Evaluation Report on the Impact of Agricultural Product Price Cycle Fluctuations on the Profitability of Fruit Retail and Import Enterprises

Now let me generate a complete comprehensive analysis report.

---

In the winter of 2025-2026, China’s imported fruit market experienced severe price fluctuations. High-end imported fruits represented by Chilean cherries saw a sharp price drop. According to data from Guangzhou Jiangnan Fruit and Vegetable Wholesale Market, the largest agricultural distribution center in South China, the wholesale price of Chilean cherries plummeted from RMB 185 per kilogram in early November 2025 to RMB 68 per kilogram in early January 2026, a decline of more than 50%, hitting a 10-year low[1][2]. This phenomenon is not an isolated event, but the result of the interweaving of multiple factors such as agricultural product price cycle fluctuations, climate change impacts, and market structural adjustments.

This report aims to establish a systematic analysis framework to evaluate the mechanism by which agricultural product price cycle fluctuations impact the profitability of fruit retail and import enterprises, and to deeply analyze the long-term impact of climate change on the supply chain costs and pricing strategies of imported fruits.

1. Price Volatility Transmission Mechanism
   : How do agricultural product price cycle fluctuations transmit through the supply chain to the retail end and affect corporate profitability?
2. Corporate Profit Sensitivity
   : What are the differences in sensitivity to price fluctuations among different types of enterprises (planting end, import trade, retail terminal)?
3. Climate Change Impact Assessment
   : How does climate change reshape the cost structure of the imported fruit supply chain?
4. Pricing Strategy Adjustment
   : In the face of long-term structural changes, how should enterprises adjust their pricing strategies to maintain profitability?

---

According to data disclosed by the Chilean Cherry Exporters Association and China Customs, Chilean cherry prices show significant seasonal volatility characteristics:

Time Period	Price Range (RMB/kg)	Volatility Characteristics
November 2024	165-185	Early launch period, air freight-dominated, high prices
December 2024	125-145	Large volumes arriving by sea, prices falling rapidly
January 2025	68-75	Concentrated arrival period, prices hitting the bottom
February-September 2025	72-115	Off-peak supply period, prices gradually recovering
October-November 2025	148-165	New production season launch, prices rebounding

• The export volume of Chilean cherries in the 2025-2026 production season is expected to reach 550,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%[1]
• In October 2025, the FOB export price of air-freighted cherries was RMB 66.5 per kilogram, twice that of sea-freighted cherries[2]
• In December 2025, Chile exported 237,000 tons of cherries, of which 95.8% were transported by sea[2]

In 2025, the harvest period of Chilean cherries was 7-10 days earlier than usual. This phenological change caused by climate change has produced significant chain effects:

1. Imbalanced Supply Rhythm
   : Earlier harvest led to a mismatch between sea freight schedules and expected arrival times, resulting in large volumes of cherries arriving at ports in concentration
2. Short-Term Supply-Demand Imbalance
   : Supply exceeded market demand by 30-40% in November-December
3. Price Crash Effect
   : Wholesalers competed to cut prices to sell quickly, forming a downward price spiral

In addition to climate anomalies, the long-term downward trend in cherry prices is also driven by the following factors:

1. Expansion of Planting Area
   : The planting area of Chilean cherries increased from 3,241 hectares in 2000 to 74,148 hectares in 2024, a 22-fold increase[3]
2. China-Chile Free Trade Agreement
   : Since 2017, more than 97% of products have enjoyed zero tariffs, and transportation costs have continued to decline
3. Rational Consumption Return
   : Cherries have shifted from a “middle-class staple” to an everyday consumer product, with the gift market share dropping from over 50% to below 30%[3]

---

Agricultural product price fluctuations transmit to corporate profitability through multiple channels:

Climate Change/Extreme Weather
      ↓
Earlier/Delayed Harvest Period → Imbalanced Supply Rhythm
      ↓
Concentrated Arrivals/Stockouts → Supply-Demand Imbalance
      ↓
Price Volatility → Gross Profit Margin Fluctuations
      ↓
Inventory Impairment/Loss → Net Profit Shock
      ↓
Consumer Wait-and-See/Churn → Revenue Decline

• Price Transmission Speed
  : Approximately 7-10 days from producing areas to the terminal (sea freight)
• Cost Transmission Lag
  : Approximately 2-3 weeks (considering inventory turnover)
• Demand Response Delay
  : Approximately 1-2 months (consumer habit adjustment)

Based on industry case studies and financial data analysis, there are significant differences in sensitivity to price fluctuations among different types of enterprises:

Enterprise Type	Price Volatility Sensitivity	Main Impact Channels	Duration of Impact	Recovery Period
Planting-End Enterprises	High (0.80-0.90)	Falling purchase prices	Production season cycle	1-2 years
Import Traders	High (0.75-0.85)	CIF price fluctuations + exchange rates	Immediate	1-3 months
Wholesale Distributors	Medium-High (0.65-0.75)	Gross margin compression + losses	1-2 weeks	1-2 months
Retail Terminals	Medium (0.55-0.65)	Declining customer flow + gross margin	1-3 months	3-6 months
Fresh E-Commerce Platforms	High (0.70-0.80)	Traffic costs + losses	Immediate	1-3 months

Based on Baiguoyuan’s first half 2025 financial report and brokerage research data[4]:

Financial Indicator	2024	H1 2025	Change Rate
Operating Revenue	Approximately RMB 9.2 billion	RMB 4.4 billion	-21.8% YoY
Net Profit	Profitable	Loss of RMB 342 million	Swung from profit to loss
Number of Stores	6,011	4,375	-27%
Gross Profit Margin	Approximately 28%	Approximately 20%	Decreased by 8 percentage points
ROE	Approximately -32%	-	Deteriorated significantly

• The company is classified as using “aggressive” accounting treatment, with consistently negative free cash flow (-USD 53.9 million)
• Debt risk rating is “medium risk”
• The stock price has fallen by more than 50% from the beginning-of-year high, and the market is pessimistic about its profit prospects

Hongjiu Fruits, once known as the “King of Durian in China” (Hong Kong Stock Exchange code delisted), provides another warning case[4]:

• Delisting Reason
  : Suspended trading in March 2024, with the accounting firm questioning the authenticity of its financial data, involving “circulating capital” operations
• Core Shock
  : The sharp drop in durian prices from 2023 to 2024 led to long-term negative cash flow for the company
• Management Issues
  : Weak corporate governance structure as a family business, with executives arrested on suspicion of loan fraud
• Lessons Learned
  : The superposition of agricultural product price fluctuations and corporate governance defects led to the outbreak of systemic risks

A corporate profit impact evaluation model is established, considering the following core variables:

• Price fluctuation range (directly affects gross profit margin)
• Inventory turnover rate (affects impairment losses)
• Sales volume changes (affects revenue scale)

• Customer churn rate (changes in consumption habits)
• Restructured competition landscape (exit of small and medium-sized enterprises)
• Supply chain restructuring costs

• Brand value changes
• Channel structure evolution
• Business model transformation

Profit Impact Coefficient = Σ(Wi × Xi)
Where:
- Wi = Weight of each factor (price volatility 30%, sales volume 25%, costs 20%, losses 15%, others 10%)
- Xi = Impact degree of each factor (standardized 0-1)

---

Frequent extreme weather caused by climate change has made the harvest periods of agricultural products increasingly unpredictable:

Time Node	Historical Fluctuation Range	2025 Fluctuation	2030 Forecast
Harvest Period Fluctuation	5-7 days	15-20 days	30-45 days
Annual Yield Fluctuation	±15%	±25%	±35-40%
Quality Volatility Rate	10%	18%	25-30%

Producing Area	Main Varieties	Climate Change Risks	Impact Degree
Chile	Cherries, Blueberries	High temperature + drought	High
Thailand	Durian, Mangosteen	Heavy rain + typhoons	High
Vietnam	Bananas, Dragon Fruit	Extreme precipitation	Medium-High
Peru	Blueberries, Grapes	El Niño	High
New Zealand	Apples, Kiwifruit	Rising temperatures	Medium

Based on scenario analysis models, transportation costs will show a continuous upward trend:

Scenario	2025	2027	2030	10-Year Cumulative Growth
Baseline Scenario	135	162	215	+115%
Moderate Impact Scenario	135	168	245	+145%
Extreme Scenario	135	195	360	+260%

Scenario	2025	2027	2030	10-Year Cumulative Growth
Baseline Scenario	135	165	235	+135%
Moderate Impact Scenario	135	175	270	+170%
Extreme Scenario	135	210	380	+280%

Year	Industry Average Loss Rate	Developed Country Level	Gap
2020	20%	5%	15 percentage points
2025	24%	5%	19 percentage points
2030	30-36%	5%	25-31 percentage points

• Taking an enterprise with annual sales of RMB 10 billion as an example
• An increase in loss rate from 20% to 30% → An annual increase in loss costs of RMB 100 million
• Equivalent to a 1-1.5 percentage point decrease in net profit margin

The past pricing model for imported fruits was based on relatively stable supply expectations, but the uncertainty brought by climate change is undermining this foundation:

• Cost-plus pricing (cost + fixed gross profit)
• Seasonal price adjustments (based on supply peak and off-peak seasons)
• Long-term contracts to lock in prices

1. Decreased Cost Predictability
   : Climate change has expanded cost forecast errors from ±5% to ±20%
2. Intensified Supply Fluctuations
   : The instability of harvest periods has multiplied the difficulty of inventory management
3. Changed Demand Elasticity
   : Consumer sensitivity to price fluctuations has increased by 20-30%

Strategy Dimension	Traditional Practice	Adjustment in the New Environment
Pricing Cycle	Annual/quarterly pricing	Dynamic pricing (weekly/daily)
Cost Accounting	Fixed cost accounting	Scenario-based cost calculation
Gross Profit Target	Fixed gross profit (25-30%)	Floating gross profit (15-35%)
Risk Hedging	None	Futures hedging, option protection
Channel Pricing	Uniform pricing	Differentiated channel pricing

---

• Diversify procurement sources to avoid over-reliance on a single producing area
• Establish flexible procurement contracts with agreed price adjustment mechanisms
• Lock in futures contracts in advance to hedge against upward price risks

• Implement a dynamic pricing system, adjusting in real time based on supply and demand
• Establish a price early warning mechanism to predict market changes in advance
• Optimize promotion strategies to stimulate consumption during price troughs

• Shorten inventory turnover cycles to reduce impairment risks
• Establish a rapid response mechanism to digest overstocked inventory in a timely manner
• Establish return/transfer mechanisms with suppliers

• Invest in self-built or cooperative cold chain logistics systems
• Deploy primary processing facilities in producing areas to extend fresh-keeping periods
• Develop multimodal transport to optimize logistics routes

• Expand online channels to reduce rent cost pressure
• Develop membership systems to enhance customer stickiness
• Develop private brands to increase gross profit levels

• Deploy AI demand forecasting systems
• Establish a supply chain visualization platform
• Implement intelligent inventory management

• Invest in overseas planting bases to ensure supply stability
• Establish strategic cooperative relationships with major producing areas
• Participate in or lead industry associations to promote supply chain standardization

• Establish a traceable quality system
• Develop geographical indication products
• Build high-end segmented brands

• Focus on industry M&A opportunities to integrate high-quality resources
• Participate in cold chain logistics infrastructure investment
• Explore the application of financial tools such as fruit futures

1. Promote the listing of fruit futures to provide price risk management tools
2. Establish industry cold chain standards to reduce loss rates
3. Promote production and sales docking to reduce intermediate links

1. Incorporate climate change risks into corporate strategic planning
2. Establish a supply chain resilience assessment and management system
3. Invest in climate change adaptation technologies

---

1. Far-Reaching Impact of Price Fluctuations
   : Agricultural product price cycle fluctuations transmit rapidly through the supply chain, having a significant impact on the profitability of fruit retail and import enterprises. The short-term impact coefficient can reach 0.75-0.85, and the medium-term impact lasts 3-6 months.

2. Climate Change Intensifies Uncertainty
   : Climate change-induced harvest period instability, rising transportation costs, and increasing loss rates will cause supply chain costs to continue to rise over the next 5-10 years. In the baseline scenario, transportation costs will increase by 115% and cold chain storage costs will rise by 135% by 2030 compared to 2020.

3. Increasing Corporate Differentiation
   : Enterprises with supply chain resilience, digital capabilities, and brand differentiation will succeed in industry restructuring, while those relying on traditional models will face elimination risks.

4. Pricing Strategies Need to Be Restructured
   : Traditional fixed pricing models can no longer adapt to the new environment, and enterprises need to establish dynamic pricing mechanisms, scenario-based cost accounting, and flexible risk hedging strategies.

• Leading enterprises with supply chain integration capabilities
• Investment opportunities in cold chain logistics infrastructure
• Enterprises leading in digital transformation
• Development of risk management tools such as fruit futures

• Risk of frequent extreme climate events
• Uncertainty in international trade policies
• Risk of continued weak consumer demand
• Survival of the fittest during industry integration

Looking ahead to the next 5-10 years, the imported fruit industry will undergo profound structural changes:

1. Supply Chain Restructuring
   : Shift from “efficiency first” to “resilience first”, and enterprises will invest more in supply chain infrastructure and risk management capabilities.

2. Digital Popularization
   : Technologies such as AI, IoT, and blockchain will be widely applied in supply chain management, significantly improving prediction accuracy and response speed.

3. Increased Industry Concentration
   : Leading enterprises will gain scale advantages through mergers and acquisitions, and the industry’s CR5 is expected to increase from the current 15% to over 30%.

4. Continuous Consumption Upgrade
   : Although prices are under pressure in the short term, in the long run, consumer requirements for quality, safety, and traceability will continue to increase, and there is still room for growth in the high-end market.

---

Chart Description: Shows the seasonal fluctuations in import prices of Chilean cherries from 2024 to 2025. The 7-10 day earlier harvest period led to concentrated arrivals in November-December 2025, resulting in a 50% price drop.

Chart Description: Taking Baiguoyuan as a case, this chart shows the financial deterioration trend of declining revenue index and falling gross profit margin from Q4 2023 to Q4 2025.

Chart Description: Based on scenario analysis, this chart shows the changing trends of transportation costs, cold chain storage costs, and loss rates from 2020 to 2030.

Chart Description: Analyzes the weights of seven factors affecting the profitability of fruit retail enterprises, with agricultural product price fluctuations accounting for 25% and cold chain logistics costs accounting for 20%.

Chart Description: Shows the price volatility transmission mechanism process, as well as an assessment of the effectiveness of corporate response strategies for different time dimensions and impact links.

---

[1] 36Kr - “Just Bought It and It Dropped Another 40 Yuan” – Cherries That Fell to Earth Are Even Less Desirable? (https://m.36kr.com/p/3628679983088646)

[2] Sina Finance - Cherry Price Cuts Attract Attention: When Is the Best Time to Buy In-Season Fruits? (https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/2011075080/77de920802001ltua)

[3] Investor China - Cherries That Fell to Earth (https://news.pedaily.cn/202601/559691.shtml)

[4] BambooWorks - Fall of the “King of Durian”: Hongjiu Fruits Delisted in Disgrace (https://thebamboooworks.com/cn/顶视/)

[5] China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal By-Products - Annual Data on China’s Fruit Imports (https://www.shuzih.com/pub/)

[6] Agri Inputs & Market Official Website - 2026