Valuation Impact Analysis of Changchun High-Tech's GenSci098 Injection Global Licensing Transaction

Based on the latest information obtained, I provide you with a systematic analysis of the

on the company.

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According to the announcement dated December 15, 2025,

, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kinsair Pharmaceutical (a holding subsidiary of Changchun High-Tech), signed an exclusive license agreement for the GenSci098 Injection project with U.S.-based [1][2][3].

:

Payment Stage	Amount	Nature
Upfront Payment	$70 million	Non-refundable, non-deductible
Near-term Development Milestones	$50 million	Paid upon achievement of specific development milestones
Potential Milestone Payments	Up to $1.365 billion	R&D, regulatory and commercialization milestones
Sales Royalties	Over 10% of net sales	Continuously collected after product launch

[1][2]

• Licensed Subject
  : GenSci098 Injection – a humanized thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor (TSHR) antagonistic monoclonal antibody, categorized as a
  Class 1 Innovative Biotherapeutic for Treatment
  [1]
• Licensing Territory
  : Yarrow has obtained the exclusive global rights for development, manufacturing, and commercialization
  outside the Greater China region
  [1]
• Retained Rights
  : Saizeng Medical retains the rights for development and commercialization of the product in China[1]
• Indications
  : Thyroid-Associated Ophthalmopathy (TED) and Diffuse Toxic Goiter (GD)[1]

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Based on real-time market data[0]:

Indicator	Value
Current Stock Price	$103.50
Market Capitalization	$4.158 billion
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	43.31x
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	$2.39
52-Week Stock Price Range	$83.00 - $141.77

Changchun High-Tech is highly dependent on Kinsair Pharmaceutical:

• Revenue Contribution
  : Kinsair Pharmaceutical contributes approximately
  83% of total revenue
  [2]
• Profit Contribution
  : Kinsair Pharmaceutical contributes approximately
  99.5% of net profit
  [2]
• Performance Pressure
  : In the first three quarters of 2025, net profit decreased by
  58.23% year-on-year
  , and Kinsair Pharmaceutical’s own net profit dropped by nearly
  50%
  [2]

This highly concentrated business structure means that any strategic move by Kinsair Pharmaceutical will have a significant impact on the company’s valuation.

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:

1. Stock Price Performance
   : In December 2025 (the month of the transaction announcement), the stock price fell from $99.12 at the beginning of the month to $92.55 at the end of the month, a decline of
   6.63%
   , but this mainly reflects the market’s concern about the company’s overall performance decline[0].

2. Post-Announcement Response
   : The company clearly stated that “
   this will not have a material impact on the company’s short-term production and operation, financial condition, and operating results
   ”[1][2][3]. This statement is in line with the general accounting treatment principles for BD transactions — upfront payments are usually recognized after service delivery.

3. Market Expectation Gap
   : Considering the huge potential transaction amount (the $70 million upfront payment is equivalent to a certain scale of the company’s revenue), the market may not have fully priced in this long-term value yet.

Value Dimension	Analysis
Revenue Diversification	Moving from a single growth hormone business to a new stage of “ Three Pillars ” — growth hormones, innovative drugs, and R&D licensing revenue driving growth together[2]
Internationalization Breakthrough	The first outward-licensed pipeline, marking the substantial realization stage of the strategic transformation[2]
Reducing Single Dependency	Provides a new growth driver for the company to break away from excessive reliance on growth hormone revenue

In accordance with BD transaction practices in the biopharmaceutical industry, if the potential $1.485 billion milestone payment is amortized over 10 years, the discounted value is approximately

, corresponding to a potential per-share value of approximately (based on the current share capital).

The indications targeted by GenSci098 have a vast market space — North America and the Asia-Pacific region together account for

[2], laying a foundation for future sales royalty revenue.

:

Risk Type	Details
R&D Risk	New drug development features “high technology, high risk, high added value”, with a long cycle and multiple links[1]
Milestone Uncertainty	Payments are subject to specific conditions, and “there is uncertainty regarding the final payment amount”[1]
Competition Risk	There are other competing therapies in the field of thyroid ophthalmopathy and GD treatment
Execution Risk	The partner is required to “use reasonable commercial efforts to develop the product”, and there is a risk of breach of contract or discontinuation of development[1]

: Calculated based on a 30-50% success probability, the risk-adjusted net present value (NPV) of the GenSci098 project is approximately .

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Core Assumptions:
├── Success Probability: 30-50% (based on Phase II/III clinical trials)
├── Discount Rate: 10-12% (WACC for the pharmaceutical industry)
├── Peak Sales: $500 million to $1 billion per year (global market)
└── Sales Royalty Rate: 10-15%

Scenario	Probability-Weighted NPV	Per-Share Contribution	Remarks
Optimistic Scenario	$600 million - $800 million	$1.50 - $2.00	Successful clinical trials + smooth commercialization
Base Scenario	$300 million - $500 million	$0.80 - $1.20	Based on industry average success rate
Pessimistic Scenario	$100 million - $200 million	$0.30 - $0.50	Clinical trial failure or termination of cooperation

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Valuation Component	Amount (USD 100 million)	Per-Share Contribution (USD)
Existing Business (P/E 25x 2025E EPS)	35-40	87-100
GenSci098 Risk-Adjusted Value	3-5	0.80-1.20
Total Valuation Range	38-45	88-110

1. Strategic Significance of the Transaction
   : This is Changchun High-Tech’s first outward-licensed pipeline, marking a key step in its transformation from a “single growth hormone company” to a “diversified biopharmaceutical platform”[2].

2. Limited Short-Term Valuation Impact but Huge Long-Term Potential
   : The $70 million upfront payment has a small impact on current financial reports, but the
   potential $1.485 billion in milestones + sales royalties
   provides significant upside potential for long-term valuation.

3. Valuation Upside Catalysts
   :
   • Progress of GenSci098 clinical trials (especially the advancement of U.S. clinical trials)
   • News of subsequent BD collaborations
   • Stabilization and recovery of the growth hormone business

4. Risk Warning
   : Attention should be paid to the risk of clinical trial failure, uncertainty in milestone payment conditions, and the company’s high business dependence on Kinsair Pharmaceutical.

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The chart above shows:

• Upper Chart
  : Stock price trend in December 2025, with the red dashed line marking the licensing announcement date of December 15
• Lower Chart
  : Composition of potential returns from the GenSci098 licensing transaction, with total potential value exceeding $1.4 billion

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[1] Securities Times - Changchun High-Tech’s Subsidiary Signs Exclusive License Agreement for GenSci098 Injection Project (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3541505.html)

[2] Sina Finance - Breaking Away from Growth Hormone Revenue Dependence, Changchun High-Tech Also Embarks on Outward Licensing Transactions (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-17/doc-inhcazqi7464023.shtml)

[3] Sina Finance - Changchun High-Tech’s Subsidiary Signs Exclusive License Agreement for GenSci098 Injection Project (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-15/doc-inhawxxz3910485.shtml)

[0] Jinling AI - Changchun High-Tech Real-Time Market and Financial Data