Evaluation of the Optimization Effect of 2026 Consumer Goods Trade-In Policy and Analysis of Beneficiary Sectors

Based on the latest policy documents and industry data, I will systematically analyze the impact of the 2026 consumer goods trade-in policy optimization on the durable consumer goods industry.

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The 2026 “Two New” policy (large-scale equipment update and consumer goods trade-in) maintains the overall framework stability while featuring the distinct characteristic of

. According to the “Notice on Implementing the Large-Scale Equipment Update and Consumer Goods Trade-In Policy for 2026” [1] jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, the policy optimization is mainly reflected in three dimensions:

Optimization Dimension	Specific Adjustments
Support Scope	Home appliances: narrowed from 12 categories to 6; added smart glasses and smart home products; automobiles continue to implement scrap update and replacement update
Subsidy Standards	Home appliances: 15% subsidy for Grade 1 energy efficiency products, with a single item cap of RMB 1,500; automobiles: subsidized based on vehicle price percentage, maximum RMB 20,000 for new energy vehicles
Implementation Mechanism	Unified national subsidy standards; optimized fund allocation and review procedures; crack down on fraudulent subsidy claims

Category	2025 Policy	2026 Policy Adjustments
Home Appliances	12 product categories, 12%-20% subsidy	Focus on 6 categories (refrigerators, washing machines, TVs, air conditioners, computers, water heaters), limited to Grade 1 energy efficiency, 15% subsidy with a cap of RMB 1,500
Automobiles	Fixed-amount subsidy	Subsidized based on vehicle price percentage: 12% for new energy vehicle scrap update (capped at RMB 20,000), 8% for replacement update (capped at RMB 15,000)
Digital Products	Mobile phones, tablets, smart watches	Added smart glasses, totaling 4 product categories, 15% subsidy with a cap of RMB 500

This adjustment reflects the policy orientation of

, avoiding diminishing marginal effects caused by overly dispersed subsidies [2].

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Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that the trade-in policy from 2024 to 2025 achieved significant results [3]:

• Automobile Trade-In
  : Cumulative 18.3 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for nearly 60%
• Home Appliance Trade-In
  : Cumulative 192 million units, with Grade 1 energy efficiency (water efficiency) products accounting for over 90%
• New Digital Product Purchases
  : Over 91 million units, with mid-to-high-end models accounting for 72.5% of sales
• Driven Sales Volume
  : RMB 3.92 trillion, benefiting 494 million consumer trips
• Contribution to Retail Sales
  : From January to November 2025, trade-in drove total retail sales growth by over 1 percentage point

Data from Suning.com shows that on the first day of the 2026 policy implementation (January 1), store foot traffic nationwide increased by 110% month-on-month, and single-day sales increased by 175% compared to the daily average of the previous month [4]. Specific categories saw significant growth:

• Refrigerators: 240% growth
• Washing machines: 296% growth
• Air conditioners: 265% growth
• TVs: 194% growth
• Water heaters: 140% growth

: The 2026 home appliance trade-in is expected to drive home appliance retail sales to maintain a high level of over RMB 1 trillion, but the growth rate may slow down compared to 2025. The main reasons include:

1. Narrowed policy subsidy scope, with demand for some categories released in advance
2. Consumers have a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for subsequent policy reinforcements
3. Macroeconomic recovery pace affects consumer confidence

In 2025, over 11.5 million automobiles were traded in, driving new car sales of over RMB 1.6 trillion [5]. Impact assessment after the 2026 policy adjustment:

Subsidy Scenario	New Energy Vehicles	Fuel Vehicles
Scrap Update	12% of vehicle price (max RMB 20,000)	10% of vehicle price (max RMB 15,000)
Replacement Update	8% of vehicle price (max RMB 15,000)	6% of vehicle price (max RMB 13,000)

: After implementing the vehicle price percentage-based subsidy, models in the 150,000-200,000 yuan price range receive the relatively highest subsidy intensity [6]. This will:

1. Further consolidate the market position of the 150,000-200,000 yuan new energy vehicle “golden price range”
2. Promote the continuous increase of new energy vehicle penetration rate, which is expected to exceed 60% in 2026
3. Drive the improvement of the sales structure of mid-to-high-end models

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Benefit Level	Segmented Category	Logical Analysis
★★★★★	Grade 1 Energy Efficiency Refrigerators/Washing Machines	Subsidy is limited to Grade 1 energy efficiency products; high-efficiency products already account for over 90%, highlighting the technological advantages of leading enterprises
★★★★☆	Smart Air Conditioners	Inverter energy-saving technology + intelligent control align with policy orientation, with 15% subsidy + RMB 1,500 cap providing obvious incentives
★★★☆☆	Water Heaters	Both gas and electric water heaters are included in the subsidy scope, but replacement demand is relatively rigid
★★☆☆☆	TVs/Computers	Longer replacement cycle, relatively limited demand elasticity

The Matthew effect in the home appliance industry will be further strengthened, and enterprises with the following characteristics will benefit significantly:

1. Improved Brand Matrix
   : Enterprises covering multiple categories and brands (e.g., Haier, Midea)
2. Leading Energy Efficiency Technology
   : Enterprises with a high proportion of Grade 1 energy efficiency products
3. Obvious Channel Advantages
   : Retail channels with well-established offline store layouts (e.g., Suning.com)

Segmented Sector	Benefit Logic	Representative Enterprises
150,000-200,000 Yuan New Energy Vehicles	Range with maximum subsidy intensity, strong demand	BYD, Leapmotor, XPeng
PHEV/Extended-Range Models	Benefit from new energy subsidy policy inclinations	Li Auto, BYD, Changan
Fuel Vehicles (Under 150,000 Yuan)	10% subsidy + RMB 15,000 cap remains attractive	Joint venture brands, entry-level models of independent brands

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in the first 10 months of 2025, sales of new energy vehicles in the 150,000-200,000 yuan range reached 2.707 million units, second only to the above-250,000 yuan price segment [7]. Under the 2026 policy framework, this price range will benefit from:

1. Policy Dividends
   : Obtain the highest subsidy percentage
2. Technology Downward Migration
   : High-end configurations such as 400kW dual motors, lidar, and Snapdragon 8295 chips are being introduced to this segment
3. Broad Demand
   : Large market base with clear growth space

The inclusion of smart glasses in the national subsidy scope for the first time is a milestone. According to forecasts from Luotu Technology, the global smart glasses market shipment volume will exceed 23.687 million units in 2026, and the Chinese market shipment volume is expected to exceed 4.915 million units [8].

:

• Reduces consumer threshold and accelerates market education
• Drives industrial chain maturity and upgrading
• Expected subsidy of RMB 200-300 per unit, stimulating short-term sales volume

: Rokid, Xiaomi, RayNeo, Quark, StarEra Meizu, Li Auto Livis, etc.

The 2025 subsidy policy is continued, with the subsidy intensity maintained at 15% and a cap of RMB 500. According to e-commerce platform data, after the national subsidy, smart watches from brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi offer discounts of RMB 100-300 [9].

The policy gives local governments autonomy and encourages key support for smart home and age-friendly products. This segmented sector has long-term growth potential:

• Release of demand for aging-friendly transformation
• Increased penetration rate of whole-house intelligence
• Equipment updates in elderly care institutions are included in the support scope

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The Ministry of Commerce explicitly requires ensuring that rural residents can access the subsidy policy, and guarantees participation through the following methods:

1. Increase offline business entities in rural areas
2. Guide online channels to tilt towards rural areas
3. Encourage large supermarkets and brand stores to expand their service networks to rural areas

Nielsen IQ data shows that county-level home appliance sales increased by 12% year-on-year, with their contribution importance increasing by 38% [10]. Sinking markets will become an important incremental source for the 2026 policy implementation.

The policy implementation has driven the prosperity of offline physical commerce:

• Home appliance trade-in offline stores gather in business districts, with consumer spending of merchants within a 1-kilometer radius increasing by over 30%
• Consumers choose to shop in stores for experiences, leading to cross-scenario consumption such as leisure, entertainment, and catering
• Content e-commerce sales in the tech durable consumer goods sector grew by up to 52%, accelerating online-offline integration [11]

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Indicator	Forecast
Home Appliance Trade-In Sales Volume	Expected to maintain a trillion-yuan scale, with growth rate slowing to single digits
Automobile Trade-In Volume	Expected to reach 10-11 million units, focusing on structural optimization
Digital Smart Products	New categories such as smart glasses will see volume growth, forming incremental contributions

1. Policy Normalization
   : Trade-in is expected to shift from a phased stimulus to a normalized policy tool
2. Industrial Upgrading
   : Continuously promote the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and green smart home appliances
3. Circular Economy Development
   : Improve the scrap recycling system and enhance resource reuse efficiency
4. Consumption Structure Upgrading
   : Increase the proportion of mid-to-high-end products and improve consumption quality

1. Diminishing Marginal Policy Effect
   : After two consecutive years of high growth, the growth rate may slow down in 2026
2. Consumption Front-Loading Effect
   : Part of the consumer demand has been released in advance in 2025
3. Macroeconomic Fluctuations
   : The degree of consumer confidence recovery affects policy effects

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Industry	Segmented Sector	Focus Logic
Home Appliances	Grade 1 Energy Efficiency White Goods	Leading technology, channel advantages, brand matrix
Automobiles	150,000-200,000 Yuan New Energy Vehicles	Price range benefiting the most from policies, downward migration of technological configurations
Smart Digital	Smart Glasses/Smart Wearables	Emergence of new sectors with strong policy support
Channels	Leading Offline Retailers	Policy implementation carriers, with highlighted scenario consumption value

1. Seize Structural Opportunities
   : Focus on policy-inclined fields such as 150,000-200,000 yuan new energy vehicles and Grade 1 energy efficiency home appliances
2. Emphasize Leading Enterprise Effect
   : Under the trend of increasing industry concentration, prioritize leading enterprises
3. Layout New Sectors
   : New categories such as smart glasses and smart home are in the early growth stage, with long-term value
4. Focus on Overseas Expansion Logic
   : Against the background of diminishing domestic policy effects, overseas expansion capability has become an important growth driver for automobile and home appliance enterprises

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[1] National Development and Reform Commission. “Notice on Implementing the Large-Scale Equipment Update and Consumer Goods Trade-In Policy for 2026”. December 30, 2025. https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/jd/jd/202512/t20251230_1402853.html

[2] Ministry of Commerce. “Interpretation of the Notice on Improving Quality and Efficiency to Implement the 2026 Consumer Goods Trade-In Policy”. December 31, 2025. https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcjd/gnmy/art/2026/art_fc4588d9966e406b9821ef4dbd6e4725.html

[3] Xinhua News Agency. Trade-In from 2024 to 2025 Drives Consumer Goods Sales of RMB 3.92 Trillion. January 6, 2026. http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260106/b7fc5720f0c04b61b54bbd8e75724c8c/c.html

[4] Caifuhao. 2026 National Subsidy Launched, Home Appliance Market Gets a Strong Start. January 4, 2026. https://caifuhao2.eastmoney.com/news/20260104162643194325080

[5] 21st Century Business Herald. Details of 2026 National Subsidy Released! Automobile Trade-In Subsidy Based on Percentage, Maximum RMB 20,000. December 31, 2025. https://www.21jingji.com/article/20251231/herald/9393c7f040604765d22fa87a0b034b99.html

[6] Huxiu. Which Automobile Enterprises Will Excel in 2026? January 2026. https://news.pedaily.cn/202601/559466.shtml

[7] China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. New Energy Vehicle Market Data for the First 10 Months of 2025. November 2025.

[8] CNRS. Policy Precision Optimization, Smart Wearable Industry Accelerates to Form a Hundred-Billion-Growth Pole. January 7, 2026. http://m.cyol.com/gb/articles/2026-01/07/content_X5JneaTp2z.html

[9] Huxiu APP. Save Up to RMB 500 on Phones, Up to RMB 1,500 Subsidy on Home Appliances, AI Glasses Included for the First Time. January 5, 2026. https://www.huxiu.com/article/4823460.html

[10] Nielsen IQ. 2026 Annual Report on Four Major Consumer Sectors. January 2026. https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260106A005Q900

[11] CNFO. “National Subsidy” Updated! Smart Glasses Included. January 1, 2026. http://news.cnfol.com/zhengquanyaowen/20260101/31909649.shtml