Investment Risk Assessment Report on Abnormal Fluctuations of Aerospace Science and Technology (000901.SZ) Shares

Aerospace Science and Technology (000901.SZ) released a stock trading abnormal fluctuation announcement on January 12, 2026, stating that the cumulative deviation of the closing price increase of the company’s shares over three consecutive trading days exceeded 20%. After verification, the company’s recent operating conditions are normal, and no significant changes have occurred in its internal and external operating environment. The company has clearly warned of the risk of a pullback after the sharp rise in stock price[1].

• The short-term stock price gain severely deviates from fundamentals, posing the risk of irrational speculation
• The company’s performance has plunged while its stock price has risen against the trend, forming a severe divergence
• The stock is at a historical high, and technical indicators such as RSI show overbought signals
• Turnover rate remains at a high level, with obvious characteristics of “greater fool” speculation

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Financial Indicator	Data	YoY Change	Risk Assessment
1-Year Gain	246.19%	—	🔴 Severe Divergence
6-Month Gain	185.25%	—	🔴 Severe Divergence
Static P/E Ratio	168.17x	Industry Average 94.74x	⚠️ 77% Overvalued
Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio	6.47x	—	⚠️ Relatively High
Return on Equity (ROE)	3.90%	—	⚠️ Relatively Low
Net Profit Margin	2.77%	—	⚠️ Declining
Q1-Q3 2025 Net Profit	—	-62.77%	🔴 Sharp Decline

Company Profile Data[0]

The Q1-Q3 2025 financial data of Aerospace Science and Technology reveals typical “double whammy” characteristics:

• Operating Revenue:
  RMB 8,835,303,700, a year-over-year decrease of 4.32%[0]
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company:
  RMB 209,142,600, a year-over-year plunge of 62.77%[0]

In stark contrast to the deteriorating fundamentals, the company’s stock price has surged 246.19% since November 2025, far exceeding the 6.33% gain of the Shanghai Composite Index and the 35.07% average gain of the Shenwan Military Industry Index during the same period[0]. This severe divergence between performance and stock price indicates that the current rally is driven mainly by market sentiment and concept speculation, rather than fundamental improvements.

From a valuation perspective, the current static P/E ratio of Aerospace Science and Technology is 168.17x, representing a 77% premium over the 94.74x average of the Shenwan Military Industry Index[0]. This implies:

• The market has extremely high expectations for the company’s future performance growth
• Once these expectations are unmet, there is huge room for valuation correction
• The current stock price has already priced in 3-5 years of future growth expectations

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Technical Indicator	Current Value	Risk Threshold	Signal Judgment
RSI(14)	78.01	>70 (Overbought Zone)	🔴 Severe Overbought
20-Day Moving Average Deviation	+7.3%	>20% (Warning)	⚠️ Relatively High
20-Day Annualized Volatility	35.52%	>30% (High Volatility)	🔴 High Risk
MACD	1.7361	Bearish Crossover Signal	⚠️ Potential Weakening

Calculated Based on Historical Price Data[0]

The current market exhibits typical “greater fool” characteristics:

• Sustained High Turnover Rate:
  Recent daily average turnover rate has remained in the 17-20% range, far exceeding normal levels[0]
• Abnormally Large Trading Volume:
  Daily trading volume frequently reaches tens of billions of RMB[0]
• Obvious “Greater Fool” Speculation:
  The “pass the parcel” effect is prominent

From a technical analysis perspective, Aerospace Science and Technology’s stock currently exhibits the following characteristics:

1. Severe Overbought:
   RSI indicator remains above 70, with the stock entering a high-risk zone
2. Deviation from Moving Average:
   Although short-term moving averages are rising, the deviation is significant, creating a need for regression
3. Increased Volatility:
   Annualized volatility exceeds 35%, indicating extremely unstable market sentiment
4. Risk of Bearish Divergence:
   If a MACD bearish crossover occurs, it may trigger accelerated decline

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Recently, the aerospace and defense sector has seen a batch of abnormal fluctuations, with multiple companies issuing risk warning announcements[2][3]:

Company	Stock Code	Cumulative Gain	P/E Ratio	Performance Status	Risk Rating
Aerospace Power	600343	200.80%	Loss	Deepening Loss	🔴🔴🔴 Extreme
Aerospace Electronics	600879	167.63%	172.7x	Net Profit -62.77% YoY	🔴🔴🔴 Extreme
China Satellite	600118	156.07%	Extremely High	Net Profit Excluding Non-Recurring Gains and Losses: RMB 5.47 Million	🔴🔴🔴 Extreme
Aerospace Science and Technology	000901	246.19%	168.17x	Sharp Net Profit Decline	🔴🔴🔴 Extreme
China Satcom	601698	108.64%	Relatively High	Net Profit -40.58% YoY	🔴🔴 High
Aerospace Changfeng	600855	65.95%	Loss	Loss	⚠️⚠️ High

Risk Warning Announcements and Public Information of Each Company[1][2][3]

Through comparative analysis, the following common risks in the sector can be identified:

1. Divergence Between Performance and Stock Price:
   Almost all companies have seen declining performance, but their stock prices have soared against the trend
2. Severe Valuation Deviation:
   P/E ratios are generally over 50% higher than the industry average
3. Driven by Concept Speculation:
   Concepts such as commercial aerospace have been overhyped, but their actual business proportion is limited
4. Frequent Company Risk Warnings:
   Multiple companies have proactively issued trading risk warnings[2][3]

Take Aerospace Electronics (600879) as an example[0]:

• From November 27, 2025 to January 9, 2026, the cumulative gain reached 167.63%
• During the same period, the Shenwan Military Industry Index rose only 35.07%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 6.33%
• The company’s net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 62.77% year-over-year
• The static P/E ratio is 172.7x, 82% higher than the industry average[0]

The case of Aerospace Power (600343) is even more extreme[3]:

• The cumulative gain deviation reached 200% within 30 trading days
• It reported a loss of RMB 109,252,500 in the first three quarters, with losses deepening
• The P/B ratio is 22.94x, significantly higher than peers
• Its main business does not involve commercial aerospace, with related revenue accounting for less than 2% of total revenue[3]

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• RSI Indicator:
  Remains above 70 and enters the overbought zone
• Deviation Rate:
  Stock price deviates from the 20-day moving average by more than 20%
• Turnover Rate:
  Daily average turnover rate remains above 15%
• Volatility:
  20-day annualized volatility exceeds 30%
• Volume-Price Divergence:
  Trading volume shrinks when new highs are hit
• Moving Average Bearish Crossover:
  Short-term moving average crosses below long-term moving average

• Performance Decline:
  Year-over-year net profit decrease exceeds 30%
• High Valuation:
  P/E ratio is over 50% higher than the industry average
• Concept Clarification:
  Company clarifies no related business or that the business proportion is low
• Frequent Warnings:
  Company continuously issues risk warning announcements
• Insider Selling:
  Important shareholders or executives reduce their shareholdings
• Capital Flow:
  Main funds continue to have net outflows

• Media Hype:
  Financial media extensively follow and report on the stock
• Social Discussion:
  Investor forum sentiment is overheated
• New Investors Entering:
  Number of new accounts surges
• Leverage Increase:
  Margin trading and short selling balances rise rapidly

┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Risk Level   Recommended Position Ratio  Response Measures       │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  Low Risk     30-50%                     Accumulate on dips       │
│  Medium Risk  15-30%                     Hold cautiously          │
│  High Risk    0-15%                      Gradually reduce positions │
│  Extreme Risk 0%                         Liquidate positions      │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

• Batch Profit-Taking:
  Take 1/3 profit when up 50%; take 1/3 profit when up 100%; liquidate all when up 150%
• Trailing Stop-Profit:
  Execute profit-taking when pulling back 8-10% from the highest point
• Strict Stop-Loss:
  Immediately execute stop-loss if position loss exceeds 10-15%
• No Averaging Down Principle:
  Never average down during a downtrend

1. Avoid Pure Concept Stocks:
   Targets where related concept business accounts for less than 30% of main business revenue
2. Avoid Loss-Making Stocks:
   Targets with consecutive two-year losses or sharp current losses
3. Avoid High-Valuation Stocks:
   Targets with dynamic P/E ratio over 50% higher than the industry average
4. Avoid High-Priced Stocks:
   Targets with cumulative gain over 100% in the past 3 months
5. Focus on Liquidity:
   Exercise caution when participating in targets with daily average trading volume below RMB 100 million

                    ┌──────────────────┐
                    │  Detect Abnormal Fluctuations │
                    └────────┬─────────┘
                             ↓
            ┌────────────────┴────────────────┐
            ↓                                 ↓
    ┌───────▼───────┐               ┌─────────▼─────────┐
    │ Technical Warning? │               │ Fundamental Warning? │
    │ • RSI>70      │               │ • YoY Net Profit Drop >30% │
    │ • Turnover Rate>15%  │               │ • Valuation Deviation >50% │
    │ • Gain>100%   │               │ • Company Risk Warning Issued │
    └───────┬───────┘               └─────────┬─────────┘
            │                                 │
            └─────────────┬───────────────────┘
                          ↓
               ┌───────────▼───────────┐
               │  Initiate Risk Response │
               └───────────┬───────────┘
                           ↓
        ┌─────────────────┼─────────────────┐
        ↓                 ↓                 ↓
   ┌────▼────┐      ┌─────▼─────┐     ┌────▼────┐
   │ Immediate Profit-Taking │      │ Evaluate Position Reduction │     │ Stop-Loss and Exit │
   │ 50% of Position │      │ 30% of Position │     │ Liquidate All │
   └─────────┘      └───────────┘     └─────────┘

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Evaluation Dimension	Score	Conclusion
Fundamentals	🔴 Extremely Poor	Net profit plunged, severe divergence with stock price
Valuation	🔴 Extremely High	P/E ratio 168x, severe deviation from industry average
Technicals	🔴 Extremely High	RSI overbought, high volatility
Capital Flow	🔴 Extremely High	Abnormal turnover rate, obvious “greater fool” characteristics
News	⚠️ Negative	Company warned of pullback risk
Composite Rating	🔴 Avoid	Recommendation: Liquidate positions and exit

1. Nature of Risk:
   Aerospace Science and Technology is currently experiencing a typical capital-driven irrational rally, with fundamentals unable to support the current stock price, posing huge valuation regression risk.

2. Downside Potential:
   If calculated based on the industry average valuation level (94.74x P/E), the stock price may drop 40-60% from the current level.

3. Time Window:
   Given the large amount of accumulated profit-taking orders, any negative news could trigger a stampede-like decline. It is recommended to exit as soon as possible.

4. Sector Risk:
   The aerospace and defense sector as a whole faces similar risks, and investors should remain highly vigilant.

• Existing Investors:
  It is recommended to reduce positions in batches during rebounds, and set a 10% stop-loss line
• Non-Investors:
  It is not recommended to chase highs at the current level; wait patiently for valuation regression
• Risk-Preferring Investors:
  If participating, strictly control position size (no more than 10%) and set a stop-loss

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[1] Securities Times - Aerospace Science and Technology: Risk of Pullback After Sharp Stock Price Increase (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-12/doc-inhhaeyi8198084.shtml)

[2] Shanghai Securities News - Stock Trading Abnormal Fluctuation Announcement of Aerospace Times Electronics Technology Co., Ltd. (https://paper.cnstock.com/html/2026-01-10/content_2168819.htm)

[3] Tencent Securities - Announcement on Severe Abnormal Fluctuations in Stock Trading and Risk Warning of Shaanxi Aerospace Power Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. (https://file.finance.qq.com/finance/hs/pdf/2026/01/01/1224914764.PDF)

[4] Sina Finance - Commercial Aerospace Sector Surges, Multiple Stocks Issue Risk Warnings (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2026-01-06/doc-inhfkskh5780523.shtml)

[5] China Finance Network - Recent Stock Trading Risk Warning Announcement of Beijing Aerospace Changfeng Co., Ltd. (https://www.cfi.net.cn/p20260112002207.html)