Zhipu AI (02513.HK): Analysis of First-Day Listing Performance and Valuation on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Based on the information I have collected, here is a comprehensive analysis of Zhipu AI’s listing performance as the “First Global Large Model Stock”:

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Zhipu AI officially listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) on January 8, 2026, truly becoming the “First Global Large Model Stock”. The first-day trading performance showed a volatile pattern:

• Issue Price
  : HK$116.2 per share
• Opening Price
  : HK$120 per share (3.27% higher than issue price)
• Intraday Performance
  : Briefly fell below the issue price, then rebounded rapidly
• Closing Price
  : HK$131.5 per share
• First-Day Increase
  :
  13.17%
• Total Market Capitalization
  : Approximately HK$57.9 billion (≈ US$6.6 billion)
• Maximum Intraday Increase
  : Rose over 16.18% to HK$135 per share during trading[1][2]

This IPO was highly favored by investors: the Hong Kong public offering was

, triggering the clawback mechanism; the international offering was also oversubscribed by more than 15 times[3].

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According to Soochow Securities’ calculation, based on the IPO pricing, Zhipu’s expected

[4]. This valuation is analyzed from the following dimensions:

Valuation Comparison	Valuation Level	Zhipu AI Comparison
OpenAI	Approximately US$830 billion	Zhipu is approximately 1% of OpenAI’s valuation
Anthropic	Approximately US$350 billion	Zhipu is approximately 1/50th of Anthropic’s valuation
Zhipu AI	Approximately HK$57.9 billion	—

1. Scarcity Premium
   : As the world’s first listed pure large model company, Zhipu has the scarcity of being the “first stock” in this category
2. Technological Leadership
   : According to a Frost & Sullivan report, based on 2024 revenue, Zhipu is the largest independent general-purpose large model developer in China, with a 6.6% market share, ranking
   second
   among all general-purpose large model developers[3]
3. MaaS Business Growth Momentum
   : After the launch of GLM-4.7, the annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of Zhipu’s MaaS business increased from RMB20 million to over RMB500 million,
   growing 25 times in 10 months
   , with a year-on-year growth rate of over 900% for the full year of 2025[2]
4. Developer Ecosystem
   : The MaaS platform has over 2.7 million registered developers, and its open-source models have been downloaded over 60 million times globally

1. Continuous Losses
   : The adjusted net loss in the first half of 2025 reached RMB1.752 billion, with the loss scale continuing to expand
2. Extremely High R&D Investment Intensity
   : The ratio of R&D expenses to revenue is
   8.4:1
   , which is more than 5 times that of OpenAI and over 8 times that of Anthropic[5]
3. Single Revenue Structure
   : Localized deployment revenue accounts for over 84% of total revenue, with high concentration in government and enterprise clients; the top five customers account for approximately 50% of revenue

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Zhipu exhibits the characteristics of a typical high-growth tech stock:

Period	Revenue	YoY Growth Rate	Notes
2022	RMB57.4 million	—	Base period
2023	RMB124.5 million	117%	130% compound growth rate
2024	RMB312.4 million	151%	—
H1 2025	RMB191 million	325%	Growth rate accelerated further

Zhipu is currently in a stage where

[5]. The losses mainly stem from:

1. Surge in R&D Investment
   : R&D expenditures from 2022 to 2024 were RMB84 million, RMB529 million, and RMB2.195 billion respectively, with average daily R&D expenses of approximately RMB6 million
2. High Computing Power Costs
   : Computing power costs accounted for 19% of total costs in H1 2025, second only to labor costs
3. Impact of Price Wars
   : Price wars initiated by major domestic players (ByteDance, Alibaba, etc.) caused the gross margin of the MaaS business to plummet from 76% in 2022 to
   -0.4%
   in H1 2025[6]

Indicator	OpenAI	Anthropic	Zhipu AI
Computing Power Profit Margin	70% (October 2025)	~53% (forecast)	Negative
Gross Margin	~70%	~50%	50%
R&D-to-Revenue Ratio	1.56:1	1.04:1	8.4:1

OpenAI and Anthropic have achieved rapid growth in computing power profit margins by optimizing model architectures and improving inference efficiency, while Zhipu is still in the early stage of “burning money for growth”[7].

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1. Reconstruction of Valuation Logic
   : Amid the reconstruction of the AI valuation system, traditional financial indicators can no longer fully define a company’s value. As pointed out by David George, partner at a16z, the core tracking indicators for AI products are shifting from “revenue” to leading indicators such as “user growth, API call volume, and ecosystem penetration”[2]

2. Validation Cycle of Business Model
   :
   • Liu Debing, Chairman of Zhipu, stated: “The most important thing about the IPO is the practical test of whether the technological logic can translate into business logic”[8]
   • The company is currently in the transition period from “technological leadership” to “business sustainability”

3. Room for Valuation Compression
   : Soochow Securities predicts that with the rapid expansion of revenue scale, Zhipu’s PS valuation multiple will have
   room for rapid compression
   [4]

Indicator	Current Status	Target Status
MaaS Revenue Share	~15%	Increase to 50%
Gross Margin	50%	Increase to 70%+
R&D-to-Revenue Ratio	8.4:1	Reduce to below 3:1
Break-Even	In Loss	Expected after 2027

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1. Tsinghua University-Affiliated Technical Background
   : The founding team originates from the Knowledge Engineering Laboratory of the Department of Computer Science at Tsinghua University, with independent R&D capabilities spanning from underlying algorithms to full-link solutions
2. Full-Stack Model Matrix
   : Covers language, vision, code, and agents; GLM-4.7 has achieved breakthroughs in coding capabilities and multi-modal collaboration
3. Government and Enterprise Client Resources
   : 9 of China’s top 10 internet companies use GLM models
4. Open-Source Ecosystem Strategy
   : Attracts developers through open-source strategies, building a commercial closed-loop of “open-source traffic acquisition - tool retention - API monetization”

1. Intensified Competition
   : Over 200 registered large models (including ByteDance’s Doubao, Alibaba’s Tongyi, Baidu’s Ernie, etc.) continue to compete in the market
2. Cash Flow Pressure
   : At the current consumption rate, the company’s book cash can support operations for approximately 1.5 to 1.9 years
3. Technological Iteration Risk
   : The AI industry has extremely fast technological updates; “a breakthrough made by others in one month may easily catch up with a lead we spent a year building”[8]
4. Customer Concentration Risk
   : Revenue is highly dependent on large government and enterprise clients; fluctuations in client demand may directly impact performance

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Zhipu AI’s

. This can be seen from the following dimensions:

1. Horizontal Comparison
   : Compared with OpenAI (US$830 billion) and Anthropic (US$350 billion), Zhipu’s valuation seems “particularly modest”, accounting for only 1% to 1/50th of their valuations
2. Vertical Development
   : As the “first global large model stock”, Zhipu bears the historical mission of verifying the feasibility of the large model business model
3. Valuation Logic
   : The current PS ratio of 30x needs to be digested through high-speed growth over the next 2-3 years

: For a large model company that is still in the investment phase, not yet profitable, but possesses technological barriers and ecosystem advantages, the HK$70 billion valuation is both justified and carries high expectations for its commercialization progress. Investors need to focus not only on current loss figures but also on leading indicators such as model iteration speed, developer ecosystem expansion, and improvement in MaaS business gross margin—these will determine whether the valuation can eventually be converted into real profitability.

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[1] Caixin - Zhipu AI Opens 3.27% Higher in Hong Kong IPO, Up Nearly 9% with Market Cap of Approximately HK$55.5 Billion (https://companies.caixin.com/m/2026-01-08/102401577.html)

[2] Futu News - Zhipu’s MaaS ARR Surpasses RMB500 Million, Growing 25 Times in 10 Months (https://news.futunn.com/post/67115590/zhipu-maas-arr-surpasses-500-million-growing-25-times-in)

[3] The Time Weekly - The World’s First Large Model Stock is Born! Zhipu Rises 13.17% on First Trading Day (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3156519)

[4] Wall Street CN - “China’s First Large Model Stock” Zhipu Narrowly Rises on First Trading Day (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762845)

[5] Tencent News - Celebrating IPO, Zhipu Gave Employees: A Bottle of Wangzai Milk (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260110A03TI700)

[6] Sina Finance - Zhipu AI, Ranked “Second”: How Much Value Does It Hold? (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/2025-12-21/doc-inhcpmap5817079.shtml)

[7] Zhitong Finance - Operational Efficiency “Leads the Pack”! OpenAI’s Computing Power Profit Margin Hits 70% (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2025-12-22/doc-inhcrpzq9378266.shtml)

[8] Sina Finance - Large Model: The First Stock, The First Test (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-09/doc-inhfrkwi6453107.shtml)