Analysis of the Strong Performance of Pony Testing (300887) Driven by the Commercial Space Concept

This analysis is based on reports from Cailianshe and Securities Times Network [1][2], published between January 8 and 14, 2026. As a third-party testing and certification service provider listed on the ChiNext Board, Pony Testing (300887.SZ) has recently attracted high market attention due to the surge of the commercial space concept. The cumulative deviation of the company’s daily closing price increase reached +100% within 10 trading days, which has been identified by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange as a ‘severe abnormal fluctuation in stock trading’ [2]. As of January 8, 2026, the company’s stock closed at RMB 15.97 per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 8.715 billion, doubling its stock price within half a month [1][2].

The company’s main business covers the testing and certification service sector. In recent years, it has actively expanded into emerging testing markets such as biomedicine, new energy vehicles, and special industries (including commercial space). Although the company has obtained qualifications for spacecraft environment and reliability testing, its commercial space business is still in the market development stage and has not yet made significant performance contributions [1].

The commercial space sector is the main catalyst for Pony Testing’s current rally. According to a report from Securities Times [1], the commercial space concept has been on a continuous uptrend since November 24, 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 46% in one and a half months. There are 27 stocks in the sector that have doubled in price, 8 of which have risen by more than 200%. On January 7, 2026, Jianyuan Technology’s project of a large and medium-sized liquid launch vehicle assembly, testing, and recovery reuse base officially broke ground in Hangzhou. As China’s first large-scale manufacturing and production base focusing on sea-based recoverable and reusable rockets, it further ignited the market’s investment enthusiasm for the commercial space sector [1].

From a policy perspective, CITIC Construction Investment Securities analysis indicates [1] that the key to the success of commercial space lies in the collaborative drive of policy, technology, and business models. Compared with mature overseas markets, the development of China’s commercial space sector requires enhanced legislative and procurement support in terms of policies. Since 2024, commercial space has been included in strategic emerging industries, and policy support has been continuously increased, providing a favorable development environment for related enterprises. Commercial space concept stocks such as Changelight, HiLanX, Aerospace Hongtu have successively hit 20% daily limits, while Goldwind Science & Technology has even secured three consecutive daily limits, sustaining the upward momentum of market sentiment [1].

Pony Testing has clearly disclosed in interactive platforms and announcements that it has one-stop comprehensive service capabilities such as reliability test program design and formulation, product failure analysis and diagnosis. The company has complete qualifications for overall testing, a full range of test service items, and advanced test equipment, with customers covering special industries such as aviation, aerospace, shipping, ordnance, automobiles, and electronics [1][3]. Some of the company’s environment and reliability test standards for spacecraft and supporting equipment have obtained qualification recognition, laying a solid foundation for serving commercial space customers. This qualification advantage has given the company certain competitive barriers in the commercial space testing sub-sector, and it has been classified by the market as an ‘authentic concept’ commercial space target [1].

From a technical perspective, Pony Testing’s recent performance shows typical characteristics of a strong stock. The company hit the daily trading limit 3 times within 4 trading days (a ‘3 daily limits in 4 days’ pattern), and closed with another 20% daily limit on January 8, 2026 [2]. Since the rally with daily limits started on December 24, 2025, the stock price has risen by more than 100% in just half a month, completely breaking away from the previous consolidation range. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s trading rules, the cumulative deviation of the daily closing price increase reached +100% in 10 consecutive trading days from December 24, 2025 to January 8, 2026, triggering the criteria for ‘severe abnormal fluctuation in stock trading’ [2].

Technical Indicator	Value/Status	Risk Level
10-day Cumulative Price Increase Deviation	+100%	Severe Abnormal Fluctuation
Half-month Price Increase	~100%+	Extreme Deviation
Closing Price (Jan 8)	RMB 15.97	Short-term High
Market Capitalization	RMB 8.715 Billion	Overvalued

From the perspective of price ranges, the current stock price has broken away from fundamental support and entered a high-risk area. The RMB 14-16 range is a recent intensive area of daily limits, forming an important short-term support; while the RMB 18-20 range is a concentrated area of previous trapped shares, with strong resistance; the historical high of approximately RMB 19.40 constitutes a significant resistance level [1]. Considering that the company has voluntarily issued a risk warning announcement, and many popular commercial space concept stocks have issued risk warnings regarding abnormal stock price movements, market sentiment may show a turning signal [1][2].

According to the company’s 2025 annual performance forecast [1][2], Pony Testing expects a net loss attributable to parent company shareholders of RMB 200 million to RMB 250 million for the full year. Although the loss has narrowed compared to the RMB 356 million loss in the same period of 2024, the company is still in a continuous loss state. Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be a loss of RMB 211 million to RMB 261 million, which is also an improvement compared to the RMB 380 million loss in 2024. Non-recurring gains and losses are approximately RMB 11 million, and the company has recognized an impairment loss of approximately RMB 90 million on accounts receivable, other receivables, etc., which has had a certain drag on performance [2].

From a business structure analysis, the company’s performance pressure mainly stems from the following factors [1][2]: First, in terms of traditional businesses, the company has strengthened customer credit management in fields such as food and environment, and proactively reduced cooperation amounts with customers with serious overdue payments, leading to a contraction in traditional business revenue; Second, in terms of emerging business investment, the company has invested heavily in the construction of testing fields such as biomedicine, new energy vehicles, and special industries (including commercial space), and market development still requires a period of time; Third, in terms of impairment pressure, the pressure of accounts receivable recovery has led the company to recognize a credit impairment loss of approximately RMB 90 million.

: Currently, the company is in a continuous loss state, expecting a loss of over RMB 200 million in 2025, with limited signs of performance improvement. The narrowing of the loss mainly comes from the reduction in impairment losses rather than the improvement of the main business profitability. More importantly, the commercial space business has not yet made significant revenue contributions, and the short-term stock price increase is entirely driven by concept speculation, with fundamentals unable to support the current valuation level [1][2].

The positive factors driving the stock price increase mainly include: commercial space, as a strategic emerging industry, has received long-term policy support with broad industry prospects; the company has relevant spacecraft testing qualifications, with an authentic concept; the loss range has narrowed year-on-year, with expectations of marginal performance improvement; the hot sector sentiment has attracted short-term capital attention, and the 20% price limit on the ChiNext Board has amplified return expectations [1].

However, multiple risk warning signals have emerged in the market [1][2][3]: First, in its abnormal fluctuation announcement, Pony Testing clearly stated that there have been no major changes in its recent operating conditions and internal and external operating environments, reminding investors to invest rationally and pay attention to investment risks; Second, the commercial space sector has shown a collective cooling trend, and many popular stocks such as Aerospace Universe, China Satellite Communications, BDStar Navigation, and China Satellite have successively issued risk warnings regarding abnormal stock trading, clearly stating that their stock prices have deviated from fundamentals; Third, triggering severe abnormal fluctuations may lead to exchange inquiries or regulatory measures, further increasing uncertainty.

Risk Category	Specific Performance	Impact Level
Valuation Bubble	10-day price increase deviation of 100%, severe divergence from fundamentals	Extremely High
Performance Loss	Expected loss of over RMB 200 million in 2025	High
Concept Speculation	Commercial space business has not yet contributed substantial performance	High
Regulatory Risk	May face inquiries/suspension due to severe abnormal fluctuations	Medium-High
Overheated Sentiment	Multiple companies have issued risk warnings, sector sentiment may reverse	Medium

From a long-term perspective, the commercial space industry is still in a period of rapid development, with continuous increase in policy support and broad market space. If the company can successfully expand its commercial space testing business and establish stable customer resources, it is expected to gradually improve its performance fundamentals. However, this transformation process takes a long time and is difficult to be reflected in financial statements in the short term [1].

. The main basis includes: First, it has triggered the ‘severe abnormal fluctuation’ criteria, leading to a significant increase in regulatory attention [2]; Second, multiple commercial space concept stocks have voluntarily issued risk warnings, with obvious signs of overheated sector sentiment [1]; Third, the stock price has doubled in half a month, with abundant short-term profit-taking positions facing realization pressure; Fourth, fundamentals cannot support the current valuation, and a stock price correction is a high-probability event.

. The commercial space business requires a market development cycle from obtaining qualifications to forming large-scale revenue. If the company can successfully secure commercial space testing orders, it is expected to gradually improve performance and digest the current valuation bubble. However, given that short-term performance is unlikely to improve significantly, investors should maintain a cautious attitude towards the current valuation level.

The strong performance of Pony Testing (300887) is mainly driven by commercial space concept speculation, rather than substantial improvement in fundamentals. Although the company has qualifications for spacecraft environment and reliability testing, it still expects to incur a loss of over RMB 200 million in 2025, resulting in a severe divergence between its performance fundamentals and stock price. The current rally is a typical theme speculation + sentiment-driven market. The company has voluntarily issued risk warnings, and multiple commercial space concept stocks have also issued risk warnings regarding abnormal stock price movements. Market participants should clearly recognize that the short-term stock price increase has fully priced in future expectations, and investors should remain highly cautious and refrain from chasing the rally. If participating, investors should strictly control their positions and set stop-loss levels, while closely monitoring the progress of commercial space business expansion and regulatory developments.