In-Depth Analysis of Investment Prospects for Circular Economy and AI Intelligent Sorting Technology

Based on the data and market information I have collected, I now provide you with a systematic and comprehensive investment analysis.

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According to authoritative industry research data,

, showing strong growth momentum [1]. Meanwhile, China’s total renewable resource recycling volume exceeded the 400 million ton mark for the first time, reaching 401 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 6.55%, and the recycling value was approximately RMB 1.33 trillion [2]. This growth momentum is driven by the policy of the “Dual Carbon” goals and the successful implementation of the consumer goods trade-in policy.

From a global perspective,

, and it is expected to grow to USD 7.69 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.0% during the forecast period [3]. The rapid growth of this market reflects the global urgent demand for intelligent and resource-based waste treatment solutions.

The Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of the circular economy and has issued a series of supportive policies:

Policy Document	Core Objective
“14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development”	Reach RMB 5 trillion in output value of resource recycling industry by 2025
“Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Waste Recycling System”	Reach 450 million tons of renewable resource utilization by 2025
“Action Plan for Comprehensive Solid Waste Management”	Build a full-chain comprehensive solid waste management system
Waste Classification Policy	National domestic waste classification coverage rate exceeds 98%

The policy framework, from tax incentives, financial subsidies to industry access standards, has built a full-chain support system, creating a good institutional environment for the application and promotion of intelligent sorting equipment [1].

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AI intelligent sorting technology is going through a critical point from laboratory to large-scale application. According to industry data:

• Significant Cost-Effectiveness
  : The application of AI sorting systems reduces recycling costs by 40% and improves sorting accuracy to over 95% [1]
• Strong Recognition Capability
  : AI-driven recycling robots can accurately identify and classify
  over 2,000 types of waste
  [1]
• Wide Application Scenarios
  : Covers multiple categories such as waste steel, waste plastic, waste paper, waste electrical and electronic products, and end-of-life vehicles

Guangzhou Nine-Claw Intelligence, as a representative enterprise in the industry, integrates AI vision, hyperspectral, near-infrared and other technical routes through its multi-modal intelligent sorting technology, providing integrated hardware and software solutions, which represents the cutting-edge direction of industry technology development [4].

Technology Direction	Application Effect	Investment Value
AI Visual Recognition	Accurately classifies over 2,000 types of waste	High accuracy brings high recycling value
Hyperspectral Imaging	Material recognition accuracy reaches 98%	Improves sorting efficiency and purity
Near-Infrared Spectroscopy	Plastic sorting accuracy exceeds 95%	Value excavation of low-value recyclables
Robot Automation	Replaces manual labor, reduces operating costs	Significant scale economic effects

In the international market, Zenrobotics launched its fourth-generation waste sorting robot, Zenrobotics 4.0, in February 2024, with upgraded AI functions that significantly improve sorting efficiency [3]. Domestic enterprises such as Guangzhou Nine-Claw Intelligence are gradually narrowing the gap with international leading enterprises through independent technological innovation, and showing competitive advantages in localized services.

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From 2024 to 2025, investment and financing activities in the circular economy field are frequent:

:

• Henan Circular Economy Group
  : Completed a nearly RMB 1 billion acquisition of multiple electronic waste recycling enterprises under GEM
• Hebai Group
  : Cross-border entered the renewable resource field and established a RMB 20 million joint venture company
• Ingka Group
  : Acquired a stake in Shanghai Ruimo Environmental Protection, a Chinese plastic recycling enterprise

:

• Wankai New Materials
  and France’s Carbios jointly invested in a 50,000-ton waste bio-enzymatic depolymerization PET recycling project with a total investment of approximately RMB 922 million
• Yindu Lama Group
  completed a US$20 million strategic capital increase in Zhejiang Jianxin Jiren New Materials
• Leju
  completed its B++ round of financing, exclusively invested by Kunlun Capital
• Suxin Technology
  completed several million RMB in pre-A and pre-A+ round financing
• Yuantian Biology
  received strategic investment from Toyota Tsusho

Many local governments have established special industrial funds to support the development of circular economy and intelligent manufacturing:

Region	Fund Name	Scale	Investment Direction
Shenzhen	Artificial Intelligence and Embodied Robot Industry Fund	RMB 10 billion	AI, embodied robots
Shanghai	National and Local Co-constructed Humanoid Robot Innovation Center	RMB 10 billion	Humanoid robots
Jiangsu	Strategic Emerging Industry Parent Fund	RMB 50 billion	Strategic emerging industries
Guangzhou	Guangzhou Financial Assets Investment Co., Ltd. Equity Investment Fund	RMB 10 billion	Intelligent equipment and robots

:

• Founded in 2021, focusing on AI multi-modal intelligent sorting technology in the resource recycling field
• Completed tens of millions of RMB in Pre-A round financing, with investors being Baiyun Jinkong and Baiyun Jianke
• The founder once worked at Huawei, with nearly 10 years of experience in IoT and intelligent equipment R&D

:

1. Track Alignment
   : Aligns with the policy orientation of the “Dual Carbon” goals and waste classification policies
2. Technological Barriers
   : Multi-modal fusion technology forms differentiated competitive advantages
3. Market Rigid Demand
   : Intelligent sorting equipment has become a rigid configuration in the resource recycling field
4. Sustainable Growth
   : Market demand has long-term and structural characteristics

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According to industry calculation data:

Indicator	Traditional Manual Sorting	AI Intelligent Sorting	Improvement Range
Sorting Accuracy	70-80%	95%+	+15-25%
Labor Cost	High	Low	-60-70%
Processing Efficiency	Low	High	+3-5x
Operating Cost	High	Low	-40%

Taking intelligent circular packaging enterprises as an example, through the exploration of AI logistics unmanned solutions and the expansion of intelligent asset scale, enterprises show good scale economic effects and cost reduction trends [5].

Risk Type	Risk Description	Response Strategy
Technological Iteration Risk	Rapid evolution of AI technology	Sustained R&D investment to maintain technological leadership
Market Acceptance	Verification cycle of downstream customers	Build benchmark customers and replicate successful cases
Policy Dependence	Changes in subsidy policies	Improve self-profitability and reduce policy dependence
Intensified Competition	Cross-border entry of large enterprises	Differentiated positioning and deep cultivation of segmented markets

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Based on market data and development trends, it is recommended to focus on the following segmented areas:

:

1. Plastic Circular Sorting
   : Strong demand in the recycled plastic market, high technology maturity
2. Electronic Waste Dismantling and Sorting
   : Strong policy support, high recycling value
3. Construction Waste Resource Utilization
   : Large market scale, broad intelligent space

:

1. Low-Value Recyclable Sorting
   : The recovery rate of waste glass, waste textiles, etc. is less than 30%, with great room for improvement
2. New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Recycling
   : A key link in the closed-loop of the new energy industry chain

Evaluation Dimension	Key Indicators	Weight
Technological Barriers	Number of core patents, multi-modal technology capabilities	25%
Commercialization Capability	Number of customers, repurchase rate, average customer unit price	25%
Team Background	Founding team’s industry experience, R&D capabilities	20%
Growth Potential	Market space, track competitiveness	20%
Financial Status	Revenue growth rate, gross profit margin, cash flow	10%

:

1. Policy Dividend Period
   : 2025 is the closing year of the “14th Five-Year Plan”, and policy support will continue to increase
2. Technological Inflection Point
   : The maturity of AI multi-modal technology has reached the critical point of large-scale application, and the investment window has opened
3. Market Outbreak Period
   : The annual growth rate of renewable resource recycling volume exceeds 6%, and the intelligent penetration rate is still at a low level
4. Reasonable Valuation Period
   : Compared with other AI application fields, the valuation of intelligent sorting is relatively reasonable

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Trend	Specific Performance	Investment Implication
Intelligent Upgrade	AI-driven recycling robots identify over 2,000 types of waste	Technology-leading enterprises will obtain excess returns
High-Value Recycling	Shift from metal recycling to extraction of high-value materials such as rare earths	Open up a new market space of tens of billions of RMB
Digital Traceability	Blockchain technology ensures the compliance of resource sources	Reduces compliance costs, benefiting compliant enterprises
Modular Deployment	Flexible configuration solutions adapted to different scenarios	Reduces customer acquisition thresholds and accelerates penetration

:

1. Increased Market Concentration
   : Leading enterprises expand and strengthen through M&A and integration
2. Deepened Professional Division of Labor
   : Segmented development of sorting technology, operation services, and channel networks in all links
3. Accelerated International Layout
   : Leading enterprises such as China National Resources and Environment Group lay out markets in Southeast Asia and Europe
4. Cross-Border Integration and Innovation
   : Integration of AI, environmental protection, logistics and other fields gives birth to new business models

• Optimized Subsidy Policies
  : Shift from universal subsidies to precise support for technological R&D
• Improved Standard System
  : Gradual establishment of product standards, traceability standards, and industry access standards
• Continued Tax Incentives
  : The value-added tax immediate refund policy for comprehensive resource utilization is expected to continue and be optimized

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1. Broad Market Space
   : China’s circular economy market scale exceeds RMB 4.6 trillion, and the penetration rate of AI intelligent sorting technology is still in the early stage, with huge growth space
2. Continuous Policy Benefits
   : Policies such as the “Dual Carbon” goals, waste classification policies, and the “Action Plan for Comprehensive Solid Waste Management” form strong support
3. Technological Inflection Point Reached
   : The maturity of AI multi-modal technology has reached the critical point of large-scale application, and the investment window has opened
4. Rising Capital Enthusiasm
   : Industrial capital and government funds accelerate layout, and industry financing events occur frequently

:

1. Technology-Driven
   : Intelligent sorting solution providers with independent intellectual property rights and multi-modal technology capabilities
2. Scenario-Enabled
   : Enterprises with mature cases in high-value scenarios such as plastic recycling, electronic waste, and automobile dismantling
3. Platform-Type
   : Platform enterprises that build integrated operation of recycling networks and sorting services

:

• Be alert to substitution risks brought by changes in technical routes
• Pay attention to the impact of policy subsidy withdrawal on profitability
• Attach importance to the transmission of downstream bulk commodity price fluctuations to recycling value

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[1] Zhiyan Consulting - Report on the Operation Status and Development Trend of China’s Circular Economy Industry (May 2025)
[2] China Material Recycling Association - 2024 Renewable Resource Recycling Industry Data
[3] Fortune Business Insights - Digital Waste Management Solutions Market Report (December 2024)
[4] 36Kr - Report on Guangzhou Nine-Claw Intelligence’s Pre-A Round of Financing
[5] China Material Recycling Association - Top 10 Investment Cases in the Plastic Recycling Industry 2025

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