In-Depth Analysis of the Investment Value of Suplay's Hong Kong IPO

Now I will conduct an in-depth investment analysis based on the collected data.

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Founded in 2019, Suplay is a company focusing on IP collectibles and consumer products, with card brand “Kakawow”, trendy toy brand “Hey Fen’er” and anime merchandise brand “Letao Gu” in its portfolio. The company received a $8 million Series A+ investment from miHoYo in 2021. miHoYo currently holds a 11.86% stake, making it the largest external shareholder[1][2].

• High-end Collectible Card Market
  : The issue price per card exceeds RMB 10, with a retail price of RMB 59.9-89.9 per pack
• Adult Consumer Group
  : Over 99% of consumers are adults aged 18 and above
• Breakthrough in Female Market
  : Female consumers account for 52.7%, breaking the “male-dominated” pattern of the traditional card market[3]

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Indicator	2023	2024	First Three Quarters of 2025
Operating Revenue	RMB 146 million	RMB 281 million (+92.5%)	RMB 283 million
Profit Attributable to Shareholders	RMB 2.949 million	RMB 49.115 million	RMB 37.074 million
Adjusted Net Profit	RMB 15.974 million	RMB 64.815 million (+305%)	RMB 86.423 million
Gross Margin	41.7%	45.8%	54.5%[1][4]

1. Rapid Expansion of Card Business
   : Sales volume of collectible cards grew from 1.56 million units in 2023 to 4.58 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, with average revenue per unit sold increasing from RMB 31 to RMB 43[5]
2. Business Structure Optimization
   : The proportion of revenue from collectibles increased from 32.9% in 2023 to 70% in the first three quarters of 2025, with gross margin rising from 57.9% to 69.5%[5]

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Indicator	Suplay	Pop Mart (2024)
Revenue Scale	RMB 281 million	RMB 13 billion
Revenue Growth Rate	92.5%	106.9%
Net Profit	RMB 49.11 million	RMB 3.3 billion
Gross Margin	45.8%	67%
Net Profit Margin	17.5%	25%
Revenue Share from Self-Owned IPs	14.4%	77%
Market Capitalization (Valuation)	~USD 100 million (Jul 2025)	HK$148.2 billion[1][6][7]

1. Track Dividend
   : The global collectible card market reached a scale of USD 12 billion in 2024, and is expected to hit USD 25.7 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 16.5%; the Chinese market has a CAGR of 21.4%[3][8]

2. Differentiated Positioning
   :
   • Pop Mart focuses on
     self-owned IP trendy toys
     , while Suplay focuses on
     licensed IP collectible cards
   • Both target the “emotional consumption” track, but there are differences in product forms and consumer groups

3. Ecosystem Synergy with miHoYo
   :
   • Obtained licenses for top IPs including Genshin Impact, Honkai: Star Rail, and Zenless Zone Zero
   • GMV of “Ruan Mei’s Creations” mini figures exceeded RMB 50 million in 2024[2]

1. Extreme Reliance on IPs
   :
   • The proportion of revenue from licensed IPs surged from 54.2% (2023) to 95% (first three quarters of 2025)
   • The proportion of revenue from self-owned IPs plummeted from 45.8% to 4.1%
   • The top five licensed IPs contribute 77.7% of revenue, with the largest single IP accounting for 32.3%[4][5]
   • Key Risk
     : According to the prospectus, the license agreement for the largest licensed IP has expired and is under renewal negotiations, with significant uncertainty[3][4]

2. Huge Scale Gap
   :
   • Suplay’s revenue is only 2.2% of Pop Mart’s, with an approximate 46-fold gap
   • Pop Mart has established an integrated platform covering the entire industry chain, while Suplay is still in the early stage[7]

3. Gap in IP Operation Capabilities
   :
   • Pop Mart has 10 IPs generating over RMB 100 million in revenue each, with self-owned IPs accounting for 77% of revenue
   • Suplay only has 3 self-owned IPs (Rabbit KIKI, Uncle OHO, Water Wave Egg), contributing only 4.1% of revenue[5][7]

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Game Product	Mobile Revenue	User Scale	Life Cycle Stage
Genshin Impact	Over RMB 64 billion	Over 218 million downloads	Operating for over 3 years, revenue decline phase
Honkai: Star Rail	Ranked 1st in 2024 Growth Chart	Top-tier product	Growth phase
Zenless Zone Zero	Ranked 6th in 2024 Revenue Chart	New product	Ramp-up phase[9][10]

1. Genshin Impact Enters Mid-Life Cycle
   :
   • Dropped out of the top 10 global mobile game revenue rankings for two consecutive months in summer 2024
   • Data from Niko Partners shows that player spending has decreased significantly compared to the previous three years[10]

2. Exclusivity Issue of IP Licensing
   :
   • IP licensors can grant the same IP rights to multiple companies simultaneously
   • Leading to market saturation and reduced product differentiation[4]

3. miHoYo’s Strategic Considerations
   :
   • For game companies, the life cycle of IPs is limited
   • Materializing IPs through Suplay can open up a second battlefield beyond games
   • This is a “materialization experiment of a virtual empire”[11]

1. Deeply Bound Relationship
   :
   • Wu Di, Vice President of miHoYo, serves as a non-executive director of Suplay
   • Holds a 11.86% stake, making it the largest external shareholder
   • Has licensed all its top-tier IPs to Suplay[2][11]

2. Verified Cooperation Results
   :
   • GMV of “Ruan Mei’s Creations” mini figures exceeded RMB 50 million
   • Expanding cooperation from trendy toys to the collectible card field[2][5]

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Risk Category	Risk Description	Risk Level
IP Renewal Risk	The contract for the largest licensed IP has expired, with uncertainty surrounding renewal	🔴High
Revenue Concentration	The top five IPs contribute 77.7% of revenue, with a single IP accounting for over 30%	🔴High
Weak Self-Owned IPs	Self-owned IPs contribute only 4.1% of revenue, lacking a core moat	🟠Medium-High
Regulatory Policies	Tighter regulations on blind boxes and blind cards may affect the industry	🟠Medium-High
Intensified Competition	Competition from peers such as Card Tour (RMB 10 billion revenue) and Hitcard	🟡Medium
Reliance on miHoYo	High revenue dependence on IPs from a single game manufacturer	🔴High

• Latest Valuation
  : Post-investment valuation of approximately USD 100 million in July 2025[4]
• Benchmark Valuation
  : Pop Mart’s current market capitalization is approximately HK$148.2 billion, with a 2024 static P/E ratio of about 45x
• Valuation Rationality
  : If valued according to Pop Mart’s model, Suplay needs to build a strong self-owned IP system and large-scale profitability, and there is significant uncertainty in its current valuation

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1. Huge Gap in IP Moat
   : 77% of Pop Mart’s revenue comes from self-owned IPs, while 95% of Suplay’s revenue relies on licensed IPs, with self-owned IPs contributing only 4.1%
2. No Scale Effect Formed
   : Pop Mart has established over 530 offline stores and a complete membership system, while Suplay mainly relies on distribution channels (accounting for 74%) and has no offline flagship stores of its own
3. Brand Premium Capability
   : Pop Mart has developed globally popular IPs such as “LABUBU”, while Suplay is still in the early stage of brand building

1. Whether it can successfully renew the expired contract for the largest licensed IP
2. The effectiveness of self-owned IP incubation and the improvement of revenue contribution
3. The depth and stability of IP cooperation with miHoYo
4. The overall expansion speed of the collectible card market

: miHoYo IPs will remain Suplay’s core revenue source, and the deeply bound relationship between the two parties can ensure the continuity of cooperation. miHoYo needs Suplay as an important channel for IP materialization.

: There are the following uncertainties:

• Genshin Impact enters the mid-life cycle, and its popularity may continue to decline
• miHoYo may build its own or support other IP derivative channels
• There are variables in IP license renewal terms and exclusivity arrangements

: Suplay is a collectible card company in a high-growth phase, with track dividends and ecosystem synergy advantages with miHoYo. However, the . The IP cooperation with miHoYo is sustainable in the short term, but its long-term value depends on the IP life cycle and changes in the strategic relationship between the two parties. It is recommended that investors focus on the progress of IP renewals and the effectiveness of self-owned IP incubation.

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[1] 36Kr - “About 99.5% of consumers are adults; this type of card sold RMB 200 million in 9 months” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3631743092474888)

[2] The Paper - “miHoYo has invested in two IPO candidates” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32318413)

[3] Guancha.cn - “With annual revenue of RMB 300 million, Suplay competes with a RMB 10 billion giant for the title of ‘first card stock’” (https://user.guancha.cn/main/content?id=1578794&s=fwzlwzbt)

[4] 21st Century Business Herald - “Billed as a super player in adult cards, it sprinted for Hong Kong IPO; miHoYo holds 11.86% stake” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260106/herald/1118d13b3a3183687305947858a82c17.html)

[5] Winshang - “The card company invested by miHoYo is going public” (https://m.winshang.com/news738171.html)

[6] School of Management, Zhejiang University - “Pop Mart Financial Report Insight: Decode the emotional economy behind trendy toys in one article” (http://www.som.zju.edu.cn/2025/0819/c63464a3075091/page.htm)

[7] Dongfang Fortune Securities - “Pop Mart (09992.HK): Leader in the trendy toy industry, driven by globalization and business expansion” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202502281643615393_1.pdf)

[8] Southern Metropolis Daily - “From small paper cards to a trillion-yuan journey, China’s card market sees a dual boom of capital and industry” (https://news.southcn.com/node_812903b83a/2d96bff471.shtml)

[9] Baijing.cn - “Genshin Impact mobile global revenue exceeds RMB 64 billion” (https://www.baijing.cn/article/50407)

[10] Securities Times - “miHoYo doesn’t need players” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1116880.html)

[11] Sina Finance - “Gold on paper, going to IPO” (https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/1999913061/7734406500101beu2)