In-Depth Analysis of the Impact of China's Position as the World's Second-Largest Import Market on A-Shares Investments

Based on the above data and analysis, I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive research report.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 14, 2026, China’s total import and export value of goods trade in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years [1]. Among them,

[2]. This marks that China has remained the world’s second-largest import market for 17 consecutive years [1][2].

From the perspective of import structure, 2025 presents the following characteristics:

• Mechanical and electrical products
  : Imports exceeded 7.4 trillion yuan, up 5.7%, accounting for about 40% of total imports
• Agricultural products
  : Imports reached nearly 1.5 trillion yuan; the customs granted new access to 190 types of agricultural and food products from 65 countries and regions
• Commodities
  : Imports reached nearly 3 billion tons, up 1.1%
• Imports maintained year-on-year growth for 7 consecutive months starting from June, with the growth rate accelerating to 4.4% in December

It is worth noting that Wang Jun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, pointed out that the decline in international market prices of some commodities (such as crude oil and iron ore prices falling by about 10%) dragged down the overall import growth rate by about 1.4 percentage points. Excluding price factors, the actual growth of import volume is more impressive.

: Wang Jun clearly stated, “Some countries have politicized economic and trade issues and restricted exports of high-tech products to China for various reasons; otherwise, we would import more” [1][2]. This statement reveals the core contradiction in the current international trade pattern.

From an investment perspective, restrictions on high-tech product imports are mainly reflected in the following sectors:

Sector	Degree of Import Restriction	Domestic Substitution Rate	Target Substitution Rate
Semiconductor Equipment	Extremely High	15-25%	50-75%
High-End Lithography Machines	Extremely Restrictive	<1%	10-15%
Advanced Process Chips	Strictly Restricted	30-35%	50%+
Industrial Software	High-End Restricted	40-45%	70%+

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: Restrictions on high-tech product imports are not a risk, but the most certain investment opportunity for the A-share technology sector [3].

1. Policy Support Reaches a Historical Peak
   • The 15th Five-Year Plan clearly lists industrial chain security as the top priority
   • The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund continues to inject capital (the scale of the second phase exceeds 200 billion yuan)
   • The Central Economic Work Conference listed “expanding domestic demand” as the top of the eight major tasks
   • Special policies support import substitution of key equipment, technologies and components

2. Rigid Growth in Market Demand
   • China accounts for 33.2% of the global semiconductor equipment market and remains the world’s largest single market [3]
   • The AI computing power revolution has driven a surge in demand for memory
   • Downstream applications such as new energy vehicles and 5G base stations continue to expand

3. Accelerated Technological Breakthroughs
   • In the first three quarters of 2025, the combined revenue of the eight leading companies in the semiconductor equipment industry reached 51.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%
   • Net profit attributable to parent companies was 9.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9% [3]
   • Mass production breakthroughs have been achieved in etching equipment, thin film deposition, CMP and other links

Indicator	Value	Historical Percentile
Semiconductor Equipment PE (TTM)	91.47x	75.56%
AI Concept PE	120x+	Running at a High Level
Software Sector PE	85x	Mid-Range
Communication Equipment PE	55x	Relatively Reasonable

:

• The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) has seen a net inflow of over 2.8 billion yuan in the past 20 days, with its scale exceeding 10 billion yuan
• The sector presents dual advantages of “clear catalysts + high valuation cost performance”
• The current valuation percentile is lower than other mainstream semiconductor indices [3]

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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│           Analysis of Localization Rate of Front-End Semiconductor Equipment                     │
├─────────────┬────────────┬─────────────┬──────────────┤
│    Equipment     │  Localization Rate  │  Major Players   │   Substitution Potential   │
├─────────────┼────────────┼─────────────┼──────────────┤
│  Lithography Machine     │   <1%      │  Shanghai Microelectronics (SMEE) │    Extremely Large      │
│  Etching Equipment   │  10-20%    │  AMEC, NAURA │    Very Large      │
│  Thin Film Deposition   │  10-30%    │  Tusheng Technology, ACM Research │    Very Large      │
│  CMP Polishing    │  20-30%    │  Haina Technology (Hua Hai Qing Ke)   │    Large      │
│  Heat Treatment     │  30-40%    │  NAURA Technology Group   │    Large      │
│  Cleaning Equipment   │  20-30%    │  ACM Research, ToPure Technology │    Large      │
│  Testing Equipment   │   <5%      │  Jingce Electronics, Zhongke │    Extremely Large      │
└─────────────┴────────────┴─────────────┴──────────────┘

1. Dual Drivers of Memory Capacity Expansion + Advanced Process
   • ChangXin Memory Technologies’ IPO application has been accepted, with plans to raise 34.5 billion yuan for memory manufacturing [3]
   • Samsung and SK Hynix’s DRAM quotations will rise by 60-70% in Q1
   • It is expected that the contract prices of DRAM and NAND will rise by 55-60% and 33-38% respectively in Q1 2026 [3]

2. Domestic Equipment Enters the Harvest Period
   • NAURA: Platform-based leader, covering etching, PVD, and CVD
   • AMEC: CCP etching machines have entered international advanced processes
   • Tusheng Technology: PECVD equipment leads domestically

: On January 7, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of dichlorosilane originating from Japan, directly accelerating the domestic substitution process of photoresist [4].

Company	Technological Breakthrough	Market Position
Toneng New Materials	Mass production of KrF/ArF photoresist	Domestic Leader
Nanda Optoelectronics	14nm verification of ArF photoresist	Technology Leader
Shanghai Xinyang	R&D on EUV photoresist	Future Layout

:

• The domestic market share of KrF photoresist is expected to exceed 50%
• The process from verification to mass supply of ArF photoresist is accelerating
• The proportion of domestic photoresist procurement is expected to rise to 40% in Q1 2026

                    ┌──────────────────────┐
                    │   Main Line of Domestic Substitution Investments   │
                    └──────────┬───────────┘
                               │
        ┌──────────────────────┼──────────────────────┐
        │                      │                      │
        ▼                      ▼                      ▼
  ┌──────────┐          ┌──────────┐          ┌──────────┐
  │Semiconductor Equipment│          │Semiconductor Materials│          │  Software &   │
  │ High Certainty │          │  Accelerated Breakthrough │          │Industrial Software  │
  └────┬─────┘          └────┬─────┘          └────┬─────┘
       │                     │                     │
  NAURA, AMEC         Toneng, Nanda        Yonyou, Kingsoft Office
  Tusheng, Haina        Optoelectronics, Shanghai Xinyang          Zhongwang
       │                     │                     │
       └─────────────────────┼─────────────────────┘
                             │
                    ┌────────┴────────┐
                    │  Policy + Technology + Market  │
                    │   Triple Resonance       │
                    └─────────────────┘

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Time Horizon	Strategy Focus	Expected Return	Risk Level
Short-Term (1-3 Months)	Focus on Leading Blue-Chip Stocks	15-20%	Low
Mid-Term (3-6 Months)	Expand to Second-Tier Growth Stocks	30-40%	Medium
Long-Term (6-12 Months)	Full Industrial Chain Layout	50-80%	Medium-High

(Priority on Certainty):

• NAURA (002371.SZ)
  : Platform-based equipment leader
• AMEC (688012.SH)
  : Internationally leading etching equipment provider
• Haina Technology (688120.SH)
  : Main force in domestic CMP equipment

(Priority on Flexibility):

• Toneng New Materials (603650.SH)
  : Photoresist leader
• Nanda Optoelectronics (300346.SZ)
  : Breakthrough in ArF photoresist
• Anji Technology (688019.SH)
  : Leader in CMP polishing slurry

(Risk Diversification):

• Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516/561980)
  : Sector increase exceeds 5%, scale exceeds 10 billion yuan [3]

1. Valuation Correction Risk
   : Pay attention to short-term corrections after cumulative large increases
2. Technological Progress Falling Short of Expectations
   : Uncertainty exists in advanced process breakthroughs
3. Capital Expenditure Fluctuations
   : Memory capacity expansion progress may affect equipment demand
4. Changes in International Policies
   : Geopolitical factors may affect the supply chain

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1. Strategic Significance of Import Market Position
   : China has been the world’s second-largest import market for 17 consecutive years; the 18.48 trillion yuan import volume is not only a bargaining chip for negotiations but also provides huge market space for domestic substitution.

2. Dual Impact of Restrictions on High-Tech Product Imports
   : In the short term, it causes supply pressure, but in the medium to long term, it accelerates the domestic substitution process, creating historic development opportunities for local enterprises.

3. Implications for A-Shares Investments
   :
   • Semiconductor equipment is one of the most certain investment directions during the 15th Five-Year Plan period
   • The triple resonance of policy, technology and market has opened the investment window
   • There is still room for valuation improvement; it is recommended to accumulate on dips

• Localization Rate of Semiconductor Equipment
  : Expected to rise from the current 15-25% to 22-30%
• Global Semiconductor Equipment Market
  : Expected to reach 145 billion USD in 2026, with China’s market share expected to rebound
• Policy Support
  : More industrial funds, tax incentives, and R&D subsidy policies are expected to be implemented

Figure 1: Analysis of China’s Import Scale Trend and Tech Investment Drivers

Figure 2: Analysis of Domestic Substitution Investment Strategies and Localization Rates

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[1] Xinhua News Agency - Exceeding 45 Trillion Yuan for the First Time! China’s Imports and Exports Maintain Growth for 9 Consecutive Years in 2025 (http://news.china.com.cn/2026-01/14/content_118278596.shtml)

[2] Sohu - China Remains the World’s Second-Largest Import Market for 17 Consecutive Years, General Administration of Customs (https://m.sohu.com/a/975884088_313745)

[3] Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute - Resonance of Memory Capacity Expansion and Independent Controllability, Broad Space for Domestic Substitution (https://pic-test-gjmetal-1324067834.cos.ap-shanghai.myqcloud.com/newsv2/c873e2fd094646bba0d9bf9e9293c01b20251219184034.pdf)

[4] Sina Finance - Independent Controllability of Semiconductor Equipment May Be One of the Most Certain Trends (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-07/doc-inhfmycx7682090.shtml)