Analysis of Kema Technology (301611)'s Strong Performance: Overbought Risks and Long-Term Growth Logic Coexist

This analysis is based on the market event that Kema Technology (301611.SZ) entered the strong stock pool on January 15, 2026. As a leading domestic enterprise of advanced ceramic material components for semiconductor equipment, the company benefited from the wave of domestic substitution of semiconductors and the overall strength of the sector, closing up 12.09% today, with a cumulative increase of 109.16% in the past month [0]. Technical indicators show that the stock price has entered a severe overbought zone, with the KDJ indicator’s K-value reaching 86.9 and RSI in the high warning range. Although the fundamentals have long-term growth logic, the current valuation (P/E 178 times) has significantly overdrawn future expectations. Based on comprehensive judgment, there is short-term technical correction pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs, and investors can accumulate on dips in the medium term after valuation digestion.

The recent strong performance of Kema Technology is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors. First, the abnormal stock trading fluctuation announcement (released on January 8, 2026) triggered regulatory attention but instead aroused market curiosity. The company subsequently clarified that “operations are normal, and there are no major matters that should be disclosed but not disclosed” [1][2], eliminating concerns of some investors. Second, the overall strength of the semiconductor sector is an important external catalyst. Multiple large-cap leading stocks in the industry have hit record highs, and the release of new chips at CES 2026, progress in 2nm process technology, and the surge in ASML and other lithography machine concept stocks have all boosted the popularity of the equipment sector [3][4].

More importantly, the company’s fundamentals have shown positive changes. On January 9, 2026, many well-known institutions including CITIC Construction Investment Securities, Yinhua Fund, Southern Fund, and Fullgoal Fund conducted on-site research on the company [5]. The research released multiple positive signals: the convertible bond project has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with a focus on building electrostatic chuck production lines and expanding ceramic heater production capacity; the advanced material production base is gradually put into operation, significantly increasing ceramic heater production capacity; products have been supplied to leading equipment manufacturers such as NAURA, AMEC, and Toking Technology in batches. The company acquired Suzhou Kaixin Semiconductor in July 2025, improving its layout in the silicon carbide ceramic field [5].

In terms of price performance, Kema Technology shows a typical strong breakout pattern. A daily increase of +12.09% indicates strong short-term momentum, a 5-day increase of +17.35% indicates a continuation of the upward trend, while a 1-month increase of 109.16% and a 3-month increase of 128.69% reveal that the stock price has entered a surge phase [0]. The current price of 134.95 yuan is close to the 52-week high of 138.66 yuan, facing a test of important resistance levels technically.

Trading volume data further verifies high capital attention. Today’s trading volume of 21.42 million lots is twice the average trading volume of 10.73 million lots, with a turnover rate as high as 14.61% and a transaction value of 2.71 billion yuan, showing fierce competition among large capitals [0]. The main capital has been in a net inflow state in the past 5 days, coupled with heavy positions added by leveraged funds [7][8], reflecting that institutional investors’ attention to the company is increasing.

Technical indicators show that the stock price has entered the overbought zone, and investors need to be alert to correction risks. Regarding the KDJ indicator, the K-value is 86.9, D-value is 85.4, and J-value is 89.8. All three are in the overbought zone, and the J-value has a high risk of peaking and falling [0]. The RSI indicator also shows overbought risks. The moving average system presents a long arrangement pattern, with the price far above the 20-day moving average (94.33 yuan), 50-day moving average (70.45 yuan), and 200-day moving average (58.82 yuan), indicating a clear medium- and long-term upward trend [0].

From the perspective of price analysis, 138.66 yuan is a strong resistance level, and a breakout with volume is needed to open up upward space; 110.78 yuan is the first support level; the 20-day moving average (94.33 yuan) is a key level for trend reversal. The beta coefficient is only 0.72, indicating that the stock’s volatility is lower than the market average, which reduces systemic risk to a certain extent [0].

The company has a clear positioning as a leading domestic enterprise of advanced ceramic material components for semiconductor equipment, with advanced ceramic material components accounting for 82.63% of its revenue in 2023 [9]. Core products include ceramic heaters (already supplied to NAURA, AMEC, Toking Technology, etc. in batches), electrostatic chucks (verified and in small-scale mass production), and ultra-high-purity silicon carbide kits (gradually entering mass production) [5].

In terms of financial data, the 2024 revenue was 857 million yuan, and net profit was 311 million yuan. The 2025 revenue is expected to be 1.11 billion yuan, with a net profit of 349 million yuan, and the 2026 revenue is expected to reach 1.502 billion yuan, with a net profit of 547 million yuan [0][10]. The gross profit margin remains at a high level (about 55%-59%), reflecting the strong technical barriers and pricing power of the products.

However, valuation risks cannot be ignored. The current P/E (TTM) is as high as 178 times, and P/B is 34 times, far exceeding the industry average. Even based on the 2026 expected profit, the PE is still 40 times, and the stock price has overdrawn much of the future growth expectations [0]. In addition, the 2025 Q3 financial report shows that the revenue was 274 million yuan (YoY +18.10%) but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 73 million yuan (YoY -16.16%), and Q3 EPS was 22.73% lower than expected [0], slowing performance growth has aroused market concerns.

From an industry perspective, the track where Kema Technology is located has broad growth space. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the global market size of advanced structural ceramics for pan-semiconductors is expected to reach 42.3 billion yuan in 2026, and the Chinese market is about 12.5 billion yuan. The localization rate of advanced structural ceramic components for domestic semiconductor equipment was only 19% in 2021, leaving broad space for domestic substitution [9]. As one of the few enterprises mastering the preparation technology of key semiconductor equipment components such as ceramic heaters and electrostatic chucks, the company will significantly benefit from this structural opportunity.

There is an obvious long-short game in the current market.

includes: continuous release of policy dividends for domestic substitution, upward cycle of the semiconductor industry, successful entry of the company’s products into the supply chain of leading clients, and potential capital attention indicated by institutional research. includes: excessive short-term increase (109% in 1 month), overvaluation (PE 178 times), Q3 financial report falling short of expectations, and existence of employee strategic placement reduction plan (planned reduction of no more than 0.3528%) [0].

It is worth noting that the abnormal stock fluctuation announcement itself is a neutral-to-bearish factor (regulatory attention), but from the market reaction, this announcement has instead become a catalyst to attract more investor attention, showing the market’s extreme optimism towards semiconductor sector stocks.

A joint research was conducted by many well-known institutions on January 9, 2026 (including CITIC Construction Investment Securities, Yinhua Fund, Southern Fund, Fullgoal Fund, etc.) [5]. This event has important signal significance. The research focused on the progress of the convertible bond project, capacity preparation, product introduction, and M&A integration, showing that institutional investors have a high degree of attention to the company’s medium- and long-term development. Combined with the recent net inflow of main capital and leveraged capital increasing positions [7][8], the continuous inflow of institutional capital will form certain support for the stock price.

Ceramic heater products have been supplied to leading equipment manufacturers such as NAURA, AMEC, and Toking Technology in batches [5][6]. With the growth of demand from domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers, this product is expected to accelerate volume expansion in 2026 and become an important performance growth driver. The electrostatic chuck product is in the verification and small-scale mass production stage. If it can be successfully introduced to more clients, it will further open up the company’s growth space. After the approval of the convertible bond financing project (electrostatic chuck production line and ceramic heater capacity expansion), the capacity bottleneck will be effectively alleviated [5].

: The current PE (TTM) of 178 times is significantly overvalued. Even based on 2026 expected profits, the PE is still 40 times, and the stock price has deviated significantly from the reasonable valuation range [0]. Investors need to be alert to the risk of valuation regression.

: With a 1-month increase of 109%, and RSI and KDJ in the overbought zone, the risk of technical correction is high. Historical experience shows that sharp short-term increases are often followed by severe adjustments.

: The 22.73% miss in Q3 EPS indicates that the company’s performance growth rate may be lower than market expectations, and investors need to pay attention to the performance of subsequent financial reports.

: The employee strategic placement asset management plan plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.3528% [0]. Although the proportion is small, it may amplify market volatility at the current high level.

: The cycle from R&D to terminal application of advanced ceramic materials is long and requires large investment, and there is a risk of R&D failure or lower-than-expected market promotion [10].

: Some advanced ceramic powders rely on imports from Japan and Europe, and changes in import and export policies may affect supply chain security [10].

: The localization rate of advanced structural ceramic components for domestic semiconductor equipment is only 19% [9]. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, the company is expected to continuously gain market share.

: The successful entry into the supply chain of leading equipment manufacturers such as NAURA, AMEC, and Toking Technology verifies the product competitiveness and customer recognition [5][6].

: After the approval of the convertible bond project, the production capacity of electrostatic chucks and ceramic heaters will be significantly increased, supporting sustained performance growth.

: Research by multiple institutions shows that professional investors recognize the company’s medium- and long-term value, which may bring incremental capital.

: The risk of technical correction is high, and it is not recommended to chase highs. The 109% increase in one month is unsustainable, and the overbought signals from RSI and KDJ are strong [0].

: If it can effectively consolidate and digest the gains, and obtain support in the 110-120 yuan range, it is still expected to rise along with the semiconductor sector’s market. The progress of the convertible bond project and the mass production of electrostatic chucks will be important catalysts.

: The semiconductor equipment ceramic component track where the company is located has broad space for domestic substitution and has long-term growth logic, but the current valuation has overdrawn 2-3 years of future growth. It is recommended to wait for a more reasonable entry opportunity.

Kema Technology (301611.SZ), as a leading domestic manufacturer of advanced ceramic material components for semiconductor equipment, entered the strong stock pool today due to the combined effect of the overall strength of the semiconductor sector, positive changes in the company’s fundamentals, and increased capital attention. The company’s core product, ceramic heaters, has been supplied to leading clients such as NAURA, AMEC, and Toking Technology in batches, and the progress of the convertible bond project and capacity expansion will provide support for medium- and long-term development. However, the current stock price has entered a severe overbought zone, and the PE valuation of 178 times has significantly overdrawn future expectations. The Q3 performance falling short of expectations also reflects that the pace of fundamental improvement may be weaker than market expectations. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance level of 138.66 yuan and the support level of 110.78 yuan. Fundamentally, continue to track the progress of the convertible bond project, product introduction, and performance realization capabilities.

: This report is based on public information analysis and does not constitute investment advice. The stock price has increased sharply in the short term, and the risk of technical correction is high. Investors should make cautious decisions based on their own risk tolerance.