Analysis of the Impact of SK hynix's HBM Chip Capacity Expansion on the Global Memory Chip Market

Based on the latest collected market data and research materials, I will provide you with an in-depth analysis of the impact of SK hynix’s HBM chip capacity expansion.

SK hynix has recently announced several major capacity expansion initiatives aimed at solidifying its leading position in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) sector:

At the 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2026), SK hynix showcased the core technical specifications of its latest-generation HBM4 chips:

• Stack Layers
  : 16-layer stack structure
• Single Chip Capacity
  : 48GB
• Bandwidth Performance
  : Over 2TB/s
• Manufacturing Process
  : 12nm process control logic developed in partnership with TSMC
• Mass Production Timing
  : Mass production expected to start in Q3 2026

The current global memory chip market is experiencing its worst supply-demand imbalance since 2024, with the following fundamental causes:

1. AI-driven Demand Surge
   : The rapid expansion of generative AI services has triggered unprecedented demand for specialized memory such as HBM; a single AI server requires 8-10 times more DRAM than a traditional server

2. Capacity Transfer Effect
   : The three major memory manufacturers (Samsung, SK hynix, Micron) have shifted advanced process capacity from traditional DRAM to high-margin HBM products, leading to a severe contraction in general-purpose memory supply

3. Manufacturing Efficiency Gap
   : Each GB of HBM capacity requires approximately 3 times the wafer capacity of standard DDR5, further exacerbating supply pressure

4. High Supply Chain Concentration
   : Over 90% of the global memory market is controlled by Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, resulting in limited supply flexibility

Negative values indicate supply shortage; Q1 2026 is expected to be the peak period of supply-demand imbalance

• 2026 Full-Year Average Price Growth
  : Morgan Stanley forecasts a 62% increase, Citigroup forecasts an 88% increase
• Q1 2026 Price Growth
  : Samsung and SK hynix plan a 60%-70% price hike
• DDR5 RDIMM Price
  : Expected to rise by over 40%
• Long-term Trend
  : Prices are expected to peak in 2026 and gradually decline in 2027-2028

• 2026 Full-Year Average Price Growth
  : Morgan Stanley forecasts a 75% increase, Citigroup forecasts a 74% increase
• Q1 2026 Price Growth
  : Expected to reach 33%-38%
• 512GB TLC Flash
  : Most significant price increase due to decommissioning of old capacity

• HBM3E
  : Surging demand in the Chinese market has brought nearly USD 3 billion in incremental demand, with prices remaining firm
• HBM4
  : Prices are expected to remain high in the initial mass production phase in Q3 2026
• Overall Trend
  : HBM supply will remain tight in 2026-2027

• Invest USD 13 billion to build the P&T7 advanced packaging plant
• Collaborate with TSMC to develop customized HBM4
• Plan to mass-produce 16-layer HBM4 in Q3 2026
• Target to maintain leadership in HBM3E while building an HBM4 ecosystem in 2026

• Close to reaching an HBM4 supply agreement with NVIDIA, targeting a supply share of over 30% in 2026
• Has passed certification in Google TPU’s SiP testing
• Accelerate efforts to narrow the technological gap in HBM3E

• HBM4 capacity is fully booked through the end of 2026
• Target to achieve 15,000 wafers of HBM4 capacity by the end of 2026
• Successfully obtained NVIDIA’s HBM4 specification certification

1. Surge in Semiconductor Equipment Demand
   :
   • Orders for TC bonders (thermocompression bonding) have increased, with a unit price of approximately 3 billion KRW per unit
   • SK hynix procured equipment worth 9.7 billion KRW from Hanmi Semiconductor
   • Equipment manufacturers such as ASML and Applied Materials benefit from capacity expansion

2. Tight Supply of Key Materials
   :
   • Increased demand for high-purity metal sputtering targets
   • Material companies such as Jiangfeng Electronics are building plants in South Korea to meet demand

1. Tight Advanced Process Capacity
   :
   • Advanced processes at 7nm and below are prioritized for AI chips and HBM
   • Capacity for traditional consumer electronics chips is constrained

2. Demand for Packaging Technology Upgrade
   :
   • Advanced packaging has become a strategic priority
   • Advanced packaging capacity such as TSMC’s CoWoS is in short supply

1. Alleviate HBM Supply Shortage
   :
   • New capacity will gradually fill the HBM demand gap for AI chips
   • The tight supply-demand situation is expected to start easing in H2 2026

2. Strengthen South Korea’s Semiconductor Industry Competitiveness
   :
   • Cheongju will become a global HBM production hub
   • Drive the development of South Korea’s semiconductor industry ecosystem

3. Drive Technological Innovation
   :
   • Mass production of 16-layer HBM4 will raise industry technical standards
   • Promote in-depth cooperation with foundries such as TSMC

1. Time Lag in Capacity Release
   :
   • New plants will only reach full-scale production in 2028
   • The tight supply-demand situation in 2026 cannot be fundamentally reversed

2. Technical Yield Challenges
   :
   • 16-layer HBM4 stacking technology is highly difficult
   • Yield issues cannot be fully resolved in the short term

3. Risk of Intensified Competition
   :
   • Samsung and Micron are accelerating their catch-up efforts
   • HBM market share may face erosion

1. Memory Chip Manufacturers
   : SK hynix (000660.KS), Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), and Micron Technology (MU) benefit from volume and price growth
2. Semiconductor Equipment
   : ASML (ASML), Applied Materials (AMAT), Tokyo Electron, etc. see continued order growth
3. Packaging and Testing
   : Strong demand for advanced packaging benefits companies such as ASE Group and Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology
4. Domestic Substitution
   : Domestic memory manufacturers such as ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies face development opportunities

1. Price Fluctuation Risk
   : Memory chip prices are highly volatile, and the industry has obvious cyclicality
2. Overcapacity Risk
   : If demand growth slows after 2027, overcapacity may occur
3. Technological Iteration Risk
   : New technology routes may change the competitive landscape
4. Geopolitical Risk
   : Chip export control policies may affect market demand

SK hynix’s HBM chip capacity expansion plan reflects the strategic adjustment of the memory chip industry to address the demand surge in the AI era. Against the backdrop of global memory chip supply-demand imbalance, capacity expansion will help alleviate supply shortages. However, considering the time lag in new capacity release and technical challenges, memory chip prices are expected to remain high in 2026. In the long term, as capacity is gradually released and technology iterates, the market will tend to balance in 2027-2028.

For investors, the memory chip industry is in a golden period of volume and price growth, but it is necessary to closely monitor changes in supply and demand and the evolution of the technological competitive landscape.

[1] SK hynix orders new equipment for HBM4 production

[2] SK Hynix to build $13 bn new advanced chip packaging plant

[3] SK Hynix undervalued as HBM pricing tightens into 2026

[4] Memory prices set to keep increasing over 2026

[5] The “Wait Tax”: IT Hardware Price Forecast Q1 2026

[6] 2024–2026 global memory supply shortage

[7] Samsung nears deal to supply over 30% of Nvidia’s HBM4

[8] Micron Technology and the Great Memory Debate of 2026

[9] The State of HBM4 Chronicled at CES 2026

[10] Up to 70% Price Hike! Major Breaking News from Two Chip Giants

[11] AI Computing Power Wave Drives Volume and Price Growth in the Memory Market

[12] AI Computing Power Triggers Price Hike Chain: Smartphones, PCs, and New Energy Vehicles All Affected

[13] A Box of Memory Chips Equals a House? AI Wave Drives Memory Chips