Assessment of the Development Prospects and Investment Opportunities in the Elderly Care Service Industry Under Favorable Silver Economy Policies

Based on collected policy, market and investment data, here is a complete investment analysis report on the silver economy’s elderly care service industry:

The current elderly care service industry is in a period of intensive policy release, forming a multi-dimensional policy support system:

This combination of policies has established an institutional foundation for the development of the elderly care industry, providing clear development directions and financial support for the industry[1][2][3].

According to data released by the State Taxation Administration, the elderly care service industry showed strong growth in the first half of 2025:

• Community Elderly Care and Care Services
  : +30.4% YoY
• Institutional Elderly Care Services
  : +22.6% YoY
• Home-based Elderly Care Services
  : +18.0% YoY

The health consumption segment also performed strongly: mobility and hearing aid products grew by 32.2%, elderly nutritional health products by 30.1%, and health monitoring devices by 7.5%. In terms of cultural and entertainment consumption, elderly tourism grew by 26.2%, sports health services by 23.9%, and cultural and entertainment services by 20.7%[1].

China’s silver economy is in a period of rapid expansion, with market size continuing to grow:

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Elderly Care Industry Market Size (trillion yuan) and YoY Growth Rate                         │
├──────────┬──────────┬──────────────┬───────────────────────┤
│   Year   │ Market Size │   YoY Growth Rate   │        Notes          │
├──────────┼──────────┼──────────────┼───────────────────────┤
│   2018   │    6.1   │     18.2%     │                       │
│   2019   │    6.5   │     15.3%     │                       │
│   2020   │    7.1   │     22.2%     │  COVID-19 spurred home-based elderly care demand  │
│   2021   │    7.6   │     12.8%     │                       │
│   2022   │    8.2   │     10.5%     │                       │
│   2023   │    8.9   │      9.2%     │  Official statistics use 7.1 trillion yuan caliber   │
│   2024   │    9.8   │      8.9%     │                       │
│   2025E  │   10.8   │      8.2%     │  Policy-driven growth          │
│   2026E  │   11.9   │     10.1%     │  Expected accelerated growth          │
│   2027E  │   13.2   │     10.9%     │                       │
└──────────┴──────────┴──────────────┴───────────────────────┘

According to Guotai Junan Securities research, the 2023 market size of the silver economy reached 7.1 trillion yuan (official caliber). It is expected that the net annual increase of the elderly population aged 60 and above will exceed 10 million in the next 10 years, and the retirement of post-70s generations will significantly boost consumption willingness and capacity[4][5].

Despite frequent policy benefits, the industry still faces multiple structural challenges:

1. Extremely Low Industry Concentration
   : Top 30 elderly care operators account for only 8.3% of total beds, and leading enterprises lack replicable business models[6]
2. Low Institutional Occupancy Rate
   : Only 1% of people aged 65 and above live in elderly care institutions, and the average occupancy rate of elderly care institutions is about 45%
3. Mismatch in Payment Capacity
   : Significant regional differences in per capita pensions; LTCI only covers 49 pilot cities, benefiting 3.3 million people
4. Shortage of Professional Talents
   : Significant talent gaps exist in dementia care and high-end operations

Based on three dimensions: market attractiveness, industrial maturity, and growth potential, the main sub-sectors are evaluated:

• Market Growth Rate: 32.2% (highest among sub-sectors)
• Driving Factors: Accelerated population aging + growing long-term care demand + domestic substitution
• Focus Targets: Yuyue Medical (002223), Osem Electric (301187) (care robots)

• Policy Support: Technologies such as millimeter-wave radar and intelligent monitoring platforms are accelerating implementation
• Business Model Innovation: Integration of community home-based elderly care scenarios + AIoT technologies
• Focus Targets: iFLYTEK (002230) (AI-enabled elderly care), Huawei ecosystem partners

• In July 2025, the country launched the creation of integrated medical and elderly care demonstration projects, proposing the “double 65%” quantitative standard
• Institutions that have been in operation for 5+ years, with an occupancy rate of 65%+ and a proportion of disabled and dementia patients exceeding 65% will receive policy preferences
• Focus Targets: Taikang Insurance (benchmark for integrated medical and elderly care), Jinling Pharmaceutical (000919)

• Full Name: Hua-Bao CSI Elderly Care Industry ETF
• Benchmark: CSI Elderly Care Industry Index (399812)
• Fund Size: 134 million yuan (as of January 12, 2026)
• Fund Manager: Zhang Fang (return during tenure: -9.15%)

• Highest Proportion in Biomedical Sector
  : Approximately 56.2% (aligns with core elderly care consumption demand)
• Intelligent Manufacturing Penetration
  : Ecovacs and Roborock represent the direction of smart home aging adaptation transformation
• Consumption Upgrade Orientation
  : China Duty Free Group and Changbai Mountain represent elderly cultural, entertainment, and tourism demand[7][8]

The current PE of the elderly care industry index is 13.47x, at the 3.84% historical quantile, significantly lower than other mainstream indices, providing a relatively high margin of safety and valuation repair space[4][5].

1. Top Choice: Elderly Care ETF (516560)
   : One-click allocation of industry leaders, diversifies individual stock risks, and current undervaluation makes it worthy of allocation
2. Focus on Leading Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Enterprises
   : Hengrui Medicine, Changchun High-Tech, etc. have high performance certainty and benefit from the long-term aging trend
3. Focus on Incremental Smart Elderly Care
   : Ecovacs and Roborock represent the direction of smart home aging adaptation transformation

1. Rehabilitation Assistive Devices Track
   : Yuyue Medical and Osem Electric benefit from LTCI expansion and home-based elderly care demand
2. Elderly Care Finance
   : Ping An of China’s “insurance + elderly care” model has been successfully validated with clear valuation repair space
3. Emerging Tracks
   : Thematic investment opportunities such as brain-computer interface + elderly care concepts (e.g., Luyan Pharmaceutical)

• Current valuation is at a historical low,
  accumulate positions on dips
  is recommended
• Pay attention to policy catalysts (LTCI expansion, disbursement of elderly care service consumption subsidies)
• It is recommended to build positions in batches and control the position size at 10-15%

1. Policy Perspective
   : The silver economy has been elevated to a national strategy, with intensive policy releases providing institutional guarantees for industry development. Policies such as LTCI expansion and elderly care service consumption subsidies will directly address the industry’s payment-side pain points.

2. Fundamental Perspective
   : The market size of the elderly care industry continues to expand, expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2025. Sub-sectors show impressive growth rates (mobility and hearing aids: 32.2%, community elderly care: 30.4%), and the industry is in a period of rapid expansion.

3. Valuation Perspective
   : The PE of the elderly care industry index is only 13.47x, at the 3.84% historical quantile, significantly lower than indices such as Biomedical and ChiNext, providing a relatively high margin of safety.

4. Catalysts
   : Policies such as full LTCI expansion (expected to be implemented in January 2026), disbursement of elderly care service consumption subsidies, and China Development Bank’s 20 billion yuan support for the silver economy will continue to release positive signals.

The silver economy is one of the most certain industry trends in the next decade. Currently at a valuation bottom, it is recommended that investors seize the policy dividend period and strategically lay out in the elderly care service industry.

[1] Viewpoint Research Institute, 2025 Q4 Health and Elderly Care Development Report (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251217A06X9600)

[2] Health 160, Policy Push, Hospital Transformation, Cross-industry Invasion… What Happened to the Integrated Medical and Elderly Care Industry in 2025? (https://weixin.91160.com/news/kepu/29301.html)

[3] United Nations Development Programme, Financing the Silver Economy in China: Investment and Financing Opportunities from an SDG Perspective (https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2025-12/financing_the_silver_economy_in_china-empowering_an_inclusive_and_sustainable_ageing_society-cn.pdf)

[4] Xueqiu, Elderly Care Industry (SZ399812) Stock Price & Quotes (https://xueqiu.com/S/SZ399812)

[5] Xueqiu, Elderly Care Concept (BK0474) Stock Price & Quotes (https://xueqiu.com/S/BK0474)

[6] 21st Century Business Herald, Top Enterprises Account for Only 8.3% of Beds: The Elderly Care Industry Faces Breakthrough in 2026 (https://m.21jingji.com/article/20251231/herald/a366f0a63a7ac47e00e3a1c6bd5cb168.html)

[7] Sina Finance, Hua-Bao Elderly Care ETF (516560) Saw Net Redemption of 902,200 Yuan on January 12 (https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/aiassistant/etfshzj/2026-01-13/doc-inhhcntv6095900.shtml)

[8] Eastmoney, Tianjin Pushes the Silver Economy! Elderly Care ETF (516560) Rises 0.6% (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260112155712929584460)