Analysis of the Impact of Export Tax Rebate Reduction on CATL and the Battery Industry

Based on systematic data analysis and industry research, I present to you an in-depth analysis report on

and .

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According to the announcement released by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026 [1], the export tax rebate policy adjustments are as follows:

Time Node	Policy Content	Adjustment Range
April 1 to December 31, 2026	The VAT export rebate rate for battery products is reduced from 9% to 6%	-3 percentage points
January 1, 2027 onwards	Cancel VAT export rebate for battery products	-6 percentage points

This policy adjustment covers products such as lithium-ion batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries, and all-vanadium flow batteries [1][3]. For photovoltaic products, the VAT export rebate will be directly canceled starting from April 1, 2026.

The policy is regarded as a substantive measure of the

in the new energy industry [1]. In recent years, the two major industries of photovoltaic and lithium-ion battery have been constrained by mismatched supply-demand relations and fierce price competition, leading to widespread pressure on industry profitability. From the end of 2022 to August 2025, the price of lithium iron phosphate plummeted by 80.2%, and the entire industry suffered consecutive losses for more than 36 months [2].

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Based on CATL’s financial data and industry export structure, we have constructed the following calculation model [0]:

• Annual operating revenue: approximately RMB 362 billion
• Export revenue ratio: approximately 30% (including overseas bases and direct exports)
• Net profit margin: 16.53%
• Estimated annual net profit: approximately RMB 59.84 billion

Time Period	Reduction in Export Tax Rebate	Ratio to Net Profit	Impact Rating
April-December 2026 (9 months)	Approximately RMB 2.443 billion	4.08%	Short-term Pressure
Full Year 2027	Approximately RMB 9.774 billion	16.33%	Significant Impact

• Annual export tax rebate amount under the original policy: 3,620 × 30% × 9% ≈
  RMB 9.774 billion
• Rebate available in 2026: 3,620 × 30% × 6% × 9/12 ≈
  RMB 4.887 billion
• Rebate will be zero starting from 2027

Enterprise Type	Cost Bearing Capacity	Overseas Factory Layout	Policy Impact Judgment
Leading Enterprises (CATL, BYD)	High	Well-established (Germany, Hungary, etc.)	Long-term Beneficial [4]
Second-tier Enterprises (CALB, Gotion High-tech, etc.)	Medium	Partial Layout	Neutral to Negative
Small and Medium-sized Manufacturers	Low	Virtually None	Major Negative [4]

Large battery enterprises support the policy, as it is long-term beneficial to giants but negative to small and medium-sized manufacturers [4]. Leading enterprises such as CATL can hedge cost pressures through scale effects and overseas factories, while small manufacturers relying on low-end production capacity and rebate subsidies will face the risk of profit inversion.

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According to industry data, the power battery industry presents a

[0]:

Indicator	Market Share	Remarks
CR3 (Top 3 Enterprises)	65%	Significant head concentration effect
CR5 (Top 5 Enterprises)	75%	Relatively stable pattern
CATL	37%	Global leading power battery enterprise
BYD	15%	Self-supply + export parallel
Other Enterprises	23%	Fierce competition

In the global energy storage battery sector, CATL holds a 36% market share, ranking firmly first [5].

Time Node	Power Battery Pack Price (RMB/Wh)	Energy Storage System Price (RMB/Wh)	Decline Rate
2022	1.00	1.50	Baseline
2025	0.45	0.40	55%-73%

Zeng Yuqun, Chairman of CATL, pointed out that the price of energy storage systems has dropped by about 80% in the past three years, and the winning bid price of a recent centralized procurement project even fell below 0.4 RMB/Wh,

[2].

At the beginning of 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Energy Administration, held a symposium on power and energy storage battery industry, gathering 16 leading enterprises [2][4]. The meeting put forward 20 measures, including:

1. Capacity Control
   : Dynamically investigate enterprise production capacity and utilization rate; “in principle, tighten or deny approval for new projects with low capacity utilization rate” [1]
2. Local Investment Attraction Standardization
   : Prevent excessive investment attraction and blind promotion of capacity expansion
3. Price Supervision
   : Establish a cost-based monitoring mechanism, detect and correct abnormal values
4. Penalties for Violations
   : Impose restrictions on financing, tax rebates, etc. [1]

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The current lithium-ion battery industrial chain presents a pattern of

:

• Upstream Lithium Carbonate
  : The price rebounded from RMB 60,000/ton in June 2025 to RMB 160,000/ton, with an increase of more than 160% [3]
• Midstream Materials
  : The quoted price of lithium iron phosphate materials increased by 5%-6%, and the price of ternary materials increased by about 4% [1]
• Downstream Batteries
  : Price transmission is lagging, and enterprises are under cost pressure

• Capacity utilization rate increased from about 60% in 2019 to nearly 90% [6]
• Well-established overseas factory layout (Germany, Hungary, etc.), which can avoid part of the impact of tax rebate reduction
• Technological leadership: R&D of high-compaction density lithium iron phosphate and solid-state batteries (small-batch production is expected in 2027)

• Increased customer concentration risk: Some enterprises rely on a single customer for more than 80% of their business [7]
• Severe fluctuations in gross profit margin: According to the prospectus of Hwin Battery, the gross profit margin fluctuated sharply between 27% and 42%, and “is not sustainable” [7]
• Capital chain pressure: Inventory and accounts receivable account for nearly 60% of total assets

Zhuo Chuang Information analysis pointed out that the policy adjustment may trigger

, which will provide certain support for traditional off-season demand before the April 2026 window period [3]. The main lithium carbonate futures contract has exceeded RMB 150,000/ton, and the spot market quotation is RMB 141,500-154,800/ton [3].

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1. Short-term Impact is Inevitable
   : The export tax rebate reduction in 2026-2027 will directly reduce the profits of battery enterprises, and CATL’s net profit in 2027 is expected to decrease by approximately 16%

2. Long-term Beneficial to Leading Enterprises
   :
   • Accelerate the clearance of backward production capacity
   • Enhance industry concentration (CR5 is expected to exceed 80%)
   • Promote technological upgrading and product high-endization

3. Industry Restructuring
   :
   • “Anti-involution” policies guide market self-cleansing
   • Overseas layout becomes a core competitiveness
   • Technology premium replaces price competition

Risk Type	Specific Content	Impact Degree
Overseas Factory Construction Risk	Policy changes, license approval, cost control	High
Technological Iteration Risk	Industrialization progress of solid-state batteries	High
Raw Material Price Fluctuation Risk	Sharp fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices	Medium-High
Demand Growth Slowdown Risk	Decline in growth rate of new energy vehicle market	Medium
Trade Friction Risk	Restrictions on Chinese new energy products by Europe and the US	Medium-High

Industrial Futures predicts that driven by the demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage, the demand increment for lithium salts in 2026 will exceed 350,000 tons, while the supply increment is about 300,000 tons, and a supply-demand gap may occur within the year [2]. The industry generally expects a healthy growth of 3%-5% in 2026 [2].

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The above chart includes four analysis dimensions:

1. Policy Timeline
   : Shows the adjustment path of export tax rebate from 9% to 6% and eventually to zero
2. Net Profit Impact Calculation
   : Quantifies CATL’s profit losses in 2026-2027
3. Industry Concentration
   : Oligopoly pattern with CR3 reaching 65% and CATL holding 37% market share
4. Price Trend
   : Comparison of continuous battery price decline and policy exit

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[1] 21st Century Business Herald - “New Export Tax Rebate Policy for Photovoltaic and Lithium-ion Battery Industries Released, Capacity Release in Q1 ‘Not Sluggish in Off-season’” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260112/herald/423a20d4f119c3d79eed5c5df2ac198a.html)

[2] Sina Finance - “Multiple Departments Reiterate ‘Anti-Involution’ for Power and Energy Storage Batteries, Enterprises Say ‘Price War’ Has Already…” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-08/doc-inhfqtyp3821510.shtml)

[3] Sina Tech - “All Limit Up! Main Lithium Carbonate Futures Contract Returns to 150,000 RMB” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/roll/2026-01-12/doc-inhfzukp8315627.shtml)

[4] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - “China’s New Energy Policy Overhaul, Rectification Accelerates Industry Concentration” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/中國新能源政策大洗牌-出口退稅取消-產能整頓加速行業集中-122003884.html)

[5] 36Kr - “Global Energy Storage Battery Market Share Chart” (https://img.36krcdn.com/hsossms/20250808/v2_f452db8dabff4517821792884fcbaa9d@1133528739_oswg29708oswg430oswg430_img_000)

[6] Sina Finance - “CATL’s Capacity Utilization Trend Chart” (https://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20251105/727/w1080h1247/20251105/07c3-cfd67a4ac8fc5a6a230230d2e3d97a38.jpg)

[7] EET China - “CATL’s Supplier Raises RMB 840 Million in Funding” (https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a464220.html)

[0] Jinling AI - CATL Financial Data, DCF Valuation, Industry Analysis (Based on FMP API Data)