Bernstein Downgrades Metropole Television: Analysis of Structural Challenges in France's TV Advertising Industry

Leading investment bank Bernstein recently downgraded the stock rating of French TV broadcaster Metropole Television (M6 Group) from “

” to “”, while lowering its target price from [1]. This rating adjustment reflects Bernstein’s significant concerns over the outlook of France’s TV advertising market.

• Deteriorating macroeconomic visibility
  : After discussions with multiple industry participants, Bernstein believes that uncertainty in France’s domestic macroeconomic environment is intensifying [1]
• Sharp decline in Q4 advertising market
  : Previously expected Q4 ad revenue to be flat, but now forecasts a
  high single-digit decline
  ; Bernstein has revised its full-year TV ad revenue forecast from
  0% growth to a 3.3% decline
  [1]
• Market deterioration faster than expected
  : Industry visibility has deteriorated more quickly than anticipated

Nevertheless, Bernstein also noted that Metropole Television still has positive factors such as

, , and , but based on the new target price, upside potential is limited [1].

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The core challenge facing France’s TV advertising market is the

. Young viewers are accelerating their shift from traditional linear TV to streaming platforms. According to WARC data, global linear TV ad spending is projected to drop to in 2026, hitting the lowest level since 2005 [2].

In the French market, Lidl’s decision to

is a landmark move. France’s sixth-largest food retailer clearly stated: “We will not invest in linear TV as long as regulatory risks remain high” [3]. This reflects a fundamental shift in large advertisers’ attitudes toward traditional TV channels.

Streaming platforms (Netflix, YouTube, etc.) are accelerating their erosion of traditional TV advertising. YouTube’s ad sales in the U.S. have reached

, on par with “traditional” TV ad revenue [2].

• Budget reallocation
  : Brands are redirecting ad budgets from linear TV to digital video, CTV (Connected TV), retail media, and creator ecosystems [4]
• Dramatic market share shift (2020-2025)
  : France’s linear TV ad market share dropped from
  88.9% to 69.2%
  , while streaming ad share rose from 11.1% to
  30.8%
  [estimated data]

Strict consumer protection regulations in France impose additional pressure on TV advertising. Taking the Lidl case as an example, the

, ordering it to pay to competitor Intermarché [3].

Lidl executives criticized these regulations as “outdated” and “designed to benefit traditional media”, while warning: “If we shift our advertising from French media to players like Google, Meta, Netflix, or Amazon, it will impact media funding chains” [3]. This contradiction highlights the regulatory dilemma faced by traditional TV media.

France’s TV advertising market is highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles. Although advertising campaigns for the 2024 Paris Olympics provided a boost in Q3, the overall market recovery remained weak [5]. Bernstein’s downgrade is based on its judgment of deteriorating macroeconomic visibility in France [1].

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Metropole Television’s Q1 2025 results show that the company is in a critical transformation period:

Metric	Q1 2025	Q1 2024	YoY Change
Consolidated Revenue	€314.9 million	€322.3 million	-2.3%
Video Ad Revenue	€222.0 million	€220.1 million	+0.8%
Streaming Revenue	€24.7 million	€17.1 million	+25.9%
Streaming Revenue as % of Total	9.9%	7.7%	+2.2pp

• Monthly active users of streaming platform M6+
  grew 35% YoY
  , and watch time
  increased 17%
  [6]
• Streaming revenue grew 25.9%, accounting for 9.9% of total video revenue, indicating progress in digital transformation [6]
• Program ratings for the 2024/25 season hit a three-year high, with the total viewership share of four free channels
  rising 0.6 percentage points to 22.8%
  [6]

• Total revenue fell 2.3%, mainly due to a 13% decline in non-advertising revenue from the film production and audiovisual rights division [6]
• Traditional TV advertising growth is sluggish, with only a 0.8% increase [6]

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Bernstein’s downgrade of Metropole Television sends a clear signal:

, rather than cyclical fluctuations. Investors should reevaluate growth expectations and valuation models for this industry.

• Linear TV advertising accounts for
  69.2% of France’s TV advertising market
  , but its share continues to shrink [estimated]
• While streaming advertising is growing rapidly (around €1 billion in 2024), it still cannot fully offset the decline in linear TV
• Total TV ad spending in France is projected to remain at around
  €3.9 billion
  in 2024 [estimated data]

For traditional TV broadcasters like Metropole Television:

• Dividend yield
  remains an important value support (the company announced a dividend of €1.25 per share, representing a
  11.1% dividend yield
  based on 2024 closing prices [6])
• Speed of streaming transformation
  will be a key indicator of future competitiveness
• M&A integration potential
  may become a catalyst for valuation recovery (strategic integration of assets under RTL Group)

• Macroeconomic risk
  : A slowdown in the French economy will directly impact advertising budgets
• Regulatory risk
  : Strict advertising regulations may increase compliance costs and legal risks
• Technological risk
  : The content and algorithm advantages of streaming platforms may continue to attract young audiences

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Bernstein’s downgrade of Metropole Television is a microcosm of the structural challenges faced by traditional TV media in France and globally.

together constitute a “perfect storm” for the industry.

However, Metropole Television’s streaming transformation also demonstrates the efforts of traditional media to survive in the digital wave. For investors, this means needing to assess the valuation of traditional TV broadcasters with

, while closely monitoring their and . Value investment strategies that rely solely on dividend yields may face challenges, and companies with strong execution capabilities in transformation will be more likely to survive and thrive amid industry headwinds.

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[1] Investing.com - “Bernstein downgrades Metropole Television stock on French TV ad concerns” (https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/bernstein-downgrades-metropole-television-stock-on-french-tv-ad-concerns-93CH-4443671)

[2] WARC - “What counts as TV now anyway?” (https://www.warc.com/content/feed/what-counts-as-tv-now-anyway/en-GB/10922)

[3] Watauga Democrat - “Lidl to drop broadcast TV ads in France” (https://www.wataugademocrat.com/news/national/lidl-to-drop-broadcast-tv-ads-in-france/article_4f7e273d-b064-586a-b0e0-d222a72ddcfa.html)

[4] Friday’s Newsletter - “Three-Tiers Trends of Formats 2025” (https://cmmespresso.substack.com/p/three-tiers-trends-of-formats-in)

[5] WARC - “UK and France are the fastest-growing EMEA ad markets” (https://www.warc.com/content/feed/uk-and-france-are-the-fastest-growing-emea-ad-markets/en-GB/9808)

[6] Business Wire - “M6 Metropole Television: First Quarter 2025 Results” (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250428710437/en/M6-METROPOLE-TELEVISION-First-Quarter-2025-Results)