Evaluation Report on the Impact of Record-High Bank Wealth Management Scale and the 'True Net Value Era' on Bank Stock Investment Value and Deposit Diversion

Based on the latest market data and industry research materials, I have prepared this in-depth analysis report on the record-high scale of bank wealth management and the “True Net Value Era” for you.

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As of November 2025, the outstanding scale of bank wealth management in the entire market reached

, an increase of more than RMB 4 trillion from the beginning of the year, hitting a record high [1]. This marks that the bank wealth management industry has fully recovered from the 2022 redemption wave and entered a new expansion cycle.

Month	Wealth Management Scale (Trillion RMB)	Month-on-Month Change
Jan	29.41	+0.17
Apr	30.63	+2.20
Jul	31.96	+2.00
Oct	33.63	+1.50
Nov	34.00	+0.35

The scale of 14 trillion-level wealth management companies increased by nearly RMB 3 trillion from the beginning of the year, and the industry-wide scale reached a peak of RMB 34 trillion in November 2025 [2].

The current deposit market has entered the “1% Era”, with the 3-month large-denomination certificate of deposit rate of some small and medium-sized banks falling below 1% for the first time [3]. In 2025, the average decline of retail deposits across all tenors was about 30 basis points. Meanwhile, the scale of residents’ demand deposits, bank wealth management, and non-monetary funds grew at an accelerated pace [4].

The scale of matured time deposits in 2026 will be approximately RMB 57 trillion, mainly concentrated in the early part of the year [5]. As the previous high-interest rate time deposits mature one after another, the interest rate for new deposits has dropped significantly, driving the acceleration of “deposit migration”.

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As the net value rectification period for the wealth management industry expired in 2025,

[2]. This means that:

• Net value fluctuations of products will be more genuine and significant
• Complete farewell to “pseudo net value” and “capital pool” models
• Investment strategies tend to focus on low-volatility, high-liquidity asset allocation

Product Type	Proportion of Outstanding Scale	Change from Beginning of Year
Fixed-Income Products	76.56%	+RMB 1.64 trillion
Cash Management Products	20.85%	-RMB 240 billion
Mixed Products	2.44%	+RMB 300 billion
Equity Products	0.15%	Marginal growth

Fixed-income products remain the absolute main force, but mixed wealth management products reversed their years of contraction and saw significant growth in 2025 [2].

Risk Level	Yield of 6-12 Month Products	Yield of Products with Tenor Over 3 Years
R1 (Low Risk)	1.13%	2.44%
R2 (Medium-Low Risk)	1.39%	2.06%
R3 (Medium Risk)	2.24%	3.84%

: Investors need to shift from “depositor mindset” to “investor mindset” and accept that net value fluctuations ≠ principal loss [6]. Long-term holding helps to smooth out fluctuations, and there is no need to panic about short-term net value retracement.

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In 2025, the total market value of the A-share bank sector exceeded

, an increase of approximately RMB 2.1 trillion compared to the end of 2024 [7]. The CSI Bank Index rose for the whole year, showing a pattern of “giants dancing”:

Bank	2025 Growth Rate	Highlights
Agricultural Bank of China	51.86%	Led the market
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China	21.02%	A-share market value of RMB 2.14 trillion
China Construction Bank	15.5%	Stable performance
Bank of China	12.8%	Valuation recovery

Despite the impressive growth in 2025, bank stocks still trade below book value on a large scale:

Bank	Price-to-Book Ratio (PB)
China Merchants Bank	0.98
Agricultural Bank of China	0.97
China Construction Bank	0.85
Bank of China	0.78
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China	0.75
Industry Median	<0.6

: The current industry median PB is about 0.65x, and if it recovers to 1x PB, there is still [8].

• Against the backdrop of asset scarcity, the high-dividend feature of bank stocks is highly attractive to long-term capital such as insurance funds and social security funds
• Banks have strong profit stability, high certainty of dividend payout ratio, and guaranteed sustainability of dividends [9]

• Resolution of local government debt risks and special treasury bond injections into state-owned large banks
• Optimization of financial supervision guides medium- and long-term capital to flow into the bank sector
• Reduction of risk factors for insurance companies’ stock investments

• Net interest margin is expected to stabilize and stop falling in 2026
• Asset quality remains stable, and risk indicators have shown signs of stabilization
• The pressure of credit cost for retail loans has been marginally relieved

Investor Type	Allocation Suggestions
Conservative	Take state-owned large banks as core positions to lock in stable dividend income
Aggressive	Select high-quality regional banks to seize structural opportunities
Balanced	“Core + Elasticity” allocation: State-owned large banks + regional leaders + retail transformation benchmarks

:

1. State-owned large banks: Strong “certainty”, continuously favored by capital
2. Regional leading banks: Excellent asset quality, net interest margin is expected to stabilize first
3. Retail transformation benchmarks: Outstanding wealth management capabilities, high certainty of growth in intermediate business income

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Calculation Dimension	Scale (Trillion RMB)	Explanation
Annual Matured Deposits	57	Estimated based on data of the six major banks
Long-Term Matured Deposits	59-71	Tenors of 2 years and above
Conservative Scenario Diversion	2	Shift to wealth management and other asset management products
Neutral Scenario Diversion	3	Inflow of activated funds
Optimistic Scenario Diversion	4	Rising risk appetite

CICC estimates that an additional

of activated funds may flow into non-time deposit investment areas in 2026 [4].

• Deposit interest rates have entered the “1% Era”, and wealth management products have obvious yield advantages
• The average yield of wealth management products in 2025 was
  2.65%
  , generating RMB 709.9 billion in income for investors [9]

• Many bank account managers reported that the risk appetite of ordinary customers has increased significantly compared to before
• Bank wealth management has become a “conservative” category for some customers, and some customers also allocate equity funds

• “Fixed Income+” products outperformed pure fixed-income products
• The recovery of the equity market increased the overall attractiveness of wealth management products

• The overall net interest margin of commercial banks has dropped to
  1.42%
  (Q3 2025)
• The net interest margin of large banks is only
  1.31%
• The trend of deposit termization (accounting for 73.48%) increases liability costs

• Wealth management business has become an important carrier for banks to rebuild their “balance sheet” off-balance sheet
• Linked development of FPA (Financing Portfolio Aggregate) and AUM (Assets Under Management)
• It is expected that the growth of wealth management scale will be significantly faster than that of on-balance sheet assets [10]

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Scenario	Growth Rate	Scale (Trillion RMB)	Key Assumptions
Conservative	8%	36.7	Bond market volatility, high pressure from net value fluctuations
Neutral	10%	37.4	Deposit migration trend continues
Optimistic	11-12%	37.4-38.1	Bond market stabilizes and improves, risk appetite increases

• Potential fluctuations of products will gradually increase in 2026
• Wealth management products need to effectively meet investors’ demand for stable value appreciation and reduce expectation gaps

• The 10-year treasury bond yield to maturity touched 1.60% multiple times in 2025
• Institutions predict that the bond market will remain volatile in 2026

• Small and medium-sized banks face greater pressure of deposit outflows
• Rural commercial banks have a higher proportion of long-term time deposits and will be hit harder

Category	Targets	Rationale
Core Allocation	Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China	Large valuation recovery space, high dividend, stability
Elastic Allocation	China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo	Leading retail transformation, wealth management advantages
Regional Leaders	Bank of Chengdu, Bank of Hangzhou, Bank of Nanjing	Booming regional economy, high performance elasticity

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1. Record-high bank wealth management scale
   is an inevitable result of the transformation of residents’ wealth allocation structure. The peak of RMB 34 trillion is only a medium-term target, and it is expected to exceed RMB 37 trillion in 2026.

2. The

   “True Net Value Era”
   puts forward higher requirements for investor education and product management, but it does not change the core positioning of bank wealth management as a deposit substitute.

3. Bank stock investment value
   remains attractive, and the valuation recovery market is expected to continue, with the core logic shifting from general rise to deepening and differentiation.

4. Deposit diversion
   will continue but is controllable. The diversion scale is expected to reach RMB 2-4 trillion in 2026, which will put pressure on banks’ profits but also bring opportunities for wealth management business.

:

• Position Suggestion
  : The allocation ratio of bank stocks can be increased to 15-20% of the portfolio
• Core Targets
  : State-owned large banks (ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB) + high-quality joint-stock banks (China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank)
• Entry Timing
  : Use phased retracements to build positions in batches, and hold for the long term to obtain dual returns from dividends + capital gains

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[1] China Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center - 2024 Annual Report on China’s Banking Wealth Management Market (https://www.chinawealth.com.cn)

[2] Securities Times - “Bank Wealth Management Scale Hits Record High, Net Value Volatility Cannot Stop Inflow of Incremental Capital” (https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8pvSbqfT6vp)

[3] China Fund News - “3-Month Large-Denomination Certificate of Deposit Rate of Some Small and Medium-Sized Banks Falls Below 1% for the First Time” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3584812.html)

[4] CICC Research Department - “2026 Bank Wealth Management Market Outlook” (https://www.cicc.com)

[5] Huxiu - “Caged Tiger: Time Deposits Face Maturity Wave” (https://www.huxiu.com/article/4824779.html)

[6] Sina Finance - “Since You Bought Bank Wealth Management, Abandon Your ‘Depositor Mindset’” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-29/doc-inheniaf7890685.shtml)

[7] Yicai Global - “After Market Value Rises Another 2 Trillion, Is There Still a Bull Market for Bank Stocks?” (https://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/m/01-05/652659.shtml)

[8] CITIC Securities - “2026 Banking Industry Investment Strategy Report” (https://www.citics.com)

[9] China Economic Net - “Bank Wealth Management Investment Steadily Increases” (http://paper.ce.cn/pc/attachment/202501/24/f025a916-c354-4f7f-8b73-ecef2d2f4412.pdf)

[10] Sina Finance - “Bank Wealth Management Net Value Transformation May Rely on Entrusted Investment Model” (https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/1741543435/67cdd80b02701cf94)

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1. Bank Wealth Management Market Scale Change Chart
   : Shows the trend of bank wealth management scale growing from RMB 29.41 trillion to RMB 34 trillion in 2025, hitting a record high
2. Bank Stock Growth Rate Ranking Chart
   : Agricultural Bank of China led with a 51.8% growth rate, and state-owned large banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank performed outstandingly
3. Deposit Diversion Trend Chart
   : It is expected that the scale of residents’ deposits diverted to wealth management and other asset management products will reach RMB 2-4 trillion in 2026
4. Net Interest Margin and Deposit Interest Rate Trend Chart
   : The net interest margin of commercial banks continued to decline to 1.42%, and deposit interest rates entered the “1% Era”
5. Bank Stock Valuation Recovery Space Chart
   : The current industry median PB is about 0.65x, and there is still about 50% upside potential if it recovers to 1x PB
6. 2026 Wealth Management Scale Forecast Chart
   : Under the neutral scenario, the wealth management scale is expected to reach RMB 37.4 trillion, an increase of about 10% compared to 2025

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Report Generation Date: January 15, 2026
Data Sources: Jinling API Financial Database, China Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center, Brokerage Research Reports