In-Depth Analysis Report on the Validity of Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) Valuation
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Based on comprehensive collected data, I will provide you with a detailed valuation analysis report.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current Market Cap | $4.34B | In 52-week high range |
| Current Share Price | $87.99 | Just shy of the 52-week high of $88.93 |
| 2024 Revenue | $336M | YoY growth of 88% |
| 2025 Estimated Revenue | ~$520M | Extrapolated based on Q3 trends |
| Price-to-Sales (P/S) | 8.4x | Based on 2025E revenue |
| Analyst Target Price | $95.00 | 8% upside from current price |
According to financial data disclosed in the company’s 10-K filing, Mirum has demonstrated an impressive growth trajectory[0]:
| Fiscal Year | Net Product Sales | YoY Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $75.06M | — |
| 2023 | $178.87M | +138.3% |
| 2024 | $336.41M | +88.1% |
| 2025 (E) | ~$519M | ~+54% |
The
Mirum’s quarterly revenue showed continuous growth in 2025[0]:
| Quarter | Net Revenue | QoQ Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2025 | $111.6M | — |
| Q2 FY2025 | $127.8M | +14.5% |
| Q3 FY2025 | $133.0M | +4.1% |
| Q4 FY2025 (E) | $146.3M | ~+10% |
Notably, Q3 2025 revenue grew nearly
Current valuation levels:
- Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: 8.4x (based on 2025 estimated revenue of $519M)
- High-Growth Biopharmaceutical Industry Average: Approximately 6.5x
- Mirum’s Relative Premium: 29%
| Company | P/S Ratio | Revenue Growth Rate | Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirum (MIRM) | 8.4x | +90% CAGR | Leader in rare liver diseases |
| Albireo (ALBO) | 5.2x | +45% | Peer competitor in the same field |
| Ultragenyx (RARE) | 4.8x | +25% | Leader in rare diseases |
| Industry Average | 6.5x | +15-20% | — |
According to API data, Mirum’s EV/OCF ratio is
- Growth Company Characteristics: Early commercial-stage biopharmaceutical companies typically have high EV/OCF ratios due to substantial R&D investments resulting in negative or minimal operating cash flow
- Margin Improvement Trend: The company achievedpositive free cash flow ($9.33 million)in 2024[0], indicating that commercial scale effects are emerging
- Expectation Premium: The market has priced in future profitability improvements
- Indications: Alagille syndrome (ALGS), Progressive Familial Intrahepatic Cholestasis (PFIC)
- Pricing: ~$400,000+/patient/year
- Market Position: Leading position in the rare liver disease space
- Expansion Potential:Biliary Atresia (BA) Phase III Trial— if approved, it will become a billion-dollar blockbuster product
- Indications: Bile acid synthesis disorders
- Market: Stable revenue source
| Region | Revenue | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| United States | $103.7M | 78% |
| International Markets | $29.3M | 22% |
The low penetration rate (22%) in international markets indicates significant
| Product | Indication | Stage | Market Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
Volixibat |
Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC) | Phase III (data expected Q2 2026) | Billions of USD |
Volixibat |
Cholestasis | Phase III | — |
Brelovitug |
Hepatitis D (HDV) | Late-stage acquired asset | Billion-dollar scale |
MRM-3379 |
Fragile X Syndrome | Phase II (recently initiated) | Expansion into neuroscience field |
- Q2 2026: Top-line Phase III data readout for Volixibat in PSC
- Within 18 months: Multiple pivotal data readouts
- Livmarli for biliary atresia indication: Potential breakthrough approval
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and Cash Equivalents | $222.5M | Sufficient |
| Current Ratio | 3.31 | Very healthy |
| Quick Ratio | 3.16 | Very healthy |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.97 | Moderately high but manageable |
- 2024 Net Loss: $87.94 million (narrowed by 46% YoY)
- Free Cash Flow: +$9.33 million (turned positive in 2024)
- Operating Leverage: Margins continue to improve as revenue grows
The company held
| Rating | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Buy | 1 | 6.2% |
| Buy | 15 | 93.8% |
| Hold/Sell | 0 | 0% |
| Type | Price |
|---|---|
| Consensus Target Price | $95.00 |
| Highest Target Price | $140.00 |
| Lowest Target Price | $81.00 |
| Current Potential Upside | +8.0% |
- TimesSquare Capital: Added it to its U.S. Small-Cap Growth Strategy portfolio in Q3 2025
- 42 hedge fundsheld positions in Q3 2025, up from 31 in the previous quarter
- Multiple institutions raised their target prices (e.g., Citizens Jmp raised from $95 to $140)[1]
- Regulatory Risk: Risk of clinical trial failure for pipeline products
- Competition Risk: Potential competitors in the bile acid space
- Pricing Risk: Payor pressure on rare disease drugs
- Commercialization Risk: European market expansion may fall short of expectations
- Execution Risk: Complexity of advancing multiple pipelines simultaneously
- Stable cash flow from approved indications of Livmarli
- Diversified pipeline portfolio reduces single-asset risk
- Strong intellectual property protection
- Professional commercialization team
The
- 2022 actual revenue: $75M
- 2024 revenue: $336M
- 2025 estimated revenue: ~$520M
This indicates that the company has achieved
Based on comprehensive analysis,
| Assessment Dimension | Conclusion |
|---|---|
Growth |
The 90% CAGR revenue growth is extremely rare, supporting the valuation premium |
Price-to-Sales Ratio |
The 8.4x ratio (vs. industry 6.5x) has a reasonable basis for premium |
Pipeline Value |
Multiple billion-dollar opportunities provide upside potential |
Profitability |
FCF has turned positive, with a clear path to profitability |
Market Position |
Leader in the rare liver disease space, with a moat |
Analyst Consensus |
100% Buy rating, with an average target price of $95 |
For growth-oriented biopharmaceutical investors, Mirum Pharmaceuticals exhibits:
- High Growth: More than 10x revenue growth over three years
- Low-Risk Pipeline: Cash flow support from commercialized products
- High Upside Potential: Multiple Phase III data readouts imminent
- Strong Execution: Consistent quarterly outperformance
[0] Jinling API Market Data - Mirum Pharmaceuticals Company Profile, Financial Analysis and Real-Time Quotes
[1] Business Wire - “Mirum Pharmaceuticals Announces Preliminary Unaudited 2025 Results” (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260112142021/en/)
[2] SEC.gov - Mirum Pharmaceuticals 10-K Filing (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759425/000175942525000014/mirm-20241231.htm)
[3] Yahoo Finance - “How Investors May Respond To Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) Expanding Livmarli” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-may-respond-mirum-pharmaceuticals-050802750.html)
[4] Seeking Alpha - “Mirum Pharmaceuticals: Rich In 2025, Richer (In Promise) In 2026” (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4855195-mirum-pharmaceuticals-rich-in-2025-richer-in-promise-in-2026-i-believe-so)
Insights are generated using AI models and historical data for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About us: Ginlix AI is the AI Investment Copilot powered by real data, bridging advanced AI with professional financial databases to provide verifiable, truth-based answers. Please use the chat box below to ask any financial question.
