Mizuho Securities' Outperform Rating for Airbnb: 2026 Top Pick

Mizuho Securities has maintained its

on Airbnb (ABNB) and designated it as one of its among U.S. internet stocks. This represents Mizuho’s most out-of-consensus overweight rating in the online travel sector, indicating significant conviction in the company’s growth trajectory [1].

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Mizuho anticipates a significant acceleration in room night growth through 2026, driven by three key factors:

• Increased Hotel Supply Additions
  : Airbnb’s strategic expansion into hotel inventory is expected to unlock incremental demand, particularly in markets with tight short-term rental supply [1][2]
• Expansion of Book-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) Options
  : The introduction of Reserve Now, Pay Later functionality is projected to reduce friction in the booking process and improve conversion rates [1][2]
• Easier Comparisons in the U.S. Market
  : Enhanced pricing transparency and comparison tools are expected to improve consumer decision-making and drive booking volume [1]

Barclays, which recently upgraded Airbnb to Equal Weight from Underweight, forecasts room night growth of

—significantly ahead of the current consensus of approximately 7.5% [2].

Mizuho analysts identify Airbnb’s upcoming AI products as a potential major upside catalyst. The firm believes Airbnb has

, citing the company’s product-focused leadership as a competitive advantage [1].

This view is supported by the broader analyst community. B.Riley and RBC Capital have also upgraded Airbnb’s ratings, citing

as a key factor [1]. Bernstein analysts noted that while AI questions will dominate the online travel sector narrative in 2026, Airbnb’s product-focused approach positions it well [3].

The 2026 North American World Cup is expected to provide a

, with analysts estimating a 10 to 20 basis point benefit to room night growth that year [2].

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Analysts project strong financial performance through 2026:

Metric	Projection
Operating Income Growth	15% YoY, reaching approximately $3 billion [3]
Room Night Growth	9%+ in 2026 (above 7.5% consensus) [2]
Margin Improvement	Expected to expand as growth investments moderate [3]

Bernstein noted that 2026 appears to be a rare exception year where the outlook is less focused on recession risk, with expectations for a strong travel environment supported by stable U.S./China markets, limited supply supporting pricing, and a strong event calendar [3].

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As of January 15, 2026, Airbnb’s stock trades at

with the following key metrics [4]:

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$82.13 billion
P/E Ratio	31.62x
52-Week Range	$99.88 - $163.93
EPS (TTM)	$4.20

Wall Street analysts maintain a

with an average price target of , representing potential upside from current levels [5].

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Multiple investment firms have recently upgraded Airbnb, corroborating Mizuho’s constructive outlook:

• Wells Fargo
  : Upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight (PT: $118 → $128), citing two years of share underperformance combined with a portfolio of upside options including hotel supply and sponsored listings opportunities [6]
• Barclays
  : Upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight (PT: $107 → $120), highlighting RNPL, hotel expansion, and World Cup tailwinds [2][6]
• Bernstein
  : Maintains Outperform rating (PT: $162), emphasizing improving travel fundamentals [3]

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Mizuho’s Outperform rating and top pick designation for Airbnb through 2026 is supported by a confluence of factors: expected reacceleration in room night growth, innovative product initiatives (BNPL, AI), strategic hotel inventory expansion, and favorable macro tailwinds including the 2026 World Cup. The firm’s out-of-consensus stance reflects confidence in Airbnb’s ability to deliver sector-leading growth while leveraging its strong brand and product capabilities in an evolving travel landscape.

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[1] Investing.com - “Best US Internet Stocks for 2026: Mizuho’s 4 Top Picks” (https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/best-us-internet-stocks-for-2026-mizuhos-4-top-picks-93CH-4445054)

[2] Investing.com - “RNPL, hotel push and World Cup to boost Airbnb, Barclays upgrades stock” (https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/rnpl-hotel-push-and-world-cup-to-boost-airbnb-barclays-upgrades-stock-4439602)

[3] Intellectia.AI - “Airbnb Projects 15% Operating Income Growth for 2026” (https://intellectia.ai/news/stock/airbnb-projects-15-operating-income-growth-for-2026-amidst-market-expansion)

[4] Real-time quote data from financial API

[5] Public.com - “Airbnb (ABNB) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions” (https://public.com/stocks/abnb/forecast-price-target)

[6] Yahoo Finance - “Airbnb upgraded, Zillow downgraded: Wall Street’s top analyst calls” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbnb-upgraded-zillow-downgraded-wall-144754327.html)