Sanfu Co., Ltd. (603938) Limit-Up Analysis: Policy Dividends Drive Domestic Substitution, Strong Fundamentals but Beware of Pullback Risks

On January 7, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement, announcing the initiation of an

into imported originating from Japan [1][2][3]. This major policy positive news became the direct trigger for Sanfu Co., Ltd.'s stock price hitting the limit up. As one of the applicant entities for this investigation, Tangshan Sanfu Electronic Materials Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sanfu Co., Ltd., has an annual production capacity of of 6N purity electronic-grade DCS, and its products have successfully passed certification from top customers such as [4].

From the industrial chain perspective, the current annual domestic demand for semiconductor-grade DCS is approximately 8,000 tons, but domestic supply is only 2,800 tons, with an import dependence rate as high as

, mainly relying on overseas enterprises such as Germany’s Wacker and Japan’s Shin-Etsu [5]. The anti-dumping investigation launched by the Ministry of Commerce will significantly accelerate the domestic substitution process, creating a huge market opportunity window for leading domestic enterprises such as Sanfu Co., Ltd.

Sanfu Co., Ltd.'s fundamentals show a multi-point growth pattern, building a solid value support system. In terms of potassium series products, as a leading domestic potassium hydroxide enterprise, the company’s sales volume in the first half of 2025 surged 70% year-on-year, and this segment contributed more than 50% of the company’s revenue. The 120,000-ton-per-year potassium hydroxide project has been officially put into operation, which is expected to save 80 million yuan in costs annually [0].

In the silicon series product segment, the company’s total trichlorosilane production capacity reaches

, including 170,000 tons per year of photovoltaic-grade (second in the industry) and 10,000 tons per year of semiconductor-grade. At the same time, the company has locked in leading photovoltaic enterprises such as through long-term contracts, with prices stable at 17,500-17,800 yuan per ton, effectively ensuring future revenue certainty [0].

In terms of financial data, the company’s Q3 net profit increased significantly by 162.25% year-on-year, showing strong profit growth momentum [0]. The dual drive of fundamentals and policy benefits constitutes the core logic for the continuous strong performance of the company’s stock price.

Sanfu Co., Ltd.'s stock price has shown typical characteristics of a

recently. As of January 12, 2026, the stock price hit a record high of 27.81 yuan and reached the daily price limit up. The current price deviates significantly from the 20-day moving average (19.73 yuan), 50-day moving average (19.34 yuan), and 200-day moving average (15.81 yuan), creating a technical demand for a pullback [0].

From the perspective of short-term gains, the stock has increased by 30.84% in 5 days, 51.43% in a month, and as high as 160.14% in a year. Excessive short-term gains mean that more profit-taking orders have accumulated, and pullback risks cannot be ignored [0].

In terms of trading volume, today’s trading volume reached 49.3 million shares, which is 2.53 times the average daily trading volume (19.49 million shares), showing extremely high market participation. The turnover on the Dragon and Tiger List on January 9 reached 1.409 billion yuan, with a turnover rate as high as 14.75%, far exceeding the normal level, reflecting intense chip exchange and obvious long-short divergence [6].

The anti-dumping investigation into imported DCS from Japan launched by the Ministry of Commerce marks the entry of the domestic substitution strategy for key semiconductor materials into a substantive promotion stage. As one of the applicant entities, Sanfu Co., Ltd.'s layout in the electronic-grade DCS field (500 tons per year production capacity, certification from TSMC/Yangtze Memory Technologies) makes it a core beneficiary of this policy dividend. From an industrial logic perspective, the anti-dumping investigation will gradually restructure the domestic DCS market pattern, and domestic manufacturers are expected to achieve rapid growth in market share under policy protection [5].

Although the main funds had a net outflow of 106 million yuan on January 9, showing obvious signs of profit-taking, chip distribution data shows the degree of deep institutional participation: the number of shareholders is 22,300, a decrease of 10% (2,476 fewer) compared with the first half of the year, and the institutional participation rate is as high as 56.28%, in a

[6]. This pattern of “main funds selling, institutions taking over” indicates that there are divergences in the market regarding the medium- and long-term value of the stock, but the overall tendency is to recognize its growth logic.

Currently, the company’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) reaches 126.48x, and price-to-book ratio is 4.08x, significantly higher than the average level of the chemical industry [0]. Although growth can partially explain the high valuation, the current stock price has a premium of over 30% compared with the main funds’ cost (19.32 yuan), meaning that subsequent capital entering the market faces a high cost disadvantage. The risk of valuation regression is a negative factor that investors must pay attention to.

: On January 9, the main funds had a net outflow of 106 million yuan, and the main funds have realized a floating profit of over 30%, with a strong motivation for profit-taking [6]. The net outflow of extra-large orders was 71 million yuan, and the net outflow of large orders was 35 million yuan, indicating that institutional investors are distributing chips at high levels.

: The sharp increase of 30.84% in 5 days and 51.43% in a month has accumulated a large number of profit-taking orders. Once market sentiment turns, it may trigger a rapid pullback.

: The 14.75% turnover rate far exceeds the normal level, with fierce long-short games. The funds driving the stock price to the limit up mainly come from small and medium orders, while the main funds are net selling. This pattern of “retail investors taking over, institutions selling” deserves vigilance [6].

: The 126x PE ratio is at a relatively high level in the chemical industry, and the current stock price may have fully reflected future growth expectations.

: The anti-dumping investigation into Japanese DCS by the Ministry of Commerce will last until January 2027, during which the domestic substitution process will continue to accelerate, creating sustained performance growth momentum for the company [5].

: The commissioning of the 120,000-ton potassium hydroxide project will bring annual cost savings of 80 million yuan. Combined with the improvement of production capacity utilization of semiconductor-grade trichlorosilane, the company is expected to achieve volume and price growth.

: If the 2025 annual performance forecast exceeds expectations, it may become a catalyst for a second pull-up of the stock price.

The direct catalyst for Sanfu Co., Ltd.'s this limit up is the anti-dumping investigation into imported DCS from Japan launched by the Ministry of Commerce on January 7, 2026. As the applicant entity, the company will significantly benefit from the accelerated domestic substitution process. The company has strong fundamentals, with a clear dual-drive pattern of potassium and silicon products, a 162.25% year-on-year increase in Q3 net profit, and the 120,000-ton new production capacity has been commissioned [0].

However, capital flow data shows that main funds are net selling at high levels, and the 14.75% turnover rate reflects intense long-short divergence. The current stock price has a premium of over 30% compared with the main funds’ cost, and the 126x PE valuation is relatively high. Excessive short-term gains mean that pullback risks cannot be ignored, and investors need to pay close attention to the subsequent flow of main funds and changes in trading volume [6].

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[0] Jinling Analysis Database - Market price, trading volume, company financial data and technical indicator analysis

[1] Xinhua News Agency - Ministry of Commerce announces initiation of anti-dumping investigation into imported dichlorosilane (DCS) originating from Japan (https://www.news.cn/world/20260107/0f84cc54754f442bbe9cf84f03791bdd/c.html)

[2] Sina Finance - Ministry of Commerce: Initiates anti-dumping investigation into imported dichlorosilane (DCS) originating from Japan (https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/roll/2026-01-07/doc-inhfnktt7544682.shtml)

[3] Investing.com - Ministry of Commerce: Initiates anti-dumping investigation into imported dichlorosilane (DCS) originating from Japan (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3153978)

[4] Eastmoney - On January 7, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into imports originating from Japan (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260109133853696065740)

[5] CLS.com - China initiates anti-dumping investigation into Japanese dichlorosilane (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2251201)

[6] NetEase - Hidden Divergence in Limit-Up? In-depth Analysis of Sanfu Co., Ltd. (603938) Trend on January 9 (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KISFJBDI055666U7.html)