In-Depth Analysis of the HK$8.3 Billion Strategic Cross-Shareholding Between SF Holding and J&T Express

Based on the latest information obtained, I have prepared this in-depth analysis report on the strategic cooperation between SF Holding and J&T Express.

---

On January 15, 2026, SF Holding and J&T Express announced the conclusion of a

strategic cross-shareholding agreement[1][2]:

Transaction Direction	Number of Shares	Issue Price	Transaction Amount
SF → J&T	226 million H-shares	HK$36.74 per share	Approximately HK$8.3 billion
J&T → SF	822 million Class B shares	HK$10.10 per share	Approximately HK$8.3 billion

• SF Holding will hold 10% of J&T Express’s shares
• J&T Express will hold 4.29% of SF Holding’s shares

---

The core concept of this cooperation is

[1][2]. The two companies have highly complementary business layouts:

• Dominant Position in Time-Sensitive Express Market
  : Based on 2022 revenue, SF Holding holds a
  63.5%
  market share in the time-sensitive express market[3]
• Air Logistics Capabilities
  : Owns 110 full-cargo aircraft (including 89 self-owned), with over 16,000 charter flight routes[3]
• Directly Operated Network
  : Has over 36,000 self-operated outlets and 221 transit hubs[3]
• Brand Premium
  : Positioned in the mid-to-high-end market, with a single-parcel revenue of approximately RMB13-14

• Dominant Position in Southeast Asian Market
  : Profit contribution from Southeast Asian business far exceeds that from the Chinese market[4]
• Cost Advantage
  : Regional agency model enables asset-light operations, with continuous decline in single-parcel costs[4]
• First-Mover Advantage in Emerging Markets
  : Established leading positions in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America[4]
• Parcel volume reached 30.1287 billion pieces in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.2%
  [5]

Synergy Dimension	Pre-Synergy Score	Post-Synergy Score	Growth Rate
Cross-Border Logistics Capability	75	92	+22.7%
Domestic Network Coverage	90	95	+5.6%
Cost Sharing Efficiency	70	88	+25.7%
Technology Sharing	80	90	+12.5%
Brand Value	85	93	+9.4%

1. Complementary Network Coverage
   : SF’s directly operated high-end network and J&T’s regional agency sinking network form complementary coverage
2. Cross-Border Logistics Synergy
   : J&T’s Southeast Asian advantages + SF’s air logistics capabilities = end-to-end cross-border logistics solutions
3. Cost Synergy
   : Superimposed scale effects reduce single-parcel costs
4. Technology Sharing
   : SF’s smart logistics technology is exported to J&T

To truly achieve 1+1>2, the following key points need to be focused on:

• Integration Depth
  : Conversion efficiency from capital cooperation to business synergy
• Cultural Integration
  : Integration of management cultures of two different business models (direct operation vs agency)
• Customer Migration
  : Whether effective sharing of customer resources can be achieved
• Competition Boundary
  : Whether new competitive barriers will be formed

---

According to the latest data[6], the domestic express market presents a pattern of

:

Enterprise	Market Share	Year-on-Year Change
ZTO Express	18.9%	Leading
J&T Express	16.3%	Rapid growth
YTO Express	15.0%	Stable
Yunda Express	13.5%	Stable
STO Express	12.9%	Stable
SF Holding	10.2%	Relatively stable

1. Redefinition of Competition Boundaries
   : SF and J&T shift from competition to cooperation, reducing direct confrontation
2. Pressure on ZTO, YTO, etc.
   : Integration of leading enterprises accelerates, narrowing the living space for second-tier enterprises
3. Restructuring of Cross-Border Logistics Pattern
   : Formation of a cross-border logistics consortium consisting of SF (domestic) + J&T (Southeast Asia)

1. Increased Market Concentration
   : Integration of leading enterprises accelerates, with CR5 likely to rise from the current 86% to over 90%
2. Competition Shifts from Price to Value
   : Guided by the regulatory authorities’ “anti-involution” policies[6], the industry shifts from price wars to service wars
3. Intensified International Competition
   : Chinese express enterprises shift from domestic competition to global competition

Enterprise Type	Impact Analysis	Response Strategies
ZTO, YTO, Yunda, STO	Face pressure from leading enterprise integration	Differentiated competition, efficiency improvement
JD Logistics	Face cross-border logistics challenges	Strengthen warehouse-distribution integration advantages
Deppon Logistics	Moderate pressure	Focus on the bulky goods logistics niche market
Small and Medium-Sized Express Enterprises	Living space narrows	Merge and exit or focus on niche markets

---

According to the latest financial analysis[7]:

• Financial Stance
  : Neutral, with prudent accounting treatment
• Free Cash Flow
  : RMB22.842 billion (2024)
• Debt Risk
  : Medium risk
• ROE
  : 11.44%, Net Profit Margin: 3.59%

Indicator	SF (A-Shares)	J&T (H-Shares)
Market Capitalization	RMB184.98 billion	Approximately HK$83 billion
P/E Ratio	17.86x	16x (2025E)
Transaction Premium	-	At HK$36.74 per share

The share swap price is relatively reasonable, reflecting the recognition of each other’s value by both parties.

---

1. Industry Bottoming Signal
   : Leading enterprises shift from price wars to cooperation, marking the industry’s entry into the mature stage
2. Valuation Restructuring
   : Cooperation between SF and J&T may drive revaluation of the express sector
3. Focus on Leading Enterprise Integration
   : Mergers and acquisitions in the express industry will accelerate in the future

Risk Type	Details
Integration Risk	Business synergies fall short of expectations, capital cooperation becomes a mere formality
Policy Risk	Anti-monopoly review, cross-border data regulation, etc.
Market Risk	Slowdown in e-commerce express demand, recurrence of price wars
Execution Risk	Management changes, cultural conflicts, etc.

---

• The businesses of the two parties are highly complementary, with large synergy space
• Capital binding helps promote deepening of business cooperation
• Dividends from cross-border e-commerce development provide growth space for cooperation

• Difficulty in integrating the two modes of direct operation and agency
• Implementation of specific cooperation projects
• Possibility of recurrence of industry price competition

: Industry competition intensity eases somewhat, leading to increased concentration of leading enterprises
: Formation of a duopoly pattern of “SF+J&T” and “ZTO System”, with international competition becoming the main battlefield

This cooperation marks an important turning point for China’s express industry from

to , and is also a concrete action in response to the “anti-involution” policy orientation of the State Post Bureau[6]. If the cooperation is successful, it will provide a new paradigm for the high-quality development of the industry.

---

[1] Sina Finance - J&T Express and SF Holding Announce Strategic Cross-Shareholding, with Investment Transaction Amount of HK$8.3 Billion (https://finance.sina.com.cn/tob/2026-01-15/doc-inhhiusf6572036.shtml)

[2] Sina Finance - J&T Express-W Proposes to Subscribe for 226 Million H-Shares of SF Holding and Issue 822 Million Class B Shares to SF Holding (https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/5835524730/15bd30a7a0200231x6)

[3] Minsheng Securities - In-Depth Report on SF Holding: Follow the Trend, Build the Foundation of Long-Termism Value (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202507091705968291_1.pdf)

[4] 36Kr - How Resilient is J&T Express? (https://m.36kr.com/p/3627959442424834)

[5] Zhitong Finance - J&T Express-W’s Total Parcel Volume Reached 30.1287 Billion Pieces in 2025, with Year-on-Year Growth of 22.2% (https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/5835524730/15bd30a7a020022wby)

[6] Huayuan Securities - Anti-Involution May Guide High-Quality Development of the Express Industry (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202507141708693870_1.pdf)

[7] Jinling AI - Financial Analysis Data of SF Holding (Source: [0])