In-Depth Analysis of the Investment Value of the Securities Brokerage Sector: Adjustment of the Margin Requirement for Margin Financing and Evaluation of Profit Elasticity

Based on a systematic analysis of the latest market data and industry dynamics, I will provide an in-depth interpretation of the investment value of the securities brokerage sector from three dimensions:

.

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On January 14, 2026, with the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges issued a notice raising the minimum margin requirement for investors when purchasing securities on margin from

[1][2]. The background of this adjustment is as follows:

• Rising Market Sentiment
  : Since the “September 24, 2024” period, the balance of margin trading and securities lending has increased by over
  RMB 1 trillion
  [1]
• Risk Prevention and Control Needs
  : Moderately guide the market to cool down and prevent risks of short-term overheating
• Countercyclical Regulation
  : Conduct countercyclical regulation in accordance with statutory arrangements to promote the long-term healthy development of the market

Dimension	Details
Scope of Application	Only applicable to newly opened margin financing contracts; existing contracts and their extensions still follow the original regulations[1][2]
Theoretical Leverage	Reduced from a maximum of 1.25x to 1x (i.e., RMB 1 million in margin can finance RMB 1 million)
Historical Comparison	In November 2015, the margin requirement was raised from 50% to 100%, when the balance of margin trading and securities lending reached the trillion-yuan level

: This adjustment adopts the principle of “new and old contracts are handled separately”, and some brokerage firms (such as Sinolink Securities, Hualin Securities) had already raised their margin requirements in 2025, so the policy impact has been gradually absorbed[2][3].

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According to the latest disclosed financial data, the performance of the securities brokerage sector achieved substantial growth in 2025[4][5][6]:

Indicator	2024	2025	Year-on-Year Growth
Operating Revenue of 42 Listed Brokerages	RMB 320 billion	RMB 420 billion	+30%+
Net Attributable Profit	RMB 80 billion	RMB 150 billion	+87.5%
Annualized ROE	~5%	7.01%	Increased by 2 percentage points

In the first three quarters of 2025, 42 listed brokerages achieved

in proprietary trading revenue, a year-on-year increase of [4]:

Brokerage Firm	Proprietary Trading Revenue (RMB billion)	Year-on-Year Growth
CITIC Securities	31.603	+45.88%
Guotai Haitong	20.370	+90.11%
China Galaxy Securities	12.081	+38.12%

• Average daily transaction volume remained at a historical high of
  RMB 1.7 trillion
  [6]
• Securities brokerage commission income reached
  RMB 74.563 billion
  , a year-on-year increase of approximately
  50%
  [5]
• New margin trading and securities lending accounts hit a record high: 1.5421 million new accounts were opened in 2025, a 10-year high[2][3]

The total scale of equity financing in 2025 reached

, a significant increase from RMB 290.472 billion in 2024[7]:

• IPO fundraising: RMB 131.771 billion (YoY +61.49%)
• Private placement fundraising: RMB 887.732 billion
• The total investment banking income of the top five brokerages reached
  RMB 7.449 billion
  , accounting for nearly half of the entire industry[5]

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Driving Factor	Current Status	Sustainability Rating	Logical Support
Market Activity	Average daily transaction volume of RMB 1.7 trillion	★★★★★	Clear trend of household asset migration and medium- to long-term capital entering the market
Margin Trading and Securities Lending Business	Balance of RMB 2.68 trillion, leverage ratio of 1x	★★★☆☆	The margin requirement adjustment affects incremental business, but existing positions are unaffected
Proprietary Trading Business	Continuous increase in equity positions	★★★★☆	Policy support such as swap facilities and optimized risk control indicators
Investment Banking Business	Equity financing scale of RMB 1.08 trillion	★★★★★	Normalized IPOs + active M&A + recovery of Hong Kong IPOs
Wealth Management	32% growth in agency sales revenue	★★★★★	Household asset allocation shifting to equities (current proportion of equity funds is only 15%)

• Optimized Equity Financing Rhythm
  : The scale of IPOs and refinancing rebounded significantly in 2025[7]
• Increased M&A Activity
  : Guotai Haitong completed its merger; the merger between CICC and Dongxing Securities is in progress[6]
• Expansion of Derivative Tools
  : Enrich risk management tools and enhance brokerages’ service capabilities for institutional clients
• Deepened Wealth Management Transformation
  : Shift from “earning commissions” to “earning management fees and service fees”[6]

In the first three quarters of 2025, the top ten brokerages accounted for

, an increase of over 2 percentage points compared to 2024[6]:

Trend	Performance
Strengthened Head Effect	CITIC Securities and Guotai Haitong both achieved over RMB 20 billion in net profit in the first three quarters
Accelerated M&A and Integration	The policy orientation of “supporting superior players and restricting inferior ones” promotes the concentration of industry resources to leading firms
Improved Operational Efficiency	Leverage ratio stabilized at 3.47x, and profitability was optimized

• Swap facilities provide brokerages with capital replenishment channels
• Optimized risk control indicators support brokerages in expanding leverage space
• Most brokerages have healthy risk control indicators, with significant room to increase equity allocation[4]

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:

Scenario	Growth Rate of Margin Trading and Securities Lending Balance	Impact on Brokerage Business	Comprehensive Judgment
Base Scenario	-5%	-3%	Mildly Neutral
Optimistic Scenario	0%	+2%	Positive
Pessimistic Scenario	-15%	-8%	Short-Term Pressure

:

• Existing Positions Unaffected
  : Already opened contracts follow the original ratio; only incremental business is restricted[1][2]
• Mild Decline in Theoretical Leverage
  : Reduced from 1.25x to 1x, but the actual impact is limited
• Policy Significance outweighs Actual Impact
  : Aimed at promoting a long-term, slow bull market[1]

Looking back at market performance after the margin requirement was raised from 50% to 100% in 2015:

• Short-term market fluctuations occurred, but the medium- to long-term trend remained unchanged
• Brokerage sector performance continued to grow within 1-2 quarters after the adjustment
• Investor structure was gradually optimized, and market resilience was enhanced

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Target Type	Recommendation Logic	Representative Stocks
Leading Brokerages	Comprehensive performance layout, strong capital strength, consolidated leading position	CITIC Securities (600030), Huatai Securities (601688)
High-Elasticity Targets	Outstanding equity elasticity, full release of performance	Orient Securities (600958), Guolian Securities (601456)
Wealth Management Leaders	Increased market share in brokerage and margin trading businesses, strong traffic monetization capabilities	East Money (300059)

[4]:

Brokerage Firm	Closing Price (RMB)	2025E PE	2026E PE	Investment Rating
CITIC Securities	29.08	14.29	12.75	Outperform Market
Huatai Securities	22.84	11.42	10.26	Outperform Market
East Money	25.13	31.54	27.60	Outperform Market

1. Risk of Sharp Fluctuations in the Secondary Market
   : The securities brokerage sector is highly correlated with market trends
2. Risk of Tighter Regulatory Policies
   : Measures such as the margin requirement hike may continue
3. Risk of Macro Economic Downturn
   : Affects the overall activity of the capital market
4. Risk of Intensified Industry Competition
   : Sustained downward pressure on commission rates

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Core Logic:

1. Marginal Diminution of Policy Impact
   : Existing contracts are unaffected, and the principle of “new and old contracts are handled separately” is implemented mildly
2. Diversified Profit Drivers
   : Proprietary trading, brokerage, investment banking, and wealth management businesses all thrive, reducing reliance on a single business
3. Recovery of Capital Market Functions
   : Equity financing, M&A, and expansion of derivatives provide sustained growth momentum
4. Clear Trend of Household Asset Migration
   : The proportion of equity funds is only 15%, leaving broad room for wealth management transformation
5. Optimized Industry Structure
   : Increased concentration of leading firms leads to improved ROE, and leading brokerages still have room for valuation recovery

: Under the expectation of a slow bull market, it is recommended to accumulate leading brokerages with high performance certainty and reasonable valuations, as well as leading targets in wealth management transformation on dips, to enjoy the long-term dividends brought by the deepening reform of the capital market.

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[1] Securities Times Network. Raised from 80% to 100%! Three Exchanges Hike Margin Requirement Jointly. (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3592931.html)

[2] 21st Century Business Herald. Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Stock Exchanges Raise Margin Requirement for Margin Financing: What Changes for 2026 Incremental Capital? (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260114/herald/53a22d0fd2fc3f6b5a7282e61796e3bc.html)

[3] Securities Times Network. Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Stock Exchanges Raise Margin Requirement for Margin Financing: What Changes for 2026 Incremental Capital? (https://www.nfnews.com/content/voDD4J2low.html)

[4] Guosen Securities. Quarterly Review of the Securities Industry Q3 2025. (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202511151781893785_1.pdf)

[5] National Business Daily. Mid-Year Performance Review of the Securities Industry 2025: Wealth Management and Investment Banking Sectors Shine. (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-09-03/doc-infpfakk4500776.shtml)

[6] China Fund News. The “Bull Market Flag Bearer” Securities Brokerage Sector This Year: M&A Booms. (https://www.chnfund.com/article/AR7f517fa1-eddb-1f57-5c9b-3a1e533d9619)

[7] Securities Times. Equity Financing Surge in 2025: New Pattern of Brokerage Underwriting Emerges. (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3591148.html)