Spot Silver Breaks $90 to Hit All-Time High: Evaluation of Silver Mining Companies' Investment Value

Based on the collected data and analysis above, I will provide you with a comprehensive research report:

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On January 14, 2026, the spot silver market witnessed a historic moment, with prices once surging to $91.54 per ounce intraday, breaking through the $90 mark for the first time, and having risen more than 25% in just 9 trading days this year [1][2]. Compared to $29.35 at the start of 2025, this price represents an increase of over 210%, a rare magnitude and speed of rally in precious metals history [0]. From a technical analysis perspective, the current deviation of silver price from the 200-day moving average has reached 95.69%, the 20-day momentum stands at 30.97%, and the 60-day momentum is as high as 92.43%, indicating strong upward momentum [0].

Silver’s total market value has since exceeded $5 trillion for the first time, surpassing NVIDIA to become the world’s second-largest asset, second only to gold’s $32.162 trillion market value [1][2]. This milestone marks a significant rise in silver’s status in global asset allocation.

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is the direct catalyst for the recent silver price rally. The U.S. Department of Justice issued a subpoena to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell related to the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters, an event that sparked serious market concerns about the Fed’s independence. Carsten Menke, Head of Research at Julius Baer Group, stated: “We believe interference with the Federal Reserve is a key bullish factor for the precious metals market in 2026” [4]. Market analyst Zain Vawda pointed out that the independence of the Federal Reserve System “is now openly questioned”, prompting investors to shift to physical assets such as precious metals [4].

provide a favorable macro environment for silver investment. Interest rate cuts directly reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like silver, and the slowdown in U.S. non-farm payroll growth and rise in unemployment to a four-year high in November 2025 further strengthened market expectations of continued interest rate cuts in 2026 [5]. Historical data shows that for every 1% decline in the U.S. Dollar Index, silver price rises by an average of 1.5%-2%, and its sensitivity to dollar fluctuations is even higher than that of gold [5].

further supports silver prices. The U.S. Dollar Index has broken key levels multiple times in 2025 and is currently in a low range around 97.81 [5]. Since silver is priced in U.S. dollars, the depreciation of the dollar directly makes silver relatively more expensive in other currencies, attracting buying interest from global investors.

has injected strong safe-haven sentiment into the precious metals market. A series of geopolitical events, including the sharp deterioration of relations between the U.S. and Venezuela, the U.S. government’s threat to annex Greenland, violent protests in Iran, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, have significantly heightened investor concerns about global stability [3][4]. These uncertainties have prompted institutional and individual investors to allocate funds to safe-haven precious metal assets.

has become a unique driver of silver price rally. This was a popular policy arbitrage strategy on Wall Street in 2025, which centers on predicting the Trump administration’s pattern of “taking a tough stance first, then backing down under pressure” on issues such as trade, to profit from market fluctuations of “threat - panic sell-off - compromise - rebound recovery” [6]. The popularity of this strategy has amplified the volatility of precious metal prices and also provided substantial returns for trend-following strategies.

, which is the fundamental factor supporting the long-term rally of silver prices. According to data from the Silver Institute, 2025 will see the fifth consecutive year of silver supply deficit, which is expected to reach a large scale of 95 million ounces (approximately 2,693 tons) [5][7]. From 2021 to 2025, the cumulative supply-demand gap of silver will reach nearly 820 million ounces (approximately 23,200 tons) [6].

, further exacerbating supply tightness. Since 2020, COMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) silver inventories have dropped by 70%, and London vault inventories have fallen by 40% [7]. At the current demand rate, available silver inventories in some regions can only last 30 to 45 days. This inventory crisis has directly triggered a physical silver short squeeze.

limits the growth of silver supply. Production has declined in major silver-producing countries such as Mexico and Peru, while China, one of the world’s largest silver exporters, imposed export restrictions on silver in 2025, further tightening global silver supply [4]. Elon Musk commented on social media: “This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes” [7].

, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% from 2019 to 2024 [5]. The explosive growth of the photovoltaic industry has become the main source of incremental silver demand. With the advancement of global carbon neutrality goals and the continuous decline of photovoltaic power generation costs, photovoltaic installed capacity has continued to expand, driving a corresponding sharp increase in demand for conductive silver paste.

have emerged as new growth poles for silver’s industrial demand. The electrical systems, battery connections, and charging infrastructure of electric vehicles require large amounts of silver; the rapid growth of AI servers has also driven an increase in silver usage for electronic components [4][5]. These structural demand growths make silver prices closely related to the global economic cycle, but also provide solid fundamental support for it.

is an important driver of silver’s accelerated rally. As gold prices break through historical highs, some capital has shifted to relatively undervalued silver to seek higher return elasticity [5]. The gold-silver ratio has fallen from about 80 in April 2025 to below 60 currently, a decline of more than 40% [6]. This capital rotation effect has amplified silver’s upward momentum.

has formed a positive feedback loop during the price rally. Reports indicate that stimulated by price increases, silver investment demand has increased significantly, and tight spot supply has triggered a rush to purchase physical silver [1]. This rising investment enthusiasm has further exacerbated the market’s supply-demand contradiction.

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From a technical analysis perspective, the current silver market shows typical strong characteristics [0]:

Indicator	Value	Interpretation
Current Price	$91.00	Breached all-time high
20-Day Moving Average	$76.51	Short-term uptrend confirmed
50-Day Moving Average	$65.51	Medium-term uptrend confirmed
200-Day Moving Average	$46.50	Long-term uptrend confirmed
Deviation from 200-Day Moving Average	+95.69%	Severe overbought zone
Annualized Volatility	86.19%	High-volatility market
20-Day Momentum	+30.97%	Strong short-term momentum
60-Day Momentum	+92.43%	Extremely strong medium-term trend

has raised its 3-month gold target price to $5,000 per ounce, and simultaneously raised its silver target price to $100 per ounce [1][2]. Calculated on this basis, silver price may still have upside potential of over 10%.

stated in its latest research report that it recommends “holding silver for the long term”, believing that in the short term, the Bloomberg index rebalancing will end, and safe-haven sentiment, delivery logic, and expectations of tight commodity supplies will persist. In the long term, interest rate cuts, five consecutive years of supply-demand gaps, and large-scale global fiscal policies are all favorable for silver in the long run [1].

is optimistic about silver’s trend, believing that silver has both financial and industrial attributes, and is driven not only by macro factors but also by additional support from supply-demand gaps. Silver’s price center is expected to move steadily upward supported by the macro environment and supply-demand gaps [1].

include: the gold-silver ratio is already at a historical low, increasing the risk of technical correction; some speculative capital may take profits; exchanges may introduce restrictive measures (such as margin hikes) [6].

include: if the global economic recovery exceeds expectations or industrial demand adjusts, silver price may come under pressure; if geopolitical conflicts ease, safe-haven demand may decline; if the Federal Reserve adjusts the pace of interest rate cuts, precious metal prices may lose important support [5][6].

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The sharp rally in silver price has directly benefited the profitability and stock performance of silver mining companies [0][8]:

Indicator	First Majestic (AG)	Pan American (PAAS)	Spot Silver
Price at Start of 2025	$5.95	$21.37	$29.90
Latest Price	$19.85	$55.93	$91.00
Percentage Increase	+233.61%	+161.72%	+204.35%
Excess Return vs. Silver	+29.26%	-42.63%	-
Beta Coefficient	0.95	0.77	1.00

, as the purest silver mining stock, derives 57% of its revenue from silver business, making it the company with the largest exposure to silver price in the industry [8]. The company’s stock performance has significantly outperformed silver itself, with a 1-year return of 257.66%, mainly benefiting from its high leverage attributes and production expansion [8].

, as one of the world’s largest silver mining companies, acquired a controlling stake in the Juanipio silver mine through the acquisition of MAG Silver, further consolidating its leading position in the industry [8]. The company owns 10 silver-gold mines in the Americas, with rich resource reserves (452 million ounces of silver, 6.3 million ounces of gold) [8].

The high correlation between silver mining companies and silver price provides investors with clear leverage exposure [0]:

• Correlation between AG and Silver
  : 0.57 (moderate positive correlation between stock price and silver price)
• Correlation between PAAS and Silver
  : 0.61 (moderate positive correlation between stock price and silver price)
• Correlation between AG and PAAS
  : 0.75 (high positive correlation between the two companies)

This correlation means that for every 1% increase in silver price, AG’s stock price should theoretically rise by about 0.95%, and PAAS’s stock price should rise by about 0.77%. However, due to the impact of market expectations, trading sentiment, and fundamental changes, actual stock price fluctuations may deviate from this theoretical value.

According to the latest financial analysis data, both silver mining companies exhibit characteristics of

[0]:

:

• Financial Attitude Classification: Conservative (high depreciation/capital expenditure ratio)
• Debt Risk: Low Risk
• Latest Free Cash Flow: $36,849,000
• Current Ratio: 3.38
• Quick Ratio: 2.96
• Gross Profit Margin: 25.72%

:

• Financial Attitude Classification: Conservative (high depreciation/capital expenditure ratio)
• Debt Risk: Low Risk
• Latest Free Cash Flow: $400,800,000
• Current Ratio: 2.31
• Quick Ratio: 1.55
• Gross Profit Margin: 30.20%

The

of both companies mean that as investments mature, there is room for further improvement in future earnings. The relatively high current ratios indicate that the companies have sufficient short-term debt-servicing capabilities and stable financial structures.

Valuation Indicator	First Majestic (AG)	Pan American (PAAS)
Current Stock Price	$19.85	$55.93
DCF Conservative Scenario Valuation	$11.22 (-43.5%)	$46.35 (-17.1%)
DCF Base Scenario Valuation	$11.18 (-43.7%)	$50.87 (-9.0%)
DCF Optimistic Scenario Valuation	$14.15 (-28.7%)	$67.52 (+20.7%)
Weighted Average Valuation	$12.18 (-38.6%)	$54.91 (-1.8%)
WACC	14.3%	12.9%

’s current stock price is significantly higher than its DCF valuation, indicating that the market has fully priced in even overpriced the expectations of silver price rally. Under conservative and base scenarios, the stock price is about 43% lower than its intrinsic value, posing a risk of valuation correction.

’s valuation is relatively reasonable, with its current stock price close to the weighted average valuation, and there is still about 21% upside potential under the optimistic scenario [0].

: Both companies have shown continuous improvement in quarterly earnings [8]:

AG’s quarterly earnings per share rose from $0.03 in Q4 2024 to $0.07 in Q3 2025, and revenue increased from $172 million to $287 million.

PAAS’s quarterly earnings per share rose from $0.35 in Q4 2024 to $0.48 in Q3 2025, and revenue increased from $815 million to $855 million.

: Assuming silver price remains at $90 per ounce, calculated based on the industry average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of approximately $14.50-$16.00 per ounce [8], the gross profit margin of silver mining companies can reach over 80%, and net profit margin is expected to increase significantly. Taking PAAS as an example, its EBITDA margin is approximately 26.6%, which is expected to further improve as silver price rises.

Indicator	First Majestic (AG)	Pan American (PAAS)
Consensus Rating	Hold	Buy
Median Target Price	$17.50	$50.00
Current Price vs. Target Price	-11.8%	+10.6%
Target Price Range	$12.50-$22.00	$47.00-$62.00
Percentage of Buy Ratings	36.4%	50.0%
Percentage of Hold Ratings	54.5%	41.7%
Percentage of Sell Ratings	9.1%	8.3%

Analysts are relatively conservative towards both companies, and

, mainly due to its larger scale, more diversified asset portfolio, and more robust financial conditions. Although AG has greater elasticity, its overvaluation and operational risks have earned it more “Hold” ratings [8].

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is suitable for aggressive investors seeking high elasticity. As the purest silver mining stock, the company can maximize its benefits from silver price rally. However, its current valuation is overextended (far higher than DCF intrinsic value), coupled with inherent operational risks such as cost overruns and production interruptions in the mining industry, it is recommended that investors exercise caution when chasing highs and wait for better entry opportunities [8].

is more suitable for conservative investors. The company has a large scale, diversified assets, and healthy financial conditions, with relatively reasonable valuation. Against the background of long-term silver price rally, PAAS provides a lower-risk way to participate in the silver rally. The current stock price is close to the target price, but still has moderate upside potential [8].

: For investors optimistic about silver’s long-term trend, they may consider accumulating positions on dips in silver mining companies’ stock prices. Both AG and PAAS can be used as leveraged exposure tools to silver price, and it is recommended to allocate based on personal risk preferences.

: Given that PAAS has more attractive valuation compared to AG, and PAAS has a lower Beta and more diversified asset portfolio, relative value investors may consider a pair trade of going long on PAAS and shorting AG.

: Considering the high volatility of silver price, investors can rotate between silver and silver mining companies, switching between silver futures/ETFs and silver mining stocks to optimize risk-return characteristics.

: Both silver and silver mining stocks are currently in a severe overbought state, with high risk of technical correction. If the gold-silver ratio rebounds to historical average levels, silver may face significant adjustment pressure.

: AG’s current valuation is significantly higher than its DCF intrinsic value, posing a risk of valuation bubble. If silver price fails to meet expectations, the stock price may correct sharply.

: Mining companies face operational risks such as changes in geological conditions, tightening environmental regulations, and labor disputes, which may affect production volume and costs.

: If the Federal Reserve slows the pace of interest rate cuts or geopolitical conflicts ease, precious metal prices may lose important support.

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Spot silver price broke through $90 to hit an all-time high, the result of the combined effects of multiple factors including macroeconomic and financial factors, geopolitical risks, structural supply-demand imbalance, industrial demand growth, and rising investment demand. These driving factors are unlikely to reverse in the short term, and silver’s price center is expected to continue moving upward supported by the macro environment and supply-demand gaps.

For silver mining companies, the rally in silver price directly improves their profitability and cash flow conditions. First Majestic Silver has achieved a sharp stock price rally relying on its high exposure to silver price, while Pan American Silver provides investors with a lower-risk way to participate in the silver rally with its more robust financial conditions and relatively reasonable valuation.

When investing in silver mining stocks, investors should fully recognize that the current market is in an extreme overbought state and remain vigilant against the risk of technical correction. At the same time, investors should choose appropriate investment targets and strategies based on their own risk preferences, and manage risks while pursuing returns.

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[1] Sina Finance - “Silver Breaches $90 for the First Time, Market Value Surpasses $5 Trillion” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-14/doc-inhhfvyv8474542.shtml)

[2] 21st Century Business Herald - “Silver Breaches $90 for the First Time, Market Value Surpasses $5 Trillion” (https://m.sohu.com/a/975874139_121255906)

[3] FastBull - “Silver Price Breaches $90 for the First Time, Gold Also Rises” (https://m.fastbull.com/cn/news-detail/4365603_1)

[4] Forbes -"