Nexa Resources (NEXA): 52-Week High Analysis and Investment Outlook

Based on comprehensive analysis of Nexa Resources’ stock performance, zinc market dynamics, and company fundamentals, here is a detailed assessment:

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Nexa Resources has achieved a remarkable rally, reaching a 52-week high of $11.08, representing an extraordinary gain from its 52-week low of $5.05 [0]. The stock is currently trading at $11.06, essentially at its peak level (99.8% of 52-week high). Key performance metrics demonstrate exceptional momentum across all timeframes:

Period	Return
1 Day	+3.25%
5 Days	+15.49%
1 Month	+39.40%
3 Months	+94.23%
6 Months	+122.20%
1 Year	+79.19%

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The company’s Q3 2025 results exceeded market expectations significantly:

• Net revenues
  : $764 million, up 8% year-over-year [1]
• EPS
  : $0.52 versus analyst forecast of $0.286 (+81.8% surprise) [1]
• Adjusted EBITDA
  : $186 million, up 16% from previous quarter [1]
• Net income
  : $100 million, demonstrating meaningful profitability improvement [1]

The EPS recovery from -$0.03 in Q3 to positive $0.52 represents a dramatic operational turnaround.

Zinc production reached

in Q3 2025, representing a quarter-over-quarter [1]. This production boost was primarily driven by improved performance at Peruvian operations, particularly at Cerro Lindo. The integrated mine-smelter business model provides operational flexibility and cost advantages.

• Free cash flow generation of $52 million [1]
• Target to reduce net leverage to approximately 1x in coming years [1]
• Strong operational cash flow supporting capital allocation priorities

Scotiabank upgraded Nexa from “Sector Underperform” to “Sector Perform” on October 14, 2025, reflecting improved operational outlook [0]. However, the consensus rating remains “Hold” with a price target of $7.35—approximately

.

The stock exhibits lower volatility than the broader market, providing defensive characteristics within the materials sector [0]. This lower beta can attract risk-conscious investors during uncertain market conditions.

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Zinc prices have demonstrated resilience, trading around

(approximately $1.44/lb), representing an year-over-year [2][3]. The LME zinc market has experienced supply tightness due to low inventories, supporting prices despite demand concerns.

Factor	Outlook
Morgan Stanley 2026 Forecast	$2,900/MT average [3]
Trading Economics Q1 2026	$3,175/MT (end of quarter) [2]
12-Month Forecast	$3,320/MT [2]
Global Supply-Demand	Surplus of 271,000 MT expected in 2026 [3]

Key dynamics shaping zinc prices:

1. Near-Term Support
   : Upward momentum from 2025 LME average of $3,218 expected to continue through H1 2026 [3]

2. Chinese Demand Concerns
   : Chinese real estate sector weakness persists, limiting galvanizing steel demand (zinc’s primary end-use) [3]

3. Regional Disparities
   : Chinese production at surplus while rest of world faces supply shortages [3]

4. Policy Tailwinds
   : Trump administration policy proposals (December 17) could boost US housing sector and downstream zinc demand [3]

5. European Recovery
   : European zinc demand expected to grow following predicted 0.7% expansion in 2025 [3]

• Nexa’s integrated mine-smelter model provides margin protection during price volatility
• Production growth (+14% QoQ) amplifies revenue during favorable pricing environments
• Low-carbon operations differentiate Nexa from competitors in ESG-focused investment strategies [1]
• Latin American asset base provides geographic diversification away from Chinese demand concentration

• Long-term zinc surplus (271,000 MT in 2026) could pressure prices [3]
• Morgan Stanley’s 2026 forecast of $2,900/MT suggests potential price decline from current levels
• Chinese property sector weakness may persist through 2027 [3]
• US tariff implementation could impact advanced economy demand [3]

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Indicator	Value	Signal
MACD	No cross	Bullish
KDJ	K:91.5, D:86.0, J:102.6	Overbought warning
RSI (14)	Overbought risk	Cautionary
20-Day MA	$9.19	Above 50-day MA ($7.63)
Beta	0.54	Defensive

: NEXA is in an . Key levels:

• Support
  : $9.84
• Resistance
  : $11.08 (52-week high)
• Next Target
  : $11.53

The KDJ indicator showing overbought conditions (J:102.6) and RSI risk suggest potential short-term consolidation or pullback despite the strong momentum [0].

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Despite the strong price performance, significant valuation gaps exist:

• Current Price
  : $11.06
• Analyst Consensus Target
  : $7.35 (70% Hold, 30% Sell ratings) [0]
• Discount to Target
  : -33.8%
• P/E Ratio
  : -16.22x (negative due to prior losses) [0]
• P/S Ratio
  : 0.53x (potentially attractive if profitability sustains)

• Sustained zinc prices above $3,000/MT supporting revenue growth
• Continued production increases from Peruvian operations
• Potential further analyst upgrades
• Successful deleveraging improves financial flexibility
• US infrastructure spending boosting base metals demand

• Zinc price decline toward $2,900/MT forecast
• Overbought technical conditions triggering correction
• Chinese property sector weakness limiting demand
• Global surplus building in 2026-2027
• Earnings disappointment in upcoming Q4 report (February 19, 2026)

Factor	Assessment
Momentum	Extremely Strong (+122% over 6 months)
Valuation	Overvalued relative to analyst targets
Zinc Outlook	Near-term constructive, long-term challenged
Technical	Overbought with potential consolidation
Analyst Sentiment	Cautious (Hold consensus)

: The stock’s exceptional rally appears to have outpaced fundamental value. While operational improvements and zinc price support provide legitimate catalysts, the 33.8% discount to analyst consensus suggests the market may be overestimating sustainable upside. Risk-tolerant investors may consider small positions on dips toward $9.84 support, while conservative investors should await Q4 earnings for clearer operational confirmation before committing capital.

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1. February 19, 2026
   : Q4 FY2025 earnings report (EPS estimate: $0.35) [0]
2. Zinc price movements
   above $3,200/MT or below $2,800/MT
3. Production guidance updates
   for 2026
4. Debt reduction progress
   toward 1x net leverage target
5. US policy developments
   affecting infrastructure and housing sectors

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[0] GoldLink API - Market Data and Technical Analysis

[1] Investing.com - “Earnings call transcript: Nexa Resources Q3 2025 beats revenue expectations” (https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-nexa-resources-q3-2025-beats-revenue-expectations-93CH-4324390)

[2] Trading Economics - “Zinc Price - Chart - Historical Data” (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/zinc)

[3] Nasdaq - “Zinc Price Forecast: Top Trends for Zinc in 2026” (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/zinc-price-forecast-top-trends-zinc-2026)