Analysis of Jinsheng New Materials (300849): Risks and Opportunities of Capital-Driven Rally

Jinsheng New Materials (300849) has strongly entered the list of hot stocks today, with a daily gain of 13.17% and trading volume of 11.7 million shares, exceeding 3 times the average. According to statistics from Data Treasure of Securities Times, the stock ranks first in the list of consecutive net inflows of main capital, having achieved net inflow of main capital for 11 consecutive trading days, with a net inflow of RMB 39 million in the past 5 days, accounting for 10.31% of the total turnover[1][2]. This sustained capital inflow is the core driver of the stock price breakout.

From the perspective of capital structure, data from the last trading day before the breakout (January 14) shows that main capital had a net inflow of RMB 750,800 (led by large single buy orders), retail capital had a simultaneous net inflow of RMB 3.5176 million, while hot money had a net outflow of RMB 4.2684 million, presenting a typical pattern of “main capital building positions, retail following up, hot money washing positions”[1]. This healthy capital structure indicates that the rally is driven by genuine buying demand rather than pure speculative hype.

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Today, the stock price gapped up from RMB 16.05 and continued to rise, hitting a high of RMB 18.87, close to the 52-week high of RMB 19.19. Looking at performance across various periods, it has a 5-day gain of 15.14%, 1-month gain of 11.93%, 3-month gain of 35.29%, and 6-month gain of 48.43%, showing an obvious medium-term uptrend[0].

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The KDJ indicator shows a K value of 70.3, D value of 59.4, and J value of 92.2; a J value exceeding 90 indicates short-term overbought conditions; MACD remains in a bullish pattern with no death cross signal; RSI is in the overbought zone, indicating short-term adjustment needs[0]. The trend score is 5.0 out of 10, suggesting the uptrend remains to be confirmed.

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Resistance levels are at RMB 18.87 (today’s high) and RMB 19.19 (52-week high), support level is at RMB 16.25, and the next technical target is RMB 19.56. The beta coefficient is only 0.4, indicating low correlation with the broader market and relatively independent price movement[0].

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In Q3 2025, the company’s net profit attributable to parent shareholders was -RMB 675,300, a year-on-year decrease of 316.77%; its revenue in the first three quarters decreased by 8.41% year-on-year, earnings per share was -RMB 0.22, and ROE was -5.56%[0]. From a traditional fundamental perspective, the company is in a loss-making state, with profitability under pressure.

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The asset-liability ratio is only 15.99%, current ratio is 2.89, indicating strong short-term solvency; free cash flow is RMB 12.82 million, with acceptable cash flow status[0]. DCF valuation shows that in the neutral scenario, the per-share value is RMB 22.66, implying a 22.6% upside potential compared to the current price; the probability-weighted valuation reaches RMB 25.96, implying a 40.5% upside potential[0].

This pattern of “fundamental pressure but capital-driven rally” is the main feature of the current market. As a leading player in the cosmetic packaging container segment, the company’s low asset-liability ratio and stable cash flow provide a certain margin of safety.

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1. Fundamental Risk
   : Sustained losses, declining revenue, and no signs of fundamental improvement yet
2. Valuation Risk
   : P/B ratio is as high as 4.7x, which is elevated; P/E ratio is invalid due to loss-making status
3. Technical Overbought Risk
   : Both RSI and KDJ indicate short-term overbought conditions, with pressure for technical correction
4. Short-term Profit-Taking Risk
   : The single-day gain is too large, and some profitable positions may be closed out

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1. Sustainability of Capital Inflow: If main capital can maintain net inflow, the stock price is expected to challenge the 52-week high
2. Valuation Repair Potential: The neutral valuation of RMB 22.66 provides a medium-term target reference
3. Independent Movement Feature: Low beta offers defensiveness, with relatively stable performance amid broader market fluctuations
4. Healthy Volume-Price Coordination: If the breakout pattern of rising price with increasing volume can be sustained, the uptrend is expected to continue

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If the stock price can hold above the resistance level of RMB 18.87, it is expected to challenge the range of RMB 19.19-19.56; if it pulls back to the RMB 17-18 range and stabilizes, it may accumulate momentum for another upward move; if it breaks below the support level of RMB 16.25, investors need to be cautious of false breakout risks.

The strong performance of Jinsheng New Materials reveals the typical characteristics of “capital-driven” market trends in the A-share market. Without fundamental improvement, the continuous net inflow of main capital for 11 consecutive days is the key factor driving the stock price breakout, reflecting the market’s recognition of the company’s leading position in the cosmetic packaging container segment, as well as its emphasis on the financial margin of safety brought by low asset-liability ratio.

Notably, the stock’s beta coefficient is only 0.4; while it surged 13.17% against the trend today, the consumer goods recycling sector fell 1.06% overall[0], showing its obvious independent movement feature. This low correlation with the broader market and its sector may give the stock certain risk diversification value in asset allocation.

However, investors need to clearly recognize that the current rally is mainly driven by capital factors rather than fundamental improvement. Short-term overbought conditions indicated by technical indicators, valuation deviation from conservative scenarios, and the fact of sustained losses all constitute risk factors that need to be watched. The sustainability of capital inflow will be the core variable determining whether the trend can continue.

The core driver of the strong performance of Jinsheng New Materials (300849) today is the continuous net inflow of main capital for 11 consecutive days, with a net inflow of RMB 39 million in the past 5 days. The stock price shows a breakout pattern with coordinated volume and price, with a daily gain of 13.17% and closing price of RMB 18.48, close to the 52-week high of RMB 19.19. Technically, the overall trend is bullish but short-term overbought, with KDJ and RSI indicating adjustment needs. Fundamentally, there is a divergence: the company is loss-making but has positive cash flow, low asset-liability ratio, and a margin of safety. The neutral DCF valuation of RMB 22.66 implies a 22.6% upside potential. Investors need to be cautious of short-term technical correction risks, and the medium-term trend depends on the sustainability of capital inflow and signs of fundamental improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough of the RMB 18.87 resistance level and the support at RMB 16.25.