In-Depth Analysis of Apple's AI Strategy and the Rationality of Google Surpassing Its Market Capitalization

Now I have collected sufficient data, let me prepare a comprehensive professional analysis report for you:

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As of the close of trading on January 14, 2026, the market performance of the two tech giants shows a clear divergence [0]:

Metric	Apple (AAPL)	Google (GOOGL)
Current Stock Price	$257.29	$333.55
Market Capitalization	$3.80T	$4.03T
1-Year Gain	+10.29%	+75.87%
6-Month Gain	+23.33%	+83.71%
3-Month Gain	+3.84%	+35.89%
P/E (TTM)	34.44x	32.96x

Google’s stock price surged nearly 65% in 2025, while Apple’s rose only about 8.39% over the same period. Since 2026, Apple’s stock price has fallen 4.27%, while Google’s has risen approximately 5.84% [1][2].

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Although Apple laid out its AI plans early (launching Siri in 2011), its wrong technical route choice has led to a serious lag in the era of large models. Apple has long used structured NLU technology, resulting in slow progress of Siri, which is derided by users as “artificial retardation” [1]. Despite launching Apple Intelligence at WWDC 2024, its core feature “Personalized Siri” has been repeatedly delayed and has not yet been launched as of now [1].

Analysts point out that Apple’s AI budget for 2026 is only in the billions of US dollars, while competitors such as Microsoft, Meta, and Google have annual AI budgets exceeding $50 billion [1]. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives sharply commented: “Their AI strategy is a disaster… It’s like there’s an F1 race going on, and Apple and Cook are just sitting on a park bench drinking cappuccinos, watching from the sidelines” [1].

Apple is experiencing a wave of key AI talent losses:

• AI model leads Ruoming Pang, Jian Zhang, etc. jumped to Meta [2]
• Vice President of User Interface Design Alan Dye left to join Meta [2]
• Johny Srouji, one of Apple’s most respected executives in charge of chip business, is considering leaving [2]
• OpenAI has poached dozens of engineers from Apple covering multiple fields such as iPhone, Mac, camera, and display technology [2]

Apple has long relied on its closed ecosystem and hardware profits, and its AI strategy has been swinging back and forth. Its philosophy of “innovation does not pursue being the first to launch, but pursues the best experience” is facing implementation difficulties in the AI field - the cost of large models is rising rapidly, there is a lack of clear differentiated paths, and it is trapped in homogenized competition [1].

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Google is fully committed to a full-stack AI layout, achieving deep integration from foundational models (Gemini) to the application layer (search, cloud computing). Google takes Gemini as the core engine of transformation, deeply embedding it into its dominant search platform, forming a “AI + Search” synergy effect [3].

On January 13, 2026, Apple and Google reached a multi-year cooperation agreement, and Apple’s next-generation foundational model will be built based on Google’s Gemini model and cloud technology [1][4]. This marks:

• Google’s AI technology has been recognized by the world’s largest consumer electronics manufacturer
• Google is building an AI ecosystem covering mainstream consumer electronics terminals (Apple + Samsung) [4]
• Further squeezing the living space of startups such as OpenAI

From a valuation perspective,

[4]. Google has regained market favor with its breakthroughs in the AI field.

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Metric	Apple (AAPL)	Google (GOOGL)
Net Profit Margin	26.92%	32.23%
ROE (Return on Equity)	1.64%	35.00%
Current Ratio	0.89	1.75
Debt Risk Rating	High Risk	Low Risk
Accounting Stance	Aggressive	Conservative
P/B (Price-to-Book Ratio)	52.18x	10.42x

• Aggressive accounting policies may limit the upside potential of future profits [5]
• Current ratio is below 1 (0.89), indicating weak short-term solvency [0]
• Extremely low ROE (1.64%), insufficient shareholder return capacity [0]
• Debt risk rating is “High Risk” [5]

• Conservative accounting policies, with room for profit improvement [5]
• Healthy current ratio (1.75), financially sound [0]
• High ROE of 35%, strong shareholder return capacity [0]
• Debt risk rating is “Low Risk” [5]

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Company	Consensus Rating	Target Price	Upside Potential
Apple	Buy	$312.50	+21.5%
Google	Buy	$325.00	-2.6%

As a representative of long-term value investing, Buffett’s choices are of wind vane significance:

• Apple was once Berkshire Hathaway’s largest holding, accounting for over 50% of the portfolio
• Since 2024, it has continued to reduce holdings; as of Q3 2025, Apple’s share has dropped to 22.69% [1]
• During the same period, Berkshire purchased approximately 17.85 million shares of Alphabet, with a market value of about $4.3 billion [1]

This shift conveys concerns about Apple’s long-term growth prospects.

Metric	Apple (AAPL)	Google (GOOGL)
Trend Judgment	Sideways Consolidation	Sideways Consolidation
MACD	Death Cross (Bearish)	No Crossover (Bullish)
KDJ	Oversold Zone	Buy Signal
RSI	Oversold	Overbought Risk
Beta	1.09	1.09

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1. Significant AI Strategy Gap:
   Google’s full-stack AI layout and capital investment far exceed Apple’s, and its technological leadership is becoming increasingly obvious [1][2]
2. Differences in Financial Quality:
   Google’s core indicators such as ROE (35% vs. 1.64%) and net profit margin (32.23% vs. 26.92%) are all superior [0][5]
3. Differences in Growth Momentum:
   Google’s 2025 gain (+65%) far exceeds Apple’s (+8.39%), and the gap in 6-month gains is even more pronounced (+83.71% vs. +23.33%) [0]
4. Shift in Investor Expectations:
   AI technological leadership has replaced ecosystem scale as the core valuation anchor [4]
5. Disadvantage of Talent Drain:
   Apple continues to lose key AI talent to competitors such as Meta and OpenAI [2]

1. Apple’s Ecosystem Moat Remains Deep:
   Nearly 40% of the global smartphone market share (Apple + Samsung), with a huge installed base of devices [4]
2. Short-Term Boost from Collaboration:
   The partnership with Google Gemini may improve Apple’s AI experience and narrow the gap [1][4]
3. Profit Stability:
   Apple’s services business (accounting for 28.1%) and iPhone business (accounting for 47.8%) still have resilience [0]
4. Market Volatility Risk:
   The market capitalization rankings of tech stocks may fluctuate with market sentiment and technological progress

From a short to medium-term perspective, Google’s leading advantages in the AI field will continue to support its valuation premium. Apple’s challenges are not only lagging AI technology, but also deeper issues:

• Innovation momentum is insufficient due to strategic path dependence
• Talent drain weakens technological accumulation
• Capital market concerns about its long-term growth are increasing

However, Apple’s huge user base, monetization capabilities of its closed ecosystem, and strategies to catch up on AI experience through external collaborations (OpenAI + Gemini) still leave it with the possibility of a comeback.

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Investment Horizon	Apple (AAPL)	Google (GOOGL)
Short-Term	Hold Off (weak technicals, lagging AI progress)	Hold (strong momentum, but RSI overbought)
Medium-Term	Focus on the progress of Personalized Siri	Focus on AI monetization progress
Long-Term	Depends on the effectiveness of AI ecosystem construction	Depends on the synergy effect of Search + AI

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[1] OFweek AI Network - “Spending $1 Billion to Bring in Google as a Foreign Aid, Can Apple’s AI Make a Comeback?” (https://mp.ofweek.com/ai/a556714340627)

[2] 36Kr - “Google Gave Apple a ‘Harsh Lesson’” (http://www.36kr.com/p/3637809727360389)

[3] Substack - “HOW GOOGLE BEAT APPLE” (https://eshap.substack.com/p/how-google-beat-apple)

[4] Sina Finance - “Apple and Google Enter the Deep Waters of AI” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/2026-01-13/doc-inhheixp9079864.shtml)

[5] Jinling API Financial Analysis Data [0]

[6] Jinling API Technical Analysis Data [0]

[7] Jinling API Market Data [0]