Analysis of the Differentiation Pattern and Allocation Strategy of the A-Share Market in January 2026

Based on the latest market data and institutional views, I provide you with a systematic analysis of the current market differentiation pattern and allocation strategy.

As of noon on January 13, 2026, the three major A-Share indices adjusted collectively: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.31%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.83%[1]. However, the differentiation at the sector level far exceeded the index performance:

Notably, in the AI Applications sector, Gravity Media achieved 6 daily limits in 7 days, while Visual China and Leo Group hit daily limits; in the AI Medical sector, Northgene and Hongbo Pharmaceutical hit daily limits firmly[1]. In stark contrast, in the Commercial Spaceflight sector, China Rocket and Aerospace Science and Technology hit daily limit downs, and Changguang Huaxin fell over 9%.

From the perspective of capital flow, the current market shows typical characteristics of

• Capital flows out of high-position sectors
  : The Commercial Spaceflight sector has surged over 100% since November 24, 2025, with significant cumulative correction pressure[2]
• Capital flows into low-position sectors
  : Low-position sectors such as AI Applications, Server Power Supply, and Optical Communication have enhanced capital absorption capacity[3]
• Trading volume continues to expand
  : On January 12, the turnover of the two markets reached 3.64 trillion yuan, hitting a record high, indicating active position adjustment by on-site funds[2]

Wang Zheng, General Manager of Shangyi Fund, pointed out: “The current expansion of trading volume is mainly due to position adjustment by on-site funds; the support from incremental funds still needs further verification”[2].

The strong performance of the AI Applications sector stems from the resonance of multiple catalytic factors:

1. GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) Commercialization
   : Musk announced the open-sourcing of the X platform’s content recommendation algorithm, and the market interprets this as “Musk is also set to enter the GEO field”[3]. Huaxin Securities pointed out that the GEO concept enables AI to drive the expansion of the advertising market and reshape the advertising competition pattern.

2. Accelerated Commercialization of Domestic and International Large Models
   : In January 2026, Zhipu and MiniMax listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange successively, forming a dual-driver pattern of AI applications and domestic demand.

3. Spring Festival Gala Traffic Dividend Expectation
   : Combined with the traditional traffic peak season and AI marketing transformation, the digital marketing track has attracted much attention.

4. Technology Implementation Verification
   : Applications in fields such as AI+Medical, AI+Finance, and AI+Programming are gradually being implemented, enhancing expectations of commercialization realization.

The adjustment of the Commercial Spaceflight sector is an inevitable result of short-term risk release and valuation digestion:

1. Excessive short-term gains
   : As of January 12, 2026, the Wind Commercial Spaceflight Theme Index has surged 103.17% since November 24, 2025[2], accumulating huge profit-taking positions.

2. Valuation deviates from fundamentals
   : Multiple concept companies have issued risk warnings. The controlling shareholder of Junda Co., Ltd. plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3%; Aerospace Power stated that its main business does not involve commercial spaceflight; Zaisheng Technology said that there are no outstanding orders for “high-silica fiber products” in the aerospace field[1].

3. Shift from sentiment-driven to value regression
   : Wang Zheng of Shangyi Fund believes that the Commercial Spaceflight sector will most likely shift from short-term sentiment-driven to value regression in the future, entering a stage of shock digestion and structural differentiation[2].

4. Capital high-low switching
   : Short-term funds choose to take profits and switch to more attractively valued sectors such as AI Applications.

Based on the current market differentiation pattern and the latest institutional views, it is recommended that investors adjust their allocation strategies from the following dimensions:

┌───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Recommended Allocation Ratio Adjustments               │
├───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  Sector Category          │  Short-term (1-2 weeks)  │  Medium-term (1-3 months)  │ Operation Suggestions │
├───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  AI Applications (Low-position) │     ↑↑             │      ↑                     │ Buy on dips           │
│  AI Medical               │      ↑                 │      ↑                     │ Performance-driven     │
│  Commercial Spaceflight (Core) │      ↓             │      → (Hold)              │ Select leading targets │
│  Commercial Spaceflight (Concept) │     ↓↓         │      ↓                     │ Avoid risks           │
│  Semiconductors (Performance Confirmed) │      →     │      ↑                     │ Buy on dips           │
│  Dividend Assets          │      ↑                 │      →                     │ Defensive allocation   │
└───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

• Digital Marketing/GEO Concept
  : Focus on targets with verified commercialization capabilities such as Gravity Media, BlueFocus, and Leo Group[3]
• AI Programming
  : Zhongcheng Technology hit the 30% daily limit for 2 consecutive days, showing high capital recognition
• AI Office/Enterprise Services
  : Hand Enterprise Solutions and Digiwin Software have valuation repair potential after long-term consolidation[3]

Li Shuai, Fund Manager of the China Europe Semiconductor Industry Stock Initiation Fund, pointed out that the valuation of commercial spaceflight should be based on three dimensions: “technical barriers, order scale, application implementation progress”[2]. Suggestions:

• Focus on core targets
  : Zhongke Xingtu received net buying of 957 million yuan from institutional seats; Xingtu Measurement and Control launched the “Star Eye” space sensing constellation plan, planning to launch 156 satellites[1]
• Avoid concept speculation
  : Be cautious of “pseudo-commercial spaceflight” targets with unclear downstream application scenarios
• Wait for valuation digestion
  : It is not recommended to chase highs in the short term; wait for the valuation to return to a reasonable range before deploying

Golden Eagle Fund pointed out that priority should be given to overseas computing power, storage, and consumer electronics directions with performance support; the current transaction crowding is not too high, so there is still room for buying on dips[2].

Nie Tingjin, Deputy General Manager of Tianhong Fund, pointed out that the core investment opportunity in the next five years lies in “global re-industrialization”, and suggests focusing on the following directions[4]:

• Solid-State Batteries
  : Early stage of industrialization investment, with expectations of technological breakthroughs
• Intelligent Driving
  : Second half of the intelligentization process, accelerated commercialization
• Robots
  : Important scenario for AI implementation, with rising industrial chain prosperity
• High-End Manufacturing Going Global
  : Industrial upgrading opportunities against the background of globalization restructuring

1. Diversified Investment
   : Avoid over-concentrating on a single sector; balance returns and risks through diversified allocation
2. Stop-Loss Discipline
   : Set stop-loss levels for targets with excessive short-term gains and no fundamental support
3. Focus on Performance Verification
   : As the annual report disclosure season approaches, companies with matching performance growth and valuation will receive market premiums
4. Track Capital Flows
   : Pay attention to core variables such as incremental fund entry and Federal Reserve policy trends[2]

Golden Eagle Fund judges that there may still be upside potential in the subsequent phase of this rally, and even if there are periodic fluctuations, there is still a favorable layout opportunity at present[2]. Wang Zheng believes that the A-Share market will most likely continue its structural upward trend in the future, but differentiation will be the core feature, and profit contribution will gradually replace valuation expansion as the main driving force for market growth.

For recent operations, all interviewed institutional personnel emphasized: Avoid speculation risks in popular tracks, avoid excessive chasing of highs, focus on enterprises’ technology implementation capabilities and commercialization progress, and grasp core value targets under industry trends[2].

[1] Shanghai Securities News - “Morning Market Insights | Multiple Popular Commercial Spaceflight and AI Applications Companies Issue Risk Warnings! Important Announcements” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601133616239524.html)

[2] 21st Century Business Herald - “A-Share Turnover Exceeds 3.64 Trillion Yuan, Shanghai Composite Index Hits 10-Year High” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260112/herald/9c33977e8030958cbb061c4592f73d8b.html)

[3] Investing.com - “Turnover of Two Markets Reaches 3.6 Trillion Yuan, AI Applications and Commercial Spaceflight Both Surge” (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3160598)

[4] China Securities Journal - CS.com.cn - “Commercial Spaceflight Rises Continuously, AI Expands Across the Board! What to Grasp for 2026 Investment?” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-13/doc-inhhchmz9341878.shtml)