In-Depth Analysis of the Impact of China's Sustained Trade Surplus Expansion on A-Share Market Investments

Based on the above in-depth analysis, I now provide you with a complete report on the impact of China’s sustained trade surplus expansion on A-Share market investments.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s goods trade surplus reached

in 2024, approaching the trillion-dollar mark [1][2]. The single-month trade surplus in December 2024 exceeded $100 billion, reaching , maintaining a high-level operation for consecutive months [1]. This data indicates:

• China’s export competitiveness continues to strengthen, and its position as the world’s largest goods trading nation is more solidified
• Net exports contribute significantly to GDP growth, with the cumulative year-on-year contribution of goods and services net exports to GDP reaching
  29%
  in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]
• External demand has become an important engine supporting China’s economic growth

In 2024, China’s exports showed significant structural changes:

Export Category	2024 Performance	Share of Total Exports
Mechanical and Electrical Products	Export value of $2.1255 trillion, up 5.9% YoY	59.4% [4]
Integrated Circuits	Export value of $159.5 billion, up 17.4% YoY	Became the single commodity with the highest export value
Automobiles	6.407 million units exported, up 22.8% YoY	-
Ships	Exports up 50.3% YoY	-
Home Appliances	Export value of RMB 712.2 billion, up 15.4% YoY	-

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The expansion of trade surplus directly benefits export-oriented enterprises, mainly reflected in:

• Revenue Growth
  : Increased overseas orders drive higher corporate revenue
• Economies of Scale
  : Volume growth in exports spreads unit costs, improving gross profit margins
• Improved Cash Flow
  : Export payments are relatively stable, improving corporate capital conditions

China’s exports are transforming from the “old three” (garments, furniture, home appliances) to the “new three” (electric vehicles, photovoltaics, lithium batteries), and now to high-tech products represented by

[3][7]. This transformation brings:

• Improved industrial chain value, enhanced corporate profitability
• Construction of technological barriers, consolidated competitive advantages of leading enterprises
• Expanded market share, improved global pricing power

---

:

• The global shipbuilding industry remains prosperous, with China’s shipbuilding industry receiving over
  50%
  of global orders [8]
• China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited received 154 civilian ship orders totaling 12.72 million deadweight tons in 2024, with outstanding orders reaching 24.61 million deadweight tons [9]
• Ship exports grew by over
  50%
  YoY, with the industry in a stage of both volume and price increases

:

Company	Ticker	Core Advantages
China State Shipbuilding	600150.SH	Dual-driven by military and civilian ships, with the largest outstanding orders in the industry
CIMC Group	000039.SZ	Global port machinery leader, offshore engineering equipment leader [10]
ZPMC	600320.SH	Global port machinery market share leader for 26 consecutive years [11]

:

• China’s automobile exports reached 6.407 million units in 2024, up
  22.8%
  YoY, becoming the world’s largest automobile exporter [5]
• New energy vehicle exports grew faster, with electric passenger vehicle exports up
  22.3%
  YoY [12]
• Overseas factory construction is accelerating, with companies like BYD and Great Wall laying out production capacity in Southeast Asia and Europe

:

Company	Ticker	Core Advantages
BYD	002594.SZ	Global top seller of new energy vehicles, with a rapid increase in overseas revenue share
SAIC Motor	600104.SH	Strong performance of MG brand in the European market

:

• China’s integrated circuit exports reached $159.5 billion in 2024, up
  17.4%
  YoY, becoming the single commodity with the highest export value for the first time [5]
• The global semiconductor market is expected to maintain an
  11%
  growth rate in 2025, driven by emerging applications such as AI and intelligent vehicles [13]
• Domestic substitution is accelerating, with domestic wafer fabs expanding production capacity rapidly, with an estimated investment of approximately
  $48.4 billion
  by the first three quarters of 2025 to expand capacity [14]

:

Company	Ticker	Core Advantages
SMIC	688981.SH	Domestic wafer foundry leader, with rapid expansion of mature process capacity
JCET Group	600584.SH	Leading advanced packaging technology, the world’s third largest packaging and testing factory
NAURA Technology Group	002371.SZ	Core target for domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment

:

• Home appliance exports grew by
  15.4%
  YoY in 2024, with overseas revenue accounting for over
  40%
  of total revenue for major home appliance giants [6]
• China’s white goods production capacity accounts for
  65.5%
  of the global total, with core components compressors and motors accounting for
  95%
  and
  87%
  of global production respectively [15]
• Companies like Midea and Haier achieve localized operations through overseas factory construction and brand acquisitions

:

Company	Ticker	2024 Overseas Revenue	Overseas Revenue Share
Midea Group	000333.SZ	Approximately RMB 169 billion	41.52% [16]
Haier Smart Home	600690.SH	RMB 142.9 billion	52% [16]

:

• From January to September 2025, China’s energy storage export orders reached
  214.7 GWh
  , up
  131.75%
  YoY [17]
• Europe, Australia, and the Middle East are the main export destinations, with sustained demand growth
• Sungrow’s energy storage revenue accounts for
  41%
  of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of
  39.9%
  [18]

:

Company	Ticker	Core Advantages
CATL	300750.SZ	Global leader in power batteries, with overseas orders of 53.51 GWh [17]
Sungrow Power Supply	300274.SZ	Second largest global energy storage system provider, with overseas revenue accounting for 58.4% [18]

---

• Focus on leading enterprises with leading global market share and brand premium capabilities
• Prioritize allocation to enterprises with improved overseas production capacity layout and high supply chain localization
• Recommendations: Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, China State Shipbuilding

• Focus on key links of domestic substitution such as semiconductor equipment, materials, and packaging and testing
• Focus on segment leaders with technological breakthrough capabilities and policy support
• Recommendations: NAURA Technology Group, SMIC, JCET Group

• Allocate to export-advantaged enterprises such as energy storage, power batteries, and photovoltaic modules
• Focus on enterprises with sufficient overseas orders and reasonable production capacity layout
• Recommendations: CATL, Sungrow Power Supply, JinkoSolar

Risk Type	Impact Level	Key Focus Areas
Tariff Policy	High	Need to pay attention to the direction of China-related tariff policies during the Trump 2.0 era [3]
Geopolitics	High	Uncertain factors such as China-US relations and EU trade restrictions
Exchange Rate Fluctuations	Medium	RMB appreciation may erode profits of export enterprises
Demand Slowdown	Medium	Risk of economic recession in Europe and the US may affect external demand
Overcapacity	Medium	Insufficient domestic demand coupled with supply pressure, need to pay attention to industry integration

• Position Allocation
  : The overall allocation ratio of export-oriented industries is recommended to be controlled at
  25%-35%
  of the portfolio
• Target Selection
  : Optimize targets with overseas revenue accounting for
  30%-50%
  , technological barriers, and reasonable valuation
• Diversification Strategy
  : Diversify allocation across industries and regions to avoid single market dependence
• Dynamic Adjustment
  : Closely monitor changes in trade policies and adjust holdings in a timely manner

---

The continuous expansion of China’s trade surplus reflects the improvement of export competitiveness and the optimization of industrial structure, forming a systemic positive for the A-share market.

and other export-advantaged industries will directly benefit from profit growth brought by the expansion of the trade surplus.

In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended that investors grasp three main themes:

, , and , focusing on allocating industry leaders with global competitiveness, improved overseas layout, and high technological barriers. At the same time, it is necessary to closely monitor risk factors such as , and do a good job in portfolio risk management.

From a long-term perspective, China’s transformation from “product going global” to “industry going global” and “brand going global” will bring sustained growth momentum for export-oriented enterprises, and the medium- and long-term investment value of relevant A-share targets is worthy of expectation.

---

[1] 2024 China Import and Export "Report Card": Joys and Worries of a Trillion-Dollar Surplus - TMTpost

[2] 2024 China’s Import and Export Scale Hits a New Historical High - Securities Times

[3] 2026 China Economic and Financial Outlook Report - Bank of China

[4] China Export New Momentum and Enterprise Confidence Index Report - KPMG

[5] 2024 China’s Import and Export Scale Hits a New Historical High - Securities Times

[6] 2025 Home Appliance Industry Research Report - Lianhe Credit Rating

[7] From Export to Going Global: New Driver of China’s Economic Development - Macquarie Securities

[8] Sustainability Issues of China’s Photovoltaic Industry Chain Going Global in an All-Round Way on the Agenda - Securities Times

[9] China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited 2024 Annual Report

[10] Significant Improvement in Operating Performance: Company is a Leader in Global Logistics and Energy Equipment Sector - Guojin Securities

[11] Global Port Machinery Leader + Offshore Engineering Equipment Leader - Zheshang Securities

[12] China Export New Momentum and Enterprise Confidence Index Report - KPMG

[13] China’s Integrated Circuit Industry Had a Good Start in the First Quarter, with Active Investment and Mergers and Acquisitions - Securities Times

[14] Integrated Circuits: New Round of Export Restrictions, Structural Contradictions and Cyclical Recovery Coexist Under Self-Reliance - Zhongzheng Pengyuan

[15] 2025 China Home Appliance Going Global: No High-End, No Way Out - ChinaVenture

[16] Home Appliance Giants Under "Extreme Stress Test", Emerging Markets First Moves to Break Through - Sina Finance

[17] Overseas Orders Exceed 30 GWh in September! 2025 First Three Quarters China Energy Storage Going Global Report Card Released

[18] Is There Still a Highlight for Sungrow After Valuation Re-Rating? - Weikehao