Analysis of Eli Lilly's Global Supply Layout for Oral Weight-Loss Drugs and Its Impact on the Market Competitive Landscape

I will now conduct a systematic and comprehensive analysis based on the collected data.

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The global GLP-1 weight-loss drug market is undergoing a strategic transformation from “explosive growth in incremental volume” to “competition for existing volume”. According to industry forecasts, the market size will grow from $8.17 billion in 2025 to $39.53 billion in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 37%[0][1]. As the two leading enterprises, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are engaging in all-round competition through product innovation, capacity expansion, and channel layout.

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Orforglipron developed by Eli Lilly is a once-daily oral non-peptide GLP-1 receptor agonist, which is currently under FDA review and expected to be approved as early as March 2026[2][3]. The drug has completed Phase III clinical trials and demonstrated the following characteristics:

Indicator	Data
Administration Frequency	Once daily oral
Average Weight Loss Effect	12.4% (72 weeks)
Clinical Advantages	Sustained weight loss effect after switching from injectable formulations (Zepbound/Wegovy)

In the head-to-head clinical trial (ACHIEVE-3 study), Orforglipron demonstrated significant advantages over Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide: the 36mg dose group achieved an average weight loss of 8.9kg, with a relative advantage of 73.6%[1].

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Eli Lilly has invested

in expanding its global production network, creating supply chain advantages that are difficult for competitors to replicate[4]:

Region	Investment Project	Investment Amount	Functional Positioning
United States	Texas Plant	$6.5 billion	API production base
United States	Virginia Plant	$5 billion	Oral formulation production
United States	North Carolina Plant	$2 billion	High-tech injectable production
Europe	Katwijk Plant, Netherlands	$3 billion	Advanced oral formulations, adopting dock-to-dock automation
Asia	Capacity Cooperation in India	Over $1 billion	CDMO cooperation model
Americas	Puerto Rico Plant Expansion	-	Expansion of existing capacity

This hybrid model of “internal expansion + CDMO cooperation” makes Eli Lilly the only enterprise besides Novo Nordisk capable of addressing global supply shortages[4].

Eli Lilly launched a highly competitive pricing strategy at the end of 2025:

• Zepbound vials
  : Out-of-pocket price reduced to $299-$350/month (for cash-paying patients)
• LillyDirect platform
  : Direct-to-consumer (DTC) model to disrupt the gray market
• Medicare Part D Pilot
  : Launch of senior health insurance coverage program in April 2026[5]

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Novo Nordisk obtained FDA approval for its oral semaglutide (Wegovy) in December 2025, becoming the

[6][7]:

Indicator	Data
Approval Time	December 2025
Launch Time	Early January 2026
Administration Frequency	Once daily oral
Average Weight Loss Effect	16.6% (64 weeks)
Monthly Treatment Cost	$149 (discounts available)
Special Channel	Direct sales price of $149/month on TrumpRx website

Clinical data of the drug shows that one out of every three subjects achieved a weight loss of 20% or more, and currently no other oral GLP-1 therapy can match its weight loss effect[6].

Novo Nordisk’s capacity investment scale is approximately $8 billion, mainly focused on capacity expansion in Denmark and the United States[5]. However, in the face of Eli Lilly’s aggressive expansion, its supply chain advantages are being weakened.

Novo Nordisk is facing multiple challenges recently:

• Lost the Metsera bidding war to Pfizer (lost $10 billion in assets)
• Stock price fell more than 50% from its 52-week high
• Slowing sales growth in 2025

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According to market research data, Eli Lilly’s share in the weight-loss GLP-1 market has risen from 45% in 2024 to 48% in 2025, and is expected to reach 55% by 2030; while Novo Nordisk’s share has dropped from 50% to 45%, and is projected to fall to 40% by 2030[4].

1. Capacity Scale Advantage
   : The $50 billion vs $8 billion investment gap gives Eli Lilly stronger supply flexibility
2. Small Molecule Technology Route
   : As a non-peptide oral drug, Orforglipron has potential advantages of higher bioavailability and lower production costs compared to Novo Nordisk’s peptide oral route which relies on the penetration enhancer SNAC[1]
3. Price Competitiveness
   : Through the $299-$350/month pricing of Zepbound vials, it directly targets Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy ($149/month), but Eli Lilly offers more flexible dose options

1. First-Mover Advantage
   : As the first approved oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug, it has established physician and patient awareness
2. Weight Loss Effect Advantage
   : 16.6% vs 12.4% average weight loss effect
3. Brand Loyalty
   : The Wegovy brand has established a deep market foundation

The launch of oral formulations will further segment the market into:

Segmented Market	Applicable Products	Core Advantages
Severe Obesity	Injectable formulations (Zepbound/Wegovy)	Significant weight loss effect (20%+)
Mild Obesity/Maintenance Treatment	Oral formulations	Good compliance, high convenience
Price-Sensitive	Generics/Biosimilars	Cost advantage (patents expire in Canada and other regions starting from 2026)

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Time Node	Eli Lilly	Novo Nordisk
Q1	FDA approval decision for Orforglipron	Oral Wegovy volume growth in the U.S.
Q2	Potential launch of Orforglipron	European market review
Q3	Medicare Part D coverage takes effect	New indication expansion
Q4	Release of Retatrutide Phase III data	Intensified generic competition

By 2035, Eli Lilly is expected to overtake Novo Nordisk in market share through the following factors:

1. Product Portfolio Advantage
   : Combined strategy of Orforglipron (oral) + Zepbound (injectable) + Retatrutide (three-target)
2. Capacity Moat
   : Global production network formed by $50 billion investment
3. Pricing Strategy
   : Continuously reduce unit costs through scale effects
4. Channel Coverage
   : Dual-drive of DTC platform + health insurance coverage

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Eli Lilly’s global supply layout for its oral weight-loss drug Orforglipron will reshape the market competitive landscape through the following paths:

1. Breaking Administration Method Monopoly
   : Oral formulations provide a new option for patients who are unwilling to use injectable drugs, and are expected to expand the potential patient population by 30%-40%[7]

2. Accelerating Market Share Conversion
   : With the supply chain advantage formed by the $50 billion capacity investment, Eli Lilly is expected to overtake Novo Nordisk in market share between 2026 and 2027

3. Driving Industry Price Reduction Trend
   : Eli Lilly’s aggressive pricing strategy (starting from $299/month) will force Novo Nordisk to follow suit with price cuts, benefiting a wider range of patients

4. Spawning a New Market Pattern
   : From “duopoly competition” to differentiation into a “multi-level market”, mild obesity prevention and long-term weight management will become new growth drivers

Overall, Eli Lilly’s global supply layout marks the entry of the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market into the “Oral Era”, which will not only intensify direct competition with Novo Nordisk, but also drive the entire industry towards greater convenience, accessibility, and inclusiveness.

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[0] Wall Street CN - “GLP-1 Spillover, AI Empowerment… Will Biomedicine Be the ‘Alternative’ to Tech Stocks in 2026?” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-07/doc-inhfnktp6277084.shtml)
[1] YiYao - “It’s 2026, Is GLP-1 Still Worth Investing In?” (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KIQJOR8J05563PAV.html)
[2] Sina Finance - “Global Top Pharmaceutical Companies Race to Develop the First Oral Weight-Loss Drug” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2025-12-23/doc-inhcuyuc6681789.shtml)
[3] AInvest - “Eli Lilly’s Strategic Edge in the Oral GLP-1 Weight-Loss Market” (https://www.ainvest.com/news/eli-lilly-strategic-edge-oral-glp-1-weight-loss-market-supply-readiness-long-term-market-dominance-2601/)
[4] Observer Reporter - “Eli Lilly Unleashes Volume-Led Strategy to Cement Obesity Market Dominance in 2026” (https://stocks.observer-reporter.com/observerreporter/article/marketminute-2026-1-6-the-trillion-dollar-pivot-eli-lilly-unleashes-volume-led-strategy-to-cement-obesity-market-dominance-in-2026)
[5] Chronicle Journal - “Eli Lilly Solidifies Dominance as Obesity Drug Boom Enters New Era” (http://markets.chroniclejournal.com/chroniclejournal/article/marketminute-2026-1-7-the-trillion-dollar-treatment-eli-lilly-solidifies-dominance-as-obesity-drug-boom-enters-new-era)
[6] TIKR - “Novo Nordisk Stock Surges Almost 6% After GLP-1 Approval” (https://www.tikr.com/zh/blog/novo-nordisk-stock-surges-almost-6-after-glp-1-approval)
[7] Taiwan News - “LifeMD Expands Collaboration with Novo Nordisk” (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/6276550)