Investment Value Analysis Report on Changshan Pharmaceuticals (300255.SZ)

Based on the collected information, I provide you with an in-depth investment research analysis report on Changshan Pharmaceuticals:

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On January 11, 2026, the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) announced a commercial bribery case.

in 2023, to promote Changshan Pharmaceuticals’ Dalteparin Sodium Injection (trade name “Wanmainning”), paid a total of RMB 35,046 in kickbacks to Dr. Gu, a doctor in the Reproductive Immunology Department of Shanghai First Maternity and Infant Hospital, corresponding to 18,275 prescribed drug doses. After calculation, . The partnership has been fined RMB 300,000 by the Putuo District Market Supervision and Administration Bureau of Shanghai. [1][2]

This case marks that the pharmaceutical procurement credit evaluation system has entered the deep-water zone of “

”. The regulatory authorities have sent three key signals: [2]

1. Accountability Traceability
   : No longer stopping at punishing “intermediaries”, but tracing back to the pharmaceutical entity through distribution links contracts and invoices
2. Failure of Compliance Isolation
   : Pharmaceutical companies cannot achieve legal isolation through outsourcing service agreements
3. Micro-level Regulation
   : The precise disclosure of the RMB 1.92 kickback shows that regulatory control over the details of centralized procurement implementation has reached a micro level

The Shanghai Pharmaceutical Affairs Institute has initiated a

against Changshan Pharmaceuticals. If rated as “seriously untrustworthy”, the company may face: [2]

• Delisting of the involved products from the online procurement platform
• Severe sanctions including being barred from participating in national centralized procurement

Considering that heparin products account for over

of the company’s revenue and the company is in a loss-making period, losing access to the centralized procurement market is equivalent to cutting off its core growth driver.

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Indicator	2023	2024	First Three Quarters of 2025
Operating Revenue	RMB 851 million	RMB 1.031 billion	RMB 681 million
YoY Change	-39.63%	-26.92%	-13.11%
Net Attributable Profit	-RMB 1.24 billion	-RMB 249 million	-RMB 45 million
YoY Change	-7181.47%	Narrowing Loss	-714.77%
Gross Profit Margin	Continuous Decline	Continuous Decline	Continuous Decline

Company financial reports and brokerage API data [0]

• The 8th round of national pharmaceutical centralized procurement led to a
  significant decline
  in the sales price of heparin preparations
• The market share structure of domestic low-molecular-weight heparin preparations has changed
• Sales volume of the flagship product, Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin Calcium Injection,
  plunged sharply
  [3]

• The heparin API market is highly competitive, with prices fluctuating at a low level
• Unstable cost-side pressures have compressed profit margins

• Asset impairment provisions have affected profit performance
• Financial compliance issues have weighed on operations

• R&D progress of GLP-1 drugs is lagging, failing to provide performance support

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Item	Details
Drug Name	Ebenatide Injection
Drug Type	GLP-1 Receptor Agonist (Single Target)
Partner	Changshan Kaijiejian (Controlled Subsidiary)
R&D Milestones	Layout initiated in 2012; NDA for diabetes indication accepted in 2024
Latest Progress	Clinical trial approval for weight loss indication obtained in June 2025

Company announcements and public information [3][4]

• June 20, 2025
  : The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) approved the clinical trial application for Ebenatide Injection for weight loss indication
• June 2024
  : New Drug Application (NDA) for diabetes indication was accepted, and it is currently in the professional review stage
• Clinical Trial Status
  : As of now, clinical trials for the weight loss indication have not officially commenced [3]

Drug	Company	Approval Date	Features
Semaglutide	Novo Nordisk	June 2024	World’s first weekly preparation, first-mover advantage
Tirzepatide	Eli Lilly	January 2025	Dual target, superior efficacy
Mazdutide	Innovent Biologics	September 2025	First domestic product, has entered medical insurance negotiation
HRS9531	Hengrui Medicine	September 2025 (NDA accepted)	Dual target, potential for “best-in-class”

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly hold a , forming a duopoly. [5][6]

Product	Original Price	Price After Reduction	Reduction Range
Semaglutide (Novoeight)	RMB 1,893	RMB 987	~50%
Tirzepatide (Mufengda)	RMB 2,180	RMB 450 (e-commerce)	~80%

Multinational pharmaceutical companies took the initiative to reduce prices to:

• Set price anchors and build defensive barriers
• Prepare for patent expirations in 2026 and competition from domestic drugs
• Seize the initiative in medical insurance negotiations [5][6]

1. Lagging R&D Progress
   : As a single-target GLP-1 product, it faces fierce competition from 22 human-derived long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonists
2. Lack of Efficacy Data
   : The company stated that “it has not yet conducted comparative experiments with competitors such as Semaglutide”
3. Uncertain Launch Time
   : The diabetes indication has not been approved yet, and the weight loss indication has just entered clinical trials
4. Unclear Internationalization Plan
   : There are no plans to conduct clinical trials in international markets such as the US for the time being

1. Huge Market Size
   : According to an open-source securities research report, the global sales scale of GLP-1 drugs is expected to
   exceed USD 150 billion
   by 2031 [4]
2. Room for Domestic Substitution
   : Domestic enterprises still have opportunities to gain share in niche markets
3. Trend of Multi-target/Oral Preparations
   : If the company can achieve technological upgrading, there is still potential for a breakthrough

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Time Period	Increase
Year-to-Date (YTD)	-3.77%
6 Months	+18.77%
1 Year	+213.51%
3 Years	+945.23%
5 Years	+967.87%

RMB 57.79 per share (January 12, 2026)
Approximately RMB 54 billion

Indicator	Value	Evaluation
P/E	-180.29x	Loss-making status, no practical significance
P/B	35.84x	Extremely High
ROE	-19.53%	Negative, shareholder return is negative
Net Profit Margin	-32.50%	Severely Loss-Making

The stock price increase is mainly driven by the GLP-1 concept, which is detached from fundamental support, posing a risk of . [0]

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Risk Type	Details	Risk Level
Compliance Risk	NHSA credit evaluation process may lead to loss of centralized procurement qualification	★★★★★
Delisting Risk	Losses for two consecutive years; if losses continue in 2025, it may be designated as *ST	★★★★☆
Policy Risk	Continuous price pressure from centralized procurement compresses profit margins of the heparin business	★★★★☆
R&D Risk	Uncertain launch time of Ebenatide; clinical trials may fail	★★★☆☆
Competition Risk	Fierce competition in the GLP-1 market makes it difficult for latecomers to gain market share	★★★☆☆
Valuation Risk	Stock price is detached from fundamentals, posing a pullback risk	★★★☆☆

If Changshan Pharmaceuticals is rated as “seriously untrustworthy”:

• It may be included in the “blacklist” and restricted from listing products on the procurement platform
• Impact on medical insurance payment eligibility
• Institutional investors may be forced to reduce their holdings, triggering stock price fluctuations

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1. Far-reaching Impact of the Commercial Bribery Incident
   : Penetrating regulation directly transmits compliance risks to the listed company, which may trigger a centralized procurement credit crisis and deal a fatal blow to the heparin business that accounts for over 90% of revenue.
2. Main Business Continues to Be Under Pressure
   : Amid the dual pressures of centralized procurement policies and market competition, the downward trend of the heparin business is irreversible, and the company has suffered substantial losses for two consecutive years.
3. Ebenatide Cannot Reverse the Decline
   :
   • R&D progress is severely lagging, and the launch time is uncertain
   • Single-target products face dimensionality reduction strikes from multi-target drugs
   • The GLP-1 market has entered a price war phase, leaving limited space for latecomers
   • Lack of efficacy data and unclear competitive advantages
4. Huge Valuation Bubble
   : The stock price increase far exceeds fundamental support. Once the concept cools down or the company faces regulatory penalties, the stock price may face a sharp pullback.

• Short-term uncertainty from NHSA credit evaluation
• Medium-term difficulty in turning around the loss-making main heparin business
• Long-term difficulty in materializing the GLP-1 concept to support valuation
• Extremely mismatched risk-return ratio

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[1] The Paper - “Weight-loss Drugs Spark a ‘Price War’: Semaglutide Takes the Initiative to Cut Price by Nearly 50%, Tirzepatide Sold at 20% of Original Price” (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32281250)

[2] Sina Finance - “The ‘Heparin Leader’ Involved in Commercial Bribery, Changshan Pharmaceuticals Faces Centralized Procurement Credit Crisis” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2026-01-12/doc-inhfzysp6799943.shtml)

[3] The Beijing News - “Changshan Pharmaceuticals Joins the ‘Weight-Loss Drug’ War: Losses for Two Consecutive Years, Stock Price Doubles” (https://m.bjnews.com.cn/detail/1750844808129062.html)

[4] 21st Century Business Herald - “Fierce Battle in the Weight-Loss Drug Market! Two Companies Announce Latest GLP-1 Progress on the Same Day” (https://m.21jingji.com/article/20250620/herald/ba870483a84fcc590bab811855560045.html)

[5] Cailianshe - “Halved, 20% Off! Semaglutide and Tirzepatide Cut Prices Collectively; Competition for Weight-Loss Drugs Shifts Forward to 2026” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-27/doc-inhefcys0206757.shtml)

[6] Sina Finance - “It’s 2026, Is GLP-1 Still Worth Investing In?” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/2026-01-09/doc-inhfswxr5869531.shtml)

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Jinling AI Financial Research Department
January 15, 2026