Analysis of the Sustainability of Guoxia Technology's "Non-Binding Loan" Business Model

Based on the information I have obtained, I will now provide a detailed analysis of the sustainability of Guoxia Technology’s “Non-Binding Loan” business model.

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Guoxia Technology was founded in 2019, and is an artificial intelligence-driven renewable energy solution provider with a core business in energy storage system integration. The company launched its global offering on December 8, 2025, and plans to list on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1].

The core characteristics of its “Non-Binding Loan” business model are as follows:

Period	Total Loans Provided to Third Parties	Loans Provided to Potential Customers (of the above total)
2022	RMB 1.6 million	Approximately RMB 1.6 million
2023	RMB 7.1 million	Approximately RMB 3.4 million
2024	RMB 57.8 million	Approximately RMB 55.7 million (accounting for 96.4%)
As of June 30, 2025	RMB 15.8 million	Approximately RMB 15.4 million

• Provided loans of RMB 3.5 million, RMB 3.5 million, and RMB 4.5 million to industry participants K, L, and M respectively
• Provided an interest-free loan of RMB 3.6 million to industry participant J, which was extended after the original short-term maturity [2]

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According to the prospectus disclosure, the

of this loan business is: [2].

In essence, this model is

aimed at securing business cooperation opportunities, but it has the following issues:

1. No Purchase Binding
   : Borrowers are not required to commit to purchasing Guoxia Technology’s energy storage products in the future
2. High Cooperation Uncertainty
   : There is significant uncertainty in the realization of business cooperation opportunities
3. Overlapping Credit Risks
   : Business risks and credit risks overlap with each other, amplifying potential losses

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• Asset-Light Operation
  : Guoxia Technology does not build its own factories, manufacture battery cells, or bear project capital, focusing instead on AI system integration and operation services, which reduces heavy-asset risks
• Capital Synergy
  : Received resource synergy support through the industrial fund established by Corun New Energy, CALB Group, and Kaibo Capital (the fund size was expanded from RMB 402 million to RMB 1.402 billion)
• Market Demand
  : The installed capacity of the energy storage industry continues to grow; in the first three quarters of 2025, the national new energy storage installed capacity reached 32.8GW, surging 178% year-on-year [3]

Financial Indicators	2022	2023	2024	H1 2025
Gross Profit Margin	25.1%	26.7%	15.1%	12.5%
Net Profit Margin	17.1%	9.0%	4.8%	0.8%

Gross profit margin has halved from 25.1% to 12.5%, and net profit margin has plummeted from 17.1% to less than 1%, putting continuous pressure on profitability [1].

• Net Operating Cash Flow: RMB -30.32 million, RMB -72.91 million, RMB -51.9 million, and RMB -205 million for 2022 to H1 2025 respectively [2]
• Cash and Cash Equivalents: Only RMB 46.7 million as of June 30, 2025
• Short-Term Borrowings: As high as RMB 331 million, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio as low as 0.07, creating enormous debt repayment pressure

• Trade receivables and notes receivable surged from RMB 42 million in 2022 to RMB 952 million in H1 2025
• Accounts receivable turnover days extended from 56.2 days to 198 days
• Over 64% of the current period’s revenue in H1 2025 has not been collected [1]

• Valuation skyrocketed from RMB 20 million in 2019 to RMB 6 billion in 2025, representing a 300-fold increase
• The IPO trailing price-to-earnings ratio reaches 139 times, far exceeding the reasonable industry level [1]

The revenue share of the top five customers remains high (reaching 77.7% in H1 2025), and the company has weak bargaining power, forcing it to continuously extend customer credit terms [1].

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Based on the following core judgments:

Assessment Dimension	Risk Rating	Explanation
Profitability	🔴 Extreme Risk	Gross profit margin and net profit margin continue to decline; a net profit margin of 0.8% leaves no profit margin
Cash Flow	🔴 Extreme Risk	Cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 0.07, with continuous net outflows of operating cash flow
Loan Business Risk	🔴 Extreme Risk	Under the non-binding loan model, loan recovery risks overlap with business risks
Valuation Rationality	🔴 Extreme Risk	The 139x trailing PE ratio has a significant bubble
Market Competition	🔴 Extreme Risk	The average winning bid price for energy storage dropped from RMB 1.6/Wh in 2022 to RMB 0.65/Wh in 2025

1. The “Non-Binding Loan” model is essentially a product of vicious industry competition
   : Evolving from “price wars” to “credit wars” and then to “capital wars”, it reflects the typical form of abnormal expansion in the energy storage industry
2. Front-end capital arrangement is not business support, but a passive choice under competitive pressure
   : Providing non-binding loans to potential customers while facing severe cash flow tension has significantly amplified the company’s financial risks
3. The business model has fundamental flaws
   : It cannot guarantee loan recovery (no purchase constraints) nor secure stable business revenue through loans (high cooperation uncertainty); the overlap of dual risks makes this model unsustainable
4. The company’s overall financial situation does not support the expansion of this model
   : Indicators such as a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 0.07, accounts receivable turnover days of 198, and a net profit margin of 0.8% show that the company is in a financially fragile state, and any bad debt loss will have a major impact on the company

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Guoxia Technology’s business model faces multiple risks, including but not limited to:

• Continuous industry price wars leading to further deterioration of profitability
• Failure to collect accounts receivable leading to significant impairment losses
• Chain reactions triggered by loan customer defaults
• Capital market risks caused by valuation corrections

It is recommended that investors pay close attention to the company’s subsequently disclosed financial data and regulatory inquiry responses, and carefully evaluate investment risks.

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[1] Sina Finance - “Guoxia Technology Launches Global Offering: HK$680 Million Financing Scale Requires 18 Underwriters” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/observe/2025-12-10/doc-inhaiiyz0390708.shtml)

[2] Sina Finance - “How Guoxia Technology is Competing in the Energy Storage Sector?” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-11/doc-inhfxzzm7516520.shtml)

[3] Eastmoney - “Kaibo System’s Energy Storage Company Plans to Go Public: Can Asset-Light Play Break the Dilemma of Low Prices?” (https://guba.eastmoney.com/news,uspdd,1633283060.html)