Analysis of the Gap Between Market Expectations and Actual Business Contributions of AI Concept Stocks

Based on the information collected above, I will conduct a systematic analysis for you.

According to the abnormal stock price fluctuation announcement released by BlueFocus on January 12, 2026, the company clearly stated that “at this stage, the proportion of the company’s AI-driven related revenue to the overall operating revenue of the company is small, and it has no material impact on the company’s overall operating conditions” [1]. However, from the performance of the secondary market, the company’s stock price has surged by as much as 216.26% in the past six months and 154.88% in the past year [0], showing typical characteristics of a “concept-driven” rally.

Indicator	Value	Practical Significance
2025 H1 AI-driven Revenue	RMB 1.57 billion	Accounts for a small proportion of total revenue (approximately 4.85%) [2]
2025 Full-Year AI-driven Revenue Target	RMB 3-5 billion	Optimistic expectation, but there is doubt about whether it can be fulfilled
H1 Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company	RMB 96.44 million	Down 47.33% year-on-year, showing “revenue growth without profit growth”
Institutional Forecasts for 2025 Net Profit	RMB 192-459 million	Significant divergence among institutions [2]

: Although the company has set a long-term target of exceeding RMB 10 billion in AI-driven revenue, the current contribution of AI business to total revenue is extremely limited. Moreover, the company is in the operational dilemma of “revenue growth without profit growth”, and its cash flow situation continues to deteriorate (net cash flow from operating activities is -RMB 859 million) [2].

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According to the latest market data, the AI Application Index (8841683.WI) rose 34.58% cumulatively in 2025, and the Wind Computing Power Theme Index surged by as much as 80% during the year, with 22 AI concept stocks doubling in price throughout the year [3][4]. However, fundamental data shows obvious differentiation:

Enterprise Type	Performance	Valuation Status
Upstream Computing Power Leaders (NVIDIA, Optical Modules)	Performance has been fulfilled, in the profit release period	Relatively reasonable valuation
AI Application Concept Stocks	Some companies are still in a loss-making state	Valuation significantly deviates from fundamentals
Companies Without Substantive Business	Supported by concepts during the “performance vacuum period”	High valuation bubble risk

1. Divergence Between Performance and Valuation
   : CapeCloud (with a 378.68% gain during the year) and VeriSilicon (with a 143.47% gain during the year) both reported losses in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]
2. Growing Divergence Among Institutions
   : Different securities firms have huge differences in their forecasts for BlueFocus’s 2025 net profit, ranging from RMB 192 million to RMB 459 million [2]
3. Overheated Concept Speculation
   : A MIT report shows that 95% of enterprises failed to obtain actual returns from generative AI investments, and only 5% of projects achieved large-scale revenue growth [6]

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According to the analysis by Dong Zhongyun, Chief Economist of AVIC Securities, the current AI industry is in the transition period from the first to the second stage of prosperity investment: the stage of “rising capital expenditure and rising valuation” is coming to an end, and the market will gradually shift to “performance-driven” [7]. This means:

• Valuation-driven phase is coming to an end
  : Zhang Kexing, General Manager of Beijing Grey Investment Management Co., Ltd., pointed out that the “valuation-driven” phase of the AI sector may be coming to an end [4]
• Performance verification period is approaching
  : The next 2-3 years will be a critical verification period, during which AI needs to demonstrate broader and deeper practical value [8]
• Growing Differentiation
  : Leading AI companies continue to take the lead by virtue of technical barriers, but small and medium-sized concept stocks lacking substantive performance support face the risk of valuation correction [9]

The shift from “concept-driven” to “performance-driven” will become the main theme of AI investment in 2026:

Investment Logic	Focus Areas	Risk Warnings
Hardware Segment	Optical modules, memory chips, servers	Fluctuations in capital expenditure, delivery falling short of expectations
Platform Layer	Model capabilities, commercialization capabilities	Technology iteration falling short of expectations
Application Layer	ROI verification, revenue conversion	Implementation efficiency lower than expected

Neuberger Berman points out that AI investment in 2026 needs to pay more attention to ROI and cash flow quality, and capital will be more “performance-oriented” rather than simply raising valuations based on themes as a whole [5].

: There are significant differences between the current AI market and the 1999 Internet bubble [8]:

Comparison Dimension	1999-2000 Internet Bubble	Current AI Market
Valuation Level	S&P 500 Information Index reached a peak PE ratio of 58.1x	Currently about 30.4x, far lower than the historical peak
Profitability	Profitability of technology companies was weak	Current ROE and profit margins have improved significantly
Macro Environment	Continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve punctured the bubble	Interest rate cut cycle supports valuations
Performance Fulfillment	Most companies had no substantive profits	Profit fulfillment has started in some segments

: Although there is a periodic valuation premium in the current AI industry, its long-term growth potential is still worth looking forward to. The industry is still in the “policy expectation - initial verification” stage, and the next stage will focus on the prosperity diffusion of the platform layer and application layer [8].

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For AI concept stocks like BlueFocus that are

, investors should:

• Verify Revenue Structure
  : Focus on the absolute value and proportion of AI business revenue
• Verify Profitability
  : Avoid investing in enterprises with “revenue growth without profit growth”
• Beware of Valuation Bubbles
  : Be cautious about high-gain stocks lacking performance support
• Pay Attention to Management Statements
  : BlueFocus’s announcement clearly states that it “has no material impact on overall operations” [1]

For AI targets with

, investors can focus on the following directions:

Sub-sector	Leading Enterprises	Core Logic
Computing Infrastructure	NVIDIA, Foxconn Industrial Internet	Order schedule extends to the year after next, with high performance certainty [4]
AI Chips	Cambricon, VeriSilicon	High technical barriers, large space for domestic substitution [10]
Optical Modules	Zhongji InnoLight, Tianfu Communication	Sustained boom in overseas computing power [5]
Vertical Applications	AI solutions for healthcare and finance	Solve specific pain points, with clear commercialization paths [6]

According to SPD Bank International’s 2026 Investment Strategy Report, AI investment should focus on the following directions [10]:

• Computing Power Base
  : Focus on infrastructure such as chips, servers, and optical modules
• Intelligent Driving
  : LiDAR and intelligent driving chips benefit from penetration rate improvement
• Edge AI
  : Incremental opportunities brought by Apple’s iPhone innovation cycle
• AI Efficiency Optimization
  : Enterprises engaged in model compression, edge computing, and data governance

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The gap between the actual business contributions and market expectations of AI concept stocks is having a profound impact on investment decisions:

1. Rising Short-term Risks
   : Valuation correction pressure emerges, and concept stocks lacking performance support face the risk of “valuation compression”
2. Shift in Investment Logic
   : Shift from concept speculation to performance verification, and companies with real profitability will stand out
3. Growing Differentiation
   : Significant differentiation will occur within the AI industry, with leading companies continuing to take the lead and tail-end concept stocks being eliminated
4. Long-term Prospects Remain Positive
   : Although there is short-term adjustment pressure, the AI industry is still in the early stage of development with broad long-term growth space

: At the current stage, investors should prioritize AI targets that , and avoid high-risk stocks purely driven by concept speculation. As warned by professionals: “Companies with real profitability and performance fulfillment logic still have upside potential in their stock prices; however, companies that rely solely on concepts and narratives may struggle to sustain subsequent rallies.” [4]

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[1] Sina Finance - BlueFocus: At this stage, AI-driven related revenue accounts for a small proportion of the company’s total revenue (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-12/doc-inhhaeym6677036.shtml)

[2] Eastmoney - BlueFocus 2025 H1 Report: Behind the surge in AI-driven revenue and nearly 50% decline in net profit (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20250919084816127229820)

[3] Time Finance - Review of 2025: Who are the AI application bull stocks? 12 companies’ stock prices doubled during the year (https://www.tfcaijing.com/article/page/79652f6a7336784f58366c66456e485a7443314d54413d3d)

[4] Sina Finance - Is there a bubble in AI investment in 2026? (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/wbstock/2025-12-30/doc-inhepszs7291109.shtml)

[5] Sina Finance - Computing power stocks doubled frequently in 2025, and there may be valuation digestion pressure in 2026 (https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/1650111241/625ab30902001fbvu)

[6] Flush Finance - Why did AI stocks like NVIDIA plummet last night? This MIT report is a major “culprit”! (https://m.cls.cn/detail/2120393)

[7] China Business Journal - Is there a bubble in AI investment in 2026? (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512293604834069.html)

[8] Securities Times - AI valuation premium: “Boom” or “Bubble”? (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3504922.html)

[9] Securities Times - The “carnival and hidden worries” of the US stock market’s $70 trillion market capitalization (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3563781.html)

[10] SPD Bank International - 2026 Technology Industry Outlook: AI algorithm iteration expands computing power base (https://www.spdbi.com/getfile/index/action/images/name/科技行业2026年展望：AI算法迭代扩容算力底座_浦银国际.pdf)