In-Depth Analysis of Shanxi Fenjiu's "Double Buyback" Marketing Strategy

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In early January 2026, Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SS) launched an innovative marketing product that sparked widespread market attention in its official flagship store —

. This product adopted a highly topical marketing strategy: if consumers purchase the product within the specified period (January 1 to 8, 2026), Fenjiu officially promises to two years later (between January 8 and 20, 2028) [1][2].

Item	Details
Product Specification	2 bottles of 225ml 53% ABV Blue and White 25·Hua Shen Ling
Launch Price	RMB 489 per box
Launch Scale	200 boxes limited daily, total 1,600 boxes
Buyback Requirements	Unopened product, intact packaging, original order retained
Buyback Period	January 8 to 20, 2028
Buyback Amount	Double the purchase price (RMB 978 per box)
Estimated Total Investment	RMB 780,000 (sales revenue) to RMB 1.56 million (buyback expenditure)

As of the campaign’s launch, the product had shown sales of over 1,000 boxes in the official flagship store [3]. From an input-output perspective, even if all 1,600 boxes are repurchased, Fenjiu only needs to spend approximately RMB 1.56 million, which is a drop in the bucket for Shanxi Fenjiu, which had cash reserves of RMB 11.307 billion as of the end of the third quarter of 2025 [1].

This marketing campaign quickly sparked widespread market discussions, with some investors linking it to wealth management products and even questioning whether it constitutes “fundraising”. However,

[2]:

• January 5
  (the first trading day after the campaign’s launch), Shanxi Fenjiu’s stock price reversed its previous decline,
  closing up over 3%
  , leading the baijiu sector [2]
• The baijiu sector saw broad gains that day, with Kweichow Moutai leading the rally, followed by Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiugui Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, etc. [2]
• Related topics about “Hua Shen Ling” continued to ferment, becoming the focus of the industry, and completed efficient preheating for this new product that has not yet been officially launched [1]

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The current baijiu industry is going through a profound adjustment period, with price inversion becoming a core problem plaguing distributors. According to industry research data,

, and more than half of distributors report worsening price inversion issues [1]. Even for Fenjiu’s core product Blue and White 20, its actual market transaction price once fell below RMB 340, far below its official guide price of RMB 568, severely compressing channel profit margins [1].

Against this backdrop, Fenjiu’s “double buyback” promise has important signaling significance:

1. Price Stabilization Expectation Management
   : Through a clear price guarantee mechanism, it sends a positive signal to the market that “the liquor enterprise is willing to weather the storm with distributors” [1]
2. Brand Value Endorsement
   : Using official credit to endorse the product’s value, strengthening consumers’ confidence in the brand’s value preservation
3. Channel Confidence Boost
   : Similar to Wuliangye’s measures to stabilize distributor profits through discount subsidies, it reflects the channel responsibility awareness of leading enterprises [1]

From a product strategy perspective, the launch of “Hua Shen Ling” is a key step in the gradient layout of Fenjiu’s Blue and White series [3]:

Product Series	Target Price Range	Core Competitors
Blue and White 20	RMB 400 range	Shui Jing Fang Jing Tai, Jian Nan Chun Crystal Sword
Blue and White 26	RMB 600 range	Yanghe Dream Blue M6+
Blue and White 30	RMB 800 high-end	Wuliangye Pu Wu, Guojiao 1573
Hua Shen Ling	RMB 500 range	Yanghe Dream Blue M6

Against the background of stock competition where baijiu production plummeted from its 2016 peak of 13.584 million kiloliters to 4.145 million kiloliters in 2024, the RMB 500 price range is already surrounded by strong competitors [3]. Fenjiu has broken the market silence through innovative marketing, opening up a survival space for the new product, and demonstrating clear strategic planning.

From the perspective of marketing cost-effectiveness, this campaign can be called a textbook example of precise marketing [1][3]:

• Extremely Low Communication Cost
  : A potential investment of RMB 780,000 has garnered extensive coverage on social media, self-media, and financial media
• Efficient Brand Exposure
  : “Hua Shen Ling” quickly became the focus of the industry, with related topics continuing to ferment
• Successful New Product Preheating
  : This product, which has not yet been officially launched, has already captured public attention in advance
• Consumer Engagement
  : Integrating the poetic culture of the Twelve Flower Gods with modern life aesthetics, paired with an exclusive collection certificate, it aligns with the national trend consumption trend [3]

As one Fenjiu distributor put it: “This has nothing to do with ‘fundraising’ or ‘wealth management’; the core purpose is to pave the way for the new product’s launch.” [3]

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Looking back at the past decade, the baijiu industry experienced a period of significantly enhanced financial attributes. After the introduction of the “Eight Regulations” in 2012, demand for official receptions plummeted, but high-end baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye did not fade away. Instead, they successfully transformed their consumption attributes into investment attributes through strategies such as volume control to maintain prices, premium for aged liquor, and collection and investment [4][5].

Typical features of this period include:

1. Sustained Price Increase
   : The retail price of Feitian Moutai rose from approximately RMB 1,000 in 2012 to over RMB 3,000 in 2021
2. Channel Hoarding Phenomenon
   : Distributors and investors hoarded large quantities of baijiu, waiting for appreciation
3. Financialized Product Innovation
   : Financialized products such as zodiac-themed liquor and commemorative liquor emerged in large numbers
4. Stock Market Premium
   : The baijiu sector enjoyed a “certainty premium” in valuation for a long time, with Moutai’s market capitalization once exceeding RMB 3 trillion

Since 2025, the baijiu industry has been undergoing a profound de-financialization transformation [4][5]:

: The revised “Regulations on Practicing Economy and Opposing Waste in Party and Government Organs” issued in May 2025 clearly stipulates that “no alcohol shall be served at working meals for official receptions”, which is regarded as another heavy blow following the “Eight Regulations” in 2012 [4]. Although official reception consumption accounts for less than 1% of Moutai’s total consumption, the impact of the policy signal on market sentiment far exceeds its actual impact.

: Moutai’s wholesale price has continued to decline, which industry analysts call a “process of de-financialization” [4]. Speculators who were once keen on hoarding to wait for price increases have exited one after another, and investment-oriented purchases have decreased significantly. In December 2025, Feitian Moutai even fell below its official guide price of RMB 1,499. This landmark event indicates that baijiu is accelerating its return from “financial attribute” to “consumption attribute” [5].

: Consumers have become more rational, no longer blindly pursuing the investment value of high-end baijiu. Data shows that the best-selling price range in the current baijiu market has shifted down to RMB 100-300, while mid-range baijiu in the RMB 300-800 price range is growing the fastest, accounting for 35% of the market [4].

Shanxi Fenjiu’s launch of the “double buyback” campaign comes at a critical juncture in the baijiu industry’s de-financialization process, sparking widespread market discussion on whether the financial attribute of baijiu is “rebounding”.

• The promise of double buyback after two years is essentially a price floor commitment, with some characteristics of investment wealth management products
• The campaign has triggered consumers’ association of baijiu with wealth management products, showing the market’s cognitive inertia regarding baijiu’s financial attributes
• Launching such a campaign during a market downturn may be a signal from the liquor enterprise to test the market’s acceptance of financialized products

• The campaign scale is extremely small (only 1,600 boxes), with limited total investment, and does not have the large-scale characteristics of financial products [1][2]
• The buyback requirements are strict (unopened product, intact packaging, original order retained), which actually requires consumers to bear storage costs and risks [1]
• Fenjiu’s official response clearly states: This has nothing to do with “fundraising” or “wealth management”; the core purpose is to pave the way for the new product’s launch [3]
• The current baijiu industry as a whole is in a de-financialization cycle, and the policy environment does not support large-scale promotion of financialized products

Fenjiu’s “double buyback” campaign is more likely a precise marketing innovation, rather than a rebound of baijiu’s financial attributes. The core value of the campaign lies in brand communication and price stabilization signaling, rather than creating new financial products. Its small scale and low investment also determine that it will not have a substantive impact on the industry pattern.

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Against the backdrop of overall pressure in the baijiu industry, Shanxi Fenjiu has shown strong operational resilience, becoming one of the few enterprises to achieve “double growth” in operating revenue and net profit [3]:

Financial Indicator	2022	2023	2024	YoY Change
Operating Revenue (RMB 100 million)	262.14	319.28	360.11	+12.79%
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (RMB 100 million)	80.96	104.38	122.43	+17.29%
Gross Profit Margin	76.52%	75.89%	76.73%	+0.84pct

, Shanxi Fenjiu continued its steady growth momentum:

• Achieved operating revenue of RMB 32.924 billion, up 5% YoY, hitting a record high
• Net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 11.405 billion, up 0.48% YoY
• Among the 20 listed baijiu enterprises on the A-share market, only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu maintained positive revenue growth [3]

Notably, in 2024, Fenjiu’s operating revenue successfully surpassed Luzhou Laojiao, ranking third in the industry, behind only Moutai and Wuliangye, solidifying its position in the first echelon of the baijiu industry [3].

Fenjiu’s Nationalization Strategy 2.0 has achieved remarkable results, becoming the core engine of performance growth [1]:

• Accelerated Expansion Outside Shanxi Province
  : Operating revenue outside Shanxi reached RMB 21.81 billion in the first three quarters, accounting for 66.5% of total revenue
• Enhanced Channel Penetration
  : 506 new distributors were added outside Shanxi, with the channel network continuously improved
• Improved Regional Balance
  : The pattern of over-reliance on the local Shanxi market has been fundamentally reversed

Based on the latest market data [0]:

Valuation Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	RMB 1.5 trillion	Third in the Baijiu Sector
P/E (TTM)	17.84x	In the historical low range
P/B	5.66x	-
ROE	33.28%	Leading Level in the Industry
Net Profit Margin	32.73%	Top Level in the Industry
Current Ratio	2.93	Financially Sound
Debt Risk	Low Risk	Financial Analysis Conclusion

1. Aggressive Accounting Policies
   : The company exhibits aggressive accounting characteristics, with a low depreciation/capital expenditure ratio, meaning there may be limited upside potential in reported earnings [0]
2. Abundant Free Cash Flow
   : The latest free cash flow is approximately RMB 11.535 billion, with a healthy cash flow position [0]
3. Controllable Debt Risk
   : Financial analysis classifies it as “low risk”, and a current ratio of 2.93 indicates sufficient short-term solvency [0]
4. Valuation at Historical Low
   : The 17.84x P/E has fallen significantly compared to the historical valuation range, reflecting the market’s overall cautious attitude towards the baijiu industry

Time Horizon	Shanxi Fenjiu Performance	Baijiu Index Performance
1 Day	+1.86%	-
5 Days	+0.46%	-
1 Month	-0.15%	-
3 Months	-4.70%	-
6 Months	+1.32%	-
1 Year	+3.61%	-
3 Years	-39.51%	-

From the perspective of stock performance, Shanxi Fenjiu has fallen by approximately 40% cumulatively over the past three years, which mainly reflects the systemic risk of the overall valuation center of the baijiu industry moving downward, rather than a deterioration of the company’s fundamentals. In the third quarter of 2025, its single-quarter operating revenue of RMB 8.96 billion and total profit of RMB 3.97 billion both exceeded Wuliangye, demonstrating strong competitiveness [1].

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Based on forecasts from multiple securities research institutions [2][5]:

• Industry sales velocity is expected to recover month-on-month, with consumption during the Spring Festival peak season worth looking forward to
• The marketing strategy orientation of leading enterprises is “volume before price, priority on sales velocity, market share first”
• Leading enterprises such as Moutai and Wuliangye have successively launched supply-side measures, and market expectations are gradually stabilizing

• The industry’s price per ton is expected to rise moderately, but the probability of a sharp reversal is low
• Optimistic about stock outperformance opportunities brought by new products and new channels
• After four years of adjustment, the baijiu industry is expected to reach a “valuation + performance” double bottom

• The baijiu industry will see intensified differentiation, and competition among leading brands will shift to a comprehensive contest of brand value, channel resilience, and innovation capability
• Youth-oriented positioning and cost-effectiveness will become the core themes of industry development
• Baijiu is returning to its essence of consumption from an investment product, and healthy consumption attributes will lead the industry’s development

1. Strong Brand Momentum
   : Leading light-aroma baijiu brand, with the “Fenjiu” brand having profound historical and cultural heritage
2. Perfect Product Matrix
   : The Blue and White series covers the RMB 400-1,500 price range, meeting different consumption needs
3. Leading Nationalization Layout
   : Revenue outside Shanxi accounts for over 66%, with remarkable results from the nationalization strategy
4. Sound Financial Status
   : Abundant cash flow, low debt risk, with the ability to traverse economic cycles
5. Pragmatic Management Team
   : 2026 is the first year of the second phase of Fenjiu’s “Rejuvenation Program”, with the business strategy shifting to “priority on sales velocity”

1. Industry Systemic Risk
   : The overall de-financialization process of the baijiu industry is still ongoing, and the valuation center may be under long-term pressure
2. Price Inversion Risk
   : Channel inventory pressure may lead to further decline in product prices
3. Intensified Competition Risk
   : The RMB 500 price range has fierce competition, with competitors having deep roots
4. Policy Uncertainty
   : The policy of prohibiting alcohol at official receptions may be further strengthened

Dimension	Assessment
Valuation Level	Reasonably Low (17.84x P/E is in the historical low range)
Fundamentals	Excellent (Countercyclical growth, leading operating revenue growth in the industry)
Growth Potential	Above Medium (Release of nationalization dividends + product upgrading)
Risk-Reward Ratio	Favorable (Limited downside risk, considerable upside potential)
Comprehensive Rating	Accumulate on dips, wait for valuation recovery

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Shanxi Fenjiu’s “Hua Shen Ling” double buyback campaign is essentially a low-cost, high-return brand marketing innovation, rather than a rebound of baijiu’s financial attributes. The core objectives of the campaign include:

1. Brand Communication
   : Creating a topic that has become the focus of the industry with a potential investment of RMB 780,000
2. Price Stabilization Signaling
   : Sending a positive signal of price stabilization and market protection to distributors
3. New Product Preheating
   : Paving the way for the official launch of Blue and White 25·Hua Shen Ling

The current baijiu industry is in a profound de-financialization process, driven by policy regulation, changes in market supply and demand, and shifts in consumer behavior. Although Fenjiu’s marketing campaign has sparked discussions about financial attributes, judging from the campaign scale, product attributes, and policy environment, the financial attribute of baijiu is unlikely to rebound in the short term.

Shanxi Fenjiu has shown strong operational resilience during the industry adjustment period, ranking third in the industry in terms of operating revenue in 2024, with solid fundamentals and sound financial status. Although short-term valuations are suppressed by the overall industry downturn, as the industry gradually bottoms out and stabilizes, Fenjiu is expected to gain a larger market share in the next industry cycle relying on its brand advantages, nationalization layout, and innovation capability.

In the long run, Shanxi Fenjiu remains one of the most valuable investment targets in China’s baijiu industry. It is recommended that investors accumulate positions on dips when valuations fall to a reasonable range to share in the long-term growth benefits of the enterprise.

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[1] Sina Finance - “In the Baijiu Adjustment Period, How Does Fenjiu’s “Double Buyback” Achieve “Three Birds with One Stone”?” (https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/6881143839/19a25ec1f00101kq5i)

[2] China Fund News - “Shanxi Fenjiu’s Official Flagship Store Launches “Double in Two Years” Buyback Campaign” (https://www.chnfund.com/article/AR2c03d908-70b3-9a38-dd51-3a1ea0b5a3cc)

[3] East Money - Wealth Account - “Double Profit in Two Years? Fenjiu Launches New Gift Box for RMB 489, Promises Double Buyback” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260106191134941061940)

[4] 21st Century Business Herald - “The Golden Age of Baijiu is Over” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20251014/herald/10799cd430bf53bf51663af935156ecd.html)

[5] 21st Century Business Herald - “Decoding the 2025 Baijiu Industry: Reconstructing New Growth Drivers in Adjustment” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20251228/herald/082f87cd00bf525f0f6871caad05133a.html)

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[0] Jinling AI Financial Database (Real-time Market Data, Financial Analysis Data, Company Profile Data)