technological route of “intelligent driving”. In 2025, it achieved sales of 429,400 vehicles, exceeding its target by 122.69% [1]. Its VLA (Visual Language Action) technology is industry-leading; the second-generation VLA was launched in November, and a full rollout for the Ultra version is expected in Q1 2026 [2].

• Li Auto (LI)
  
  The monthly usage rate of Li Auto’s assisted driving VLA has reached 91%, and intelligent driving functions have become a core decision-making factor for users when purchasing cars [2]. Research shows that a significant proportion of consumers would directly give up purchasing if the vehicle lacks assisted driving functions [2].

• NIO
  
  The first version of NIO’s World Model NWM was rolled out in batches in May 2025, and the 2.0 iteration of the World Model is expected to be launched from the end of 2025 to Q1 2026 [2].

All three automakers have released ambitious 2026 new vehicle plans, creating positive expectations for product iteration [1]:

Automaker	New Vehicle Plan	Core Highlights
NIO	ES9, ES7, Leda L80	Flagship SUV revival, flagship configurations including steer-by-wire and SkyDrive chassis
XPeng	G01 Full-Size SUV	First to be equipped with L4-level autonomous driving hardware, 800V architecture
Li Auto	LX, i9, Household Wagon	Full-size flagship SUV, pure electric flagship SUV, first sedan model

Existing product lines will also undergo major facelifts, including the adoption of a new-generation range extender, large batteries, and 5C ultra-fast charging technology [1].

Data from the used car market shows that leading new energy brands have demonstrated significant resilience against declines during periods of policy volatility [3]:

• Sales of models from major brands such as BYD, NIO, and Li Auto rose against the trend
• Nearly-new Li Auto L6 models only lose RMB 50,000-70,000 when resold after about one year, which is less than the losses of models in the same class
• NIO ES8 maintains competitiveness in the over-RMB 300,000 large 6-seat SUV market, with monthly sales of 2,052 units [2]

This residual value stability strengthens consumer confidence in leading brands, forming a positive cycle for new car sales [3].

The fundamentals of the three companies show significant divergence [0][4]:

Metric	NIO (NIO)	XPeng (XPEV)	Li Auto (LI)
P/E (TTM)	-2.80x	-32.65x	15.14x
Net Profit Margin	Loss	Loss	+3.63%
Current Ratio	-	1.12	1.80
ROE	-	-9.33%	+6.43%

Li Auto is the only profitable company among NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto, and its 15.14x PE valuation provides obvious valuation support in the new energy vehicle sector [4].

From a risk control perspective, Li Auto’s Beta coefficient is only 0.55, far lower than NIO’s 1.06 [0]. This means that when the overall market declines, Li Auto’s stock price is less sensitive to fluctuations, showing stronger defensive attributes.

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Data from the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that the industry is shifting from the “early majority” to the “late majority” stage, and users no longer simply seek novelty, but value brand credibility, after-sales support, and certainty of residual value [1][5]. This means:

• Stronger players grow stronger
  : Market resources accelerate to converge towards leading technology-focused players
• Weaker players exit
  : Used car prices of niche new energy brands have dropped by another 30% compared to before the policy was implemented, yet they still struggle to find buyers [3]
• Investment recommendation
  : Focus on leading brands with systematic competitive advantages

The penetration rate of urban NOA in new energy vehicles is expected to rise to 40% in 2026 [2][5]. The weight of intelligent driving in car purchase decisions has risen to the top, and consumers are more inclined to choose brands with leading intelligent driving technology [5].

: Focus on automakers that maintain technological advantages in intelligent driving, such as XPeng (core narrative of intelligent driving), Huawei ecosystem partners (Aito), etc. [5].

Competition in the current new energy vehicle industry is intensifying, and “how to sell profitably and sustainably” has become a core proposition [1]. Investment should prioritize:

• Companies that have achieved stable profitability (such as Li Auto)
• Companies with continuously improving gross profit margins and healthy cash flow
• Brands that can effectively control costs and improve operational efficiency

From January to November 2025, XPeng’s overseas deliveries reached 40,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 95% [2]. In 2026, overseas business will enter a stage of systematic operation:

• Following Indonesia and Austria, XPeng has launched its third localized production project in Malaysia [2]
• High profitability in overseas markets is expected to support intense domestic competition

: Automakers with overseas production layout and overseas expansion capabilities will gain opportunities for valuation restructuring.

2026 is a big year for new products from many domestic automakers, and hit new models have a significant pulling effect on sales [5]. Investors should pay attention to:

• Launch rhythm and pricing strategy of new vehicles
• Magnitude of product power improvement for facelifted models
• Changes in competitive landscape in segmented markets

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Investment Dimension	Recommended Strategy
Target Screening	Prioritize leading companies with technological barriers in intelligent driving, stable profitability, and clear product cycles
Risk Control	Pay attention to Beta coefficients and valuation safety margins; avoid overchasing high-volatility targets
Long-Term Logic	Pay attention to progress in overseas business and opportunities for valuation restructuring brought by new business expansions such as humanoid robots
Industry Allocation	The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50%, and the industry is shifting from incremental competition to stock game; more focus should be placed on individual stock Alpha mining

: Against the backdrop of declines in most Chinese concept stocks, the countertrend rally of NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto is not accidental, but the result of multiple factors including advantages in intelligent driving technology, expectations for product cycles, stability in used car residual values, and company fundamentals. This marks a shift in the investment logic for new energy vehicles from a “growth story” to “profit realization” and “competition based on technological barriers”. Investors should adapt to this structural change and focus on leading enterprises with long-term competitive advantages.

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[0] Jinling API - Real-Time Quotes and Financial Data for NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto

[1] Shenxuanche - “2026 New Vehicle Outlook: NIO Chases Profitability, XPeng Bets on Intelligent Driving, Li Auto Defends Range Extenders” (https://www.shenxuanche.com/news/797747)

[2] Eastmoney - “Domestic Sales Competition Intensifies, New Energy Exports Surge: 2026 Outlook” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202512311812066600_1.pdf)

[3] Sina Finance - “Field Investigation of the 2026 Opening Used Car Market: Sluggish Supply and Demand, Slight Increase in New Energy Sales” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-14/doc-inhhhnwt4016363.shtml)

[4] Jinling API - Company Profiles and Analyst Ratings for XPeng and Li Auto

[5] EET-China - “Top 10 Trends and Investment Strategies for the 2026 Automotive Industry” (https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a466583.html)