Implications of the Record-High Margin Trading Turnover for the A-Share Market

On January 12, 2026, the A-share market’s margin trading turnover reached approximately RMB 427.2 billion, hitting a record high. This is the second time in A-share history that the turnover has exceeded the RMB 400 billion mark, with the previous occurrence being RMB 407.3 billion on October 8, 2024 [1]. Meanwhile, as of January 9, 2026, the margin balance had reached RMB 2.63 trillion, breaking the RMB 2.6 trillion mark for the first time, accounting for 2.47% of the A-share free float market capitalization, and margin trading accounted for 10.96% of A-share transaction volume [2].

From a longer-term perspective, the number of new margin trading accounts opened in 2025 reached 1.542 million, a substantial 52.9% increase compared to 1.0085 million in 2024, achieving three consecutive years of growth [2]. As of the end of 2025, the total number of margin trading accounts had exceeded 15.64 million, indicating sustained enthusiasm among investors for using leveraged tools.

The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a rare “16 consecutive upward gains” trend, setting the longest consecutive gain record in the index’s history, with a single-day increase of 1.38% on January 5, marking the largest single-day gain [3]. On January 9, 2026, the total transaction volume of the entire A-share market exceeded the RMB 3 trillion mark, the first time since September 18, 2024, and the Shanghai Composite Index stood firmly at 4100 points for the first time in a decade [3].

As an important credit trading tool in the A-share market, the expansion of margin trading funds helps enhance market liquidity and activity, injecting incremental capital into the market, hence it is called a “bull market accelerator” [2]. In the first week of 2026, the net inflow of margin trading funds reached RMB 85.779 billion, ranking fifth in A-share history for single-week inflows, indicating a trend of “accelerated entry” of leveraged funds [1].

In terms of capital flows, sectors such as semiconductors, industrial metals, and general equipment have become key destinations for margin trading inflows at the start of the year. From January 5 to 6, the top three industries in terms of net margin purchases were semiconductors (RMB 2.903 billion), industrial metals (RMB 2.285 billion), and general equipment (RMB 2.069 billion), reflecting high recognition by leveraged funds of the main themes of technological innovation and cyclical recovery [2].

Personnel from securities firm branches stated that margin trading clients showed high enthusiasm for “increasing positions” and entering the market in the first week, but they favored short-term operations and chased hot themes [1]. This phenomenon indicates that current leveraged funds are mainly “transactional” in nature, rather than long-term allocation funds. Meanwhile, the number of new A-share accounts opened in December 2025 reached 2.5967 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.55%, showing obvious signs of incremental capital entering the market [3].

Wang Zejun, an analyst at China Post Securities, pointed out that changes in the margin balance are closely related to the evolution of the A-share market since the “September 24” event in 2024. Starting from RMB 1.54 trillion in October 2024, the margin balance broke through the RMB 1.6 trillion, 1.7 trillion, and 1.8 trillion marks in approximately three months; the upward trend resumed in mid-August 2025, rising from around RMB 2 trillion to the RMB 2.5 trillion level [2].

: Strategists from Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that the current market rally is the result of resonance among multiple liquidity factors. First, “abnormal inflows” into the A500 ETF, coupled with continuous efforts from funds such as Central Huijin; second, the continuous appreciation of the RMB reflects, to a certain extent, the restoration of international capital’s confidence in China; third, following AI, strong themes such as price increase cues, commercial aerospace, and brain-computer interfaces are relatively active, activating capital enthusiasm [1].

: Zhao Qixin, founder of Yingtian Asset Management, stated that the shift of nearly RMB 30 trillion in excess savings formed in recent years to other markets is an inevitable trend. With the further decline in risk-free interest rates and the emergence of profit-making effects in China’s capital market, forward-looking groups have begun to show obvious signs of shifting savings to the equity market [3].

: Guo Shiliang, a financial commentator, pointed out that although this round of A-share market has recorded 16 consecutive gains, the market overrelies on sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and rare metals, or leading companies in related industries, and it is still a structural bull market. Sectors such as consumer goods, securities firms, and real estate have performed weakly, essentially missing out on the bull market rally [3].

: Personnel from securities firm branches stated that although margin trading clients are highly enthusiastic, they favor short-term operations and chase hot themes [1]. This short-term oriented leveraged behavior may increase market volatility.

: Strategists from Soochow Securities reminded that focus should be placed on seasonal volume contraction before the Spring Festival, which is a short-term risk point [1]. By analogy to the market adjustment caused by policy tightening before the consecutive gains in 2006, this round of consecutive gains was also preceded by impacts such as the AI bubble theory and disturbances from Sino-US tariff games [1].

Institution	Core View
Soochow Securities	There are no obvious short-term risks, overall risks are controllable, and attention should be paid to seasonal volume contraction before the Spring Festival
Kaiyuan Securities	Resonance of multiple liquidity factors, coupled with RMB appreciation and expectations of a market rally, boosts the market
Guosen Securities	There is still room for the spring market to unfold further; even if there are periodic fluctuations, it may still be a good opportunity for positioning
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities	There are no major downward risks in the spring, only a consolidation after the short-term market has fully unfolded
China Post Securities	The margin trading market will shift from a “high-speed expansion phase” to a “high-quality growth phase” in 2026, with the balance expected to range between RMB 2.6 trillion and 3.2 trillion [2]

: Guosen Securities believes that technology remains the medium-to-long-term market theme, and recommends focusing on sub-sectors where AI applications are being implemented [1].

: Liu Xiaobo, a financial commentator, stated that in the second half of 2026, as the macroeconomy gradually stabilizes, anti-involution policies are deeply promoted, and the re-inflation process begins, many cyclical industries will see profit recovery. He proposed an investment strategy of “embrace technology, respect traditional established sectors” [3].

: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment advisor at Jufeng Investment, reminded that against the backdrop of accelerated entry of leveraged funds, performance across various sectors has diverged significantly. While rationally seizing structural opportunities, investors should pay attention to preventing risks brought by sector rotation and avoid blindly chasing hot trends. Priority should be given to high-quality companies with solid fundamentals, low valuations, and high growth potential [2].

The record-high margin trading turnover sends the following positive signals:

1. Increased Market Confidence
   : Investor risk appetite has rebounded significantly, and optimistic expectations for the market outlook have driven the accelerated entry of leveraged funds
2. Adequate Liquidity
   : Multiple capital sources have formed a resonance, including household deposit shifts, ETF capital inflows, and foreign capital inflows
3. Emerging Structural Opportunities
   : The themes of technological growth and cyclical recovery have gained recognition from capital

, but it cannot be simply judged as a full reversal:

• Positive Factors
  : Margin balance hitting record highs repeatedly, continuous growth in new account openings, transaction volume exceeding RMB 3 trillion, 16 consecutive gains in the Shanghai Composite Index
• Constraining Factors
  : Leveraged funds favoring short-term operations, obvious divergence in sector rotation, disturbances from seasonal factors
• Institutional Consensus
  : There is still room for the spring market to unfold, but short-term volatility risks need to be watched

1. Moderately Optimistic but Rational
   : Recognize the current market recovery trend, but remain vigilant against short-term volatility risks
2. Focus on Structural Opportunities
   : Technological growth remains the main theme; pay phased attention to low-valuation sectors such as real estate and non-bank finance
3. Control Leverage Risks
   : When using margin trading tools, operate prudently based on your own risk tolerance and avoid over-leveraging
4. Emphasize Fundamentals
   : Allocate to high-quality companies with solid fundamentals, favorable valuations, and growth potential

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[1] Securities Times Network - “Scavenging Over RMB 80 Billion! Margin Trading Funds Accelerate Inflows in the First Week of the Year!” (2026-01-12)
https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3586427.html

[2] Securities Times Network - “2025 Margin Trading Data Released! New Accounts Exceed 1.54 Million, Leveraged Funds Accelerate Entry!” (2026-01-12)
https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3585629.html

[3] The Paper - “4100 Points, 16 Consecutive Gains, Is the Spring Market Here?” (2026-01-13)
https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32367205

[4] China Economic Net - “Margin Balance Grows Significantly at the Start of 2026” (2026-01-08)
http://m.ce.cn/gp/gd/202601/t20260108_2688419.shtml

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Report Generation Date: January 13, 2026
Data Sources: Jinling AI Financial Database, Public Market Information