Analysis of the Impact of Export Tax Rebate Policy Rollback on Profits of Battery Enterprises Including CATL

Based on the collected information, I now present a systematic and comprehensive analysis report for you.

---

According to the Announcement on Adjusting Export Tax Rebate Policies for Photovoltaic and Other Products [1] issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 9, 2026, the export tax rebate policy for battery products will be reduced in a phased manner:

Implementation Period	Change in Rebate Rate
April 1 - December 31, 2026	Reduced from 9% to 6%
Starting from January 1, 2027	Export VAT rebate for battery products canceled

This is a

of the adjustment in December 2024 that reduced the battery export tax rebate rate from 13% to 9% [2]. The policy adjustment covers 22 types of battery-related products including primary lithium batteries, lithium-ion batteries, and nickel-metal hydride batteries [3].

This export tax rebate rollback is regarded as an important measure for the country to promote the “anti-involution” initiative. CITIC Securities analysis points out that this move aims to reduce trade frictions, promote industrial upgrading, and

[4]. Previously, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments held multiple symposiums on the power and energy storage battery industry in November 2025 and January 7, 2026, to study and deploy work on standardizing industrial competition order [5].

---

According to CATL’s 2024 financial data, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 362.013 billion and net profit of RMB 50.745 billion [6]. The company’s overseas business has the following characteristics:

Indicator	Value/Characteristic
Gross Profit Margin of Overseas Business	Approximately 29%, 5-10 percentage points higher than domestic
Gross Profit Margin of Domestic Sales	Approximately 23%
Export Gross Profit Margin After Deducting Rebates	Approximately 20%
Global Market Share of Power Batteries	37.9%, ranked first globally for 8 consecutive years
Global Market Share of Energy Storage Batteries	36.5%, ranked first globally for 4 consecutive years

: CATL’s export gross profit margin is 29%, but after deducting the 9% export tax rebate, it is actually only 20%, [7]. This means that the actual profitability of the current export business is not as good as that of the domestic market.

According to industry analysis, the 9% export tax rebate

, which has a huge impact on its operating profit. It is estimated that [7].

---

According to calculations by CITIC Securities [4]:

Year	Estimated Export Value	Policy Impact
2025	Approximately USD 76 billion	Base year
2026	Approximately USD 91.2 billion	Rebate reduction of approximately USD 2.2 billion
2027	Approximately USD 109.4 billion	Rebate reduction of approximately USD 6.6 billion

:

• After April 2026, the export tax rebate rate will be reduced by 3%, affecting the annual rebate amount by approximately USD 2.2 billion
• In 2027, the export tax rebate will be completely canceled, which is expected to affect the annual rebate amount by approximately USD 6.6 billion

Sensitivity analysis based on CATL’s business structure:

• Assumed export revenue accounts for 30% of CATL’s total revenue (approximately RMB 108.6 billion)
• Impact of rebate reduction: RMB 108.6 billion × 3% =
  Approximately RMB 3.26 billion impact on net profit

• Impact of rebate reduction: RMB 108.6 billion × 9% =
  Approximately RMB 9.77 billion impact on net profit

:

• CATL’s net profit in 2024 was RMB 50.745 billion
• The policy rollback may lead to a
  6%-19% decline in net profit

---

1. Direct Profit Compression
   : The gross profit margin of export business will decrease by 3-9 percentage points
2. Disadvantage in Price Game Difficult to Reverse
   : CATL was already in a disadvantaged position in price negotiations with downstream vehicle manufacturers, and the reduction in export tax rebates will further weaken its bargaining power [7]
3. Market Sentiment Impact
   : After the policy was announced, CATL’s A-shares once fell by more than 4%, and H-shares fell by 3% [5]

1. Policy Transition Period Arrangement
   : Enterprises have sufficient time to negotiate price adjustments with overseas customers before April 2026
2. Export Rush Effect
   : It is expected that in the first quarter of 2026, battery manufacturers will concentrate exports to complete orders before the rebate rate is lowered, forming an “export rush” trend
3. Inventory Clearing Opportunity
   : It is expected to accelerate inventory digestion in overseas markets before the policy rollback

The export tax rebate rollback will

, helping to alleviate the problem of overcapacity in the industry [3]. However, as analysis points out, due to the extremely high concentration of the lithium battery industry (the global top 10 market share reaches 89%, with CATL and BYD accounting for 72%), the policy’s role in clearing backward companies may be limited [7].

In the face of policy rollback and overseas trade barriers,

[8]:

Enterprise	Investment Project	Production Capacity	Expected Production Start Time
CATL	Zaragoza Plant in Spain (joint venture with Stellantis)	50GWh	End of 2026
CATL	Grid-level energy storage project in Japan	2.4GWh	Under construction
EVE Energy	Debrecen Plant in Hungary	28GWh	Under construction
Gotion High-Tech	Surań Plant in Slovakia	20GWh	Phase I completed
Tianci Materials	Texas Plant in the United States	200,000 tons of electrolyte	Under construction

Building factories overseas allows enterprises to

, while enjoying local subsidy policies and enhancing product competitiveness.

---

Enterprise Type	Impact Degree	Response Capability
Leading Enterprises (CATL, BYD)	Medium	Strong (overseas factory construction, technological upgrading, strong bargaining power)
Second-tier Enterprises (EVE Energy, Gotion High-Tech)	Relatively High	Medium (accelerate overseas expansion, expand energy storage market)
Small and Medium-sized Enterprises	Relatively High	Weak (facing risk of elimination)

• Cell Manufacturing Enterprises
  : Bear the impact of rebate rollback directly, with obvious profit compression
• Equipment Manufacturing Enterprises
  (such as Winhao Technology, Xinda Intelligent): Benefit indirectly (battery manufacturers will form a “equipment rush installation” window period to complete capacity expansion before the rebate rate is lowered) [9]
• Material Enterprises
  : Depends on the proportion of exports; enterprises with overseas factories are less affected

---

1. Short-term Negative, Medium and Long-term Differentiation
   : The export tax rebate rollback puts pressure on the short-term profits of battery enterprises, but benefits leading enterprises with overseas capacity layout
2. Accelerated Industrial Upgrading
   : The policy forces enterprises to shift from “cost competition” to “technology competition”, and high-value-added products will obtain higher premiums
3. Focus on Overseas Layout Progress
   : 2026-2027 is the period of intensive release of overseas capacity for leading battery enterprises, and the increase in the proportion of overseas business will be a key growth driver

Risk Type	Specific Content
Policy Risk	Possibility of further adjustments to export tax rebates
Overseas Policy Risk	Trade barriers such as the US IRA Act and the EU’s New Battery Regulation
Exchange Rate Risk	Impact of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness
Overcapacity Risk	Continuous decline in domestic capacity utilization
Technological Iteration Risk	Impact of new technologies such as solid-state batteries on existing production capacity

• Changes in the proportion of CATL’s overseas business revenue
• Production progress and capacity utilization of overseas factories
• Long-term order locking status with overseas customers
• Increase in the proportion of high-value-added products in product structure

---

The impact of export tax rebate policy rollback on the profits of battery enterprises such as CATL is

:

1. Significant Short-term Impact
   : The reduction of rebate rate in 2026 will directly affect CATL’s net profit by approximately RMB 3-10 billion, compressing the gross profit margin of export business
2. Clear Policy Purpose
   : Aims to prevent “involution externalization”, promote industrial upgrading, and eliminate low-end production capacity
3. Strong Response Capability of Leading Enterprises
   : CATL can hedge the policy impact by accelerating overseas factory construction, improving product technology content, and negotiating price adjustments with downstream customers
4. Medium and Long-term Benefits for Layout Enterprises
   : Enterprises that successfully achieve global layout will occupy an advantageous position in the new round of industrial competition

---

[1] Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration. “Announcement on Adjusting Export Tax Rebate Policies for Photovoltaic and Other Products”. January 9, 2026
[2] Wall Street CN. “Adjustment of Export Tax Rebate Policy for Photovoltaic and Battery Products: What’s the Impact?”. January 12, 2026
[3] Sina Finance. “China Plans to Cancel or Reduce Export Tax Rebates for Hundreds of Products”. January 10, 2026
[4] CITIC Securities Research. Analysis Report on Battery Export Tax Rebate Policy. January 2026
[5] 21st Century Business Herald. “New Export Tax Rebate Policy for Photovoltaic and Lithium Batteries Issued, Capacity Release in Q1 ‘Not Sluggish in Off-Season’”. January 12, 2026
[6] Jiemian News. “Jiemian News 2025 New Energy Industry CEO List Released”. December 2025
[7] Eastmoney. “Brief Discussion on the Impact of Export Tax Rebate Policy Rollback on the Battery Industry”. January 12, 2026
[8] Touzijie/Economic Observer. “Fierce Battle: Great Migration of Lithium Battery Giants in Europe”. December 2025
[9] Eastmoney. “Adjustment of Export Tax Rebate Policy for Photovoltaic and Lithium Batteries: Policy Does Not Directly Impact Equipment Exports”. January 11, 2026

---

**Data Cut-off Date: January 12, 2026"